Bet Smart & Win — Kelso Race Preview
Saturday 25 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: J O’Keeffe
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Strong favourite; placed on all three hurdle starts and holds a clear value edge.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: D McCain
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Solid form; fair value to chase the favourite home.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Lucinda & Scud
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
From a powerful yard; respected for place purposes.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Lucinda & Scud
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Clear value edge; stable debut promised more—leading chance.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: P Neville
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Closely matched with the fav; rock-solid contender.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: D Skelton
- Trip: 2m 7f 96y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Top yard; winning form; firmly in the mix.
Details
- J: Ryan Mania
- T: P Robson
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Hexham winner last time; value to follow up.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: J Stephen
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Good recent second; key player on current form.
Details
- J: Bruce Lynn
- T: N Alexander
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Shrewd yard; capable of going close in this grade.
Details
- J: Charlie Maggs
- T: D Sayer
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
In form and sets the standard; narrow but solid value edge.
Details
- J: Alan Doyle
- T: Lucinda & Scud
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Main danger; likely to be suited by conditions.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: D McCain
- Trip: 2m 51y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Unexposed; entitled to step forward second run back.
Details
- J: Shane Fenelon
- T: M Bowen
- Trip: 3m 2f 39y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Market leader in a tight feature; solid recent form.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: N Richards
- Trip: 3m 2f 39y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Classy sort; major player if cutting out errors.
Details
- J: Alan Doyle
- T: Lucinda & Scud
- Trip: 3m 2f 39y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Second-season chaser with upside; danger to all.
Details
- J: David Bass
- T: C Longsdon
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Narrow favourite with a small value cushion; sets the bar.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: D Skelton
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Very close on the figures; serious threat to the fav.
Details
- J: Craig Nichol
- T: A M Thomson
- Trip: 2m 1f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Consistent; holds each-way claims if reproducing best.
Details
- J: Toby McCain-Mitchell
- T: T Lacey
- Trip: 2m 6f 151y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
C&D winner; handicap debut; model’s strongest selection with clear value edge.
Details
- J: Conner McCann
- T: Lucinda & Scud
- Trip: 2m 6f 151y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Handicapping now; clear scope to progress; chief danger.
Details
- J: Lewis Saunders
- T: A M Thomson
- Trip: 2m 6f 151y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Stable debut; step up in trip looks a plus; solid place claims.
Analysis
C&D winner making handicap debut for an in-form yard; NP 32% vs IP 29% with ideal conditions. Back with confidence.
Details
- Race: R7 — RacingTV/Freetrial Conditional Jockeys’ Training Series Handicap Hurdle
- Trip: 2m 6f 151y • Class 4 • Overround: 111%
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —