Kelso — 17 Sep 2025
Bet Smart & Win
Races: 7 (1–7)
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Our AI breaks down each bookmaker’s overround to uncover true fair value and identify Above-Fair (AF) plays.
How we pick winners
- Overround: 100–115% (green)
- Runners: 8–12
- Value: AF only when NP > IP
- Class: 5, 4 or 3
- Jockey: on strict whitelist
- NP: ≥ 27 and IP: below NP
1
15:53 — Borders Carers Centre Novices' Hurdle (GBB) — 2m4f189y
Overround: 112%
Class: 4
Runners: 5
#1 Jackson Lamb (Form: 28-431)
J: Alex HarveyT: John C McConnellRTF%: 38
NP: 44%IP: 53%
15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Irish winner in thin novice; strongest win chance though price-heavy.
#3 Jentobello (Form: R-1132)
J: Brian HughesT: Iain JardineRTF%: 28
NP: 31%IP: 28%
14/2070%
Details
Why we like this
- Course-suited, NP>IP value; main danger to fav.
#5 Magic Gloves (Form: P21-)
J: Derek FoxT: Lucinda Russell & M ScudamoreRTF%: 54
NP: 18%IP: 26%
12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Progressive 4yo; frame chance if pace lifts.
2
16:25 — Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle (GBB) — 2m4f189y
Overround: 114%
Class: 2
Runners: 8
#7 Divilabother (Form: 2-0221)
J: Harry ReedT: Tristan DavidsonRTF%: 43
NP: 30%IP: 22%
16/2080%
Details
Why we like this
- Improver; Above Fair in ideal 8-runner setup.
#3 Luttrell Lad (Form: 74-442)
J: Mrs Izzie HillT: Tom LaceyRTF%: 100
NP: 27%IP: 23%
15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent; NP>IP value, stays the trip.
#5 Rockview Consort (Form: 6/4352)
J: Alex HarveyT: John C McConnellRTF%: 41
NP: 19%IP: 26%
13/2065%
Details
Why we like this
- Strong traveler; place claims if pace collapses.
3
17:00 — RBC Brewin Dolphin Hcp Chase (0–115) (GBB) — 2m5f133y
Overround: 115%
Class: 4
Runners: 10
#10 Let's Sail Away (Form: 991-22)
J: Stan SheppardT: Tom LaceyRTF%: 100
NP: 29%IP: 28%
16/2080%
Details
Why we like this
- Same mark as strong recent second; Fair trending AF.
#9 Cracking Destiny (Form: 63-413)
J: Craig NicholT: Ewan WhillansRTF%: 50
NP: 24%IP: 18%
17/2085%
Details
Why we like this
- Above Fair with NP>IP in a green 115% book; strong finisher.
#4 Nickelforce (Form: -23243)
J: Jack QuinlanT: Ben CaseRTF%: 50
NP: 15%IP: 18%
12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Reliable placer; Below Fair but frame chance remains.
4
17:30 — Abbey Fine Wines Handicap Hurdle (Div I) (0–100) — 2m2f25y
Overround: 114%
Class: 5
Runners: 11
#3 Ambassador (Form: 663331)
J: Joshua ThompsonT: Micky HammondRTF%: 50
NP: 28%IP: 40%
15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Dominant last time; price short of model value.
#8 Guillaume (Form: -26223)
J: Theo GillardT: Donald McCainRTF%: 55
NP: 26%IP: 20%
16/2080%
Details
Why we like this
- NP>IP, green book, 11-runner; Above Fair angle.
#1 Heart Above (Form: 5-2O44)
J: Henry BrookeT: Dianne SayerRTF%: 75
NP: 15%IP: 16%
12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Back to workable setup; place squeak.
5
18:00 — Abbey Fine Wines Handicap Hurdle (Div II) (0–100) — 2m2f25y
Overround: 113%
Class: 5
Runners: 10
#5 Milajess (Form: 12-233)
J: Joshua ThompsonT: Micky HammondRTF%: 50
NP: 31%IP: 20%
18/2090%
Details
Why we like this
- Clear Above Fair; reliable profile in thin contest.
#8 Huit Reflets (Form: -73482)
J: Jamie HamiltonT: Mark WalfordRTF%: 55
NP: 27%IP: 31%
15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Recent near-miss; Below Fair at current quotes.
#1 She's Notjoeking (Form: 9234P-)
J: Conner McCannT: Lucinda Russell & M ScudamoreRTF%: 54
NP: 16%IP: 17%
13/2065%
Details
Why we like this
- Seasonal return off fair mark; fits trip/ground.
6
18:30 — Belhaven Brewery Handicap Chase (GBB) (0–135) — 2m1f14y
Overround: 112%
Class: 3
Runners: 7
#3 Primoz (Form: F3107-)
J: Derek FoxT: Lucinda Russell & M ScudamoreRTF%: 54
NP: 33%IP: 26%
18/2090%
Details
Why we like this
- Class drop; Above Fair with upside on sharp track.
#1 Pay The Piper (Form: 23232-)
J: Danny McMenaminT: Ann HamiltonRTF%: 64
NP: 30%IP: 26%
17/2085%
Details
Why we like this
- Course-suited; Fair to AF value, strong place anchor.
#4 Malystic (Form: F66-43)
J: Brian HughesT: Peter NivenRTF%: 62
NP: 19%IP: 14%
15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- NP>IP in 7-runner; Above Fair each-way profile.
7
19:00 — racingtv.com/freetrial Open NH Flat Race (GBB) — 2m51y
Overround: 115%
Class: 4
Runners: 8
#2 Nobotheratall (Form: U-3)
J: Harry ReedT: Tristan DavidsonRTF%: 43
NP: 34%IP: 33%
17/2085%
Details
Why we like this
- Fair to AF borderline; strong bumper profile.
#5 Gijima (Form: 3)
J: Gregor WalkingshawT: Lucinda Russell & M ScudamoreRTF%: 54
NP: 33%IP: 38%
15/2075%
Details
Why we like this
- Big chance but Below Fair at current tissue.
#4 Dotties Promise (Form: 3)
J: Nathan MoscropT: Susan CorbettRTF%: 77
NP: 16%IP: 18%
12/2060%
Details
Why we like this
- Solid debut; place angle in unknowns field.
NAP
Kelso — NAP
Overround: 113%Class: 5Runners: 10
#5 Milajess (Form: 12-233)
J: Joshua ThompsonT: Micky Hammond
NP: 31%IP: 20%19/2095%
Details
Why we like this
- Reliable profile; NP comfortably above IP in a green book.