Bet Smart & Win — Kelso Race Preview
Tuesday 18 November 2025 • 6 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Charlie Maggs
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 3m 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Proven on soft ground with winning 3m form. Stays well and should be prominent on this sharp track. Solid staying SecEff-J profile and Above Fair value at current odds.
Details
- J: Joe Williamson
- T: Philip Kirby
- Trip: 3m 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Stays all day and handles most ground. High completion rate and reliable jumper. Fair value as a solid each-way type if the pace is honest.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: Jackie Stephen
- Trip: 3m 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Has form on soft and stays the trip but the model flags only Below Fair value at current prices. Needs plenty to drop right in-running.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Patrick Neville
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Soft-ground form is strong and the longer trip should suit on pedigree. SecEff-J suggests he stays on powerfully. Chase debut is the question but Above Fair value makes him very interesting.
Details
- J: Jamie Hamilton
- T: Mark Walford
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Experienced chaser who stays well and handles ease underfoot. Dour stayer on the figures and a solid, Fair-value contender.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Sandy Thomson
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
SecEff-J from hurdles is excellent, suggesting a strong finisher. However, soft ground and chasing technique are unknowns and the model sees Below Fair value at current quotes.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Proven on soft/heavy and shaped like this longer trip is ideal. Top-class SecEff-J profile for this small field, but the model marks him Below Fair at cramped odds.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Point winner on heavy ground and from a red-hot yard. Hurdling technique must be taken on trust but the model sees Fair value against the favourite.
Details
- J: Shane Fenelon
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 2m 4f 189y
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Consistent performer who handles soft and stays the trip well enough. Workmanlike SecEff-J figures but offers Fair value in a shallow race.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Best SecEff-J in the field on previous C&D run and the sharp 2m trip looks ideal. Ground is a slight unknown and the model feels the market has overreacted, flagging Below Fair value.
Details
- J: Patrick Wadge
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Comfortable on soft and the trip should prove ideal. Fall last time is a slight worry, but overall profile is competitive and priced about Fair.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Coming here off a win and brings solid but not spectacular SecEff-J from slightly easier contests. Faces stronger opposition but rated a Fair-value player.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Stuart Coltherd
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Proven on soft and effective at this sharp 2m trip. Sound jumper with a preference for prominent tactics; the model sees him as a Fair-value contender.
Details
- J: Robert Dunne
- T: Tom Gretton
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
C&D winner whose SecEff-J for this track and trip is excellent. A previous fall is a minor concern but generally a solid jumper and fairly priced.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Conditions look ideal and recent form is reasonable, but the model feels the market has him slightly too short, labelling him Below Fair at current odds.
Details
- J: Joshua Thompson
- T: Micky Hammond
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: 28%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
C&D winner on soft with the strongest SecEff-J figure in the race. Jumping is very reliable and she looks set to get an ideal pace set-up. Fair value but with standout winning credentials.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Soft-ground winner and effective at this distance. Yard in form and a strong pace will suit, but current market has him about Fair rather than outstanding value.
Details
- J: Edward Austin
- T: George Bewley
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Soft-ground form is strong and the model suggests there may still be improvement to come at this trip. Pulled up two starts back is forgiven and odds offer an Above Fair edge.
Analysis
Perfect C&D winner on soft ground with the standout SecEff-J figure in this line-up. Jumping is rock-solid, the yard is in fair form, and today’s conditions mirror her recent success. This is the “run-that-wins” scenario most strongly aligned with the model — back with confidence.
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds.
Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%,removing the bookmaker’s margin.
Ideally you want the Probability(Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability.