How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20% but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Kempton Park 03/09/25
#1 The Quiet Gent (Form: 1-2607)
Track-return angle with efficient 7f profile; NP exceeds IP within target overround producing a confident model edge.
6:00 Kempton – Unibet Novice Stakes (GBB) (7f, 3 runners, Standard To Slow, Class 5)
#2 Ultrasoul (Form: 623-23)
Clear form pick but market heavy; normalized trails implied making this below fair despite strong win chance.
#3 Eliza Bennet (Form: 2-5823)
Nearest on RPRs with rider uplift; slight NP over IP suggests a fair stance at current terms.
#1 Edward Sexton (Form: —)
Outsider with limited recent efficiency signals; remains below fair on win metrics.
Analysis
Ultrasoul most likely winner; Eliza Bennet the fair alternative; Edward Sexton third best on projections.
6:30 Kempton – Try Unibet’s New Improved Acca Boosts Apprentice Handicap (0-68) (7f, 8 runners, Standard To Slow, Class 5)
#2 Silca Bay (Form: -63431)
Progressive with cheekpieces retained; NP comfortably tops IP within target overround, ideal 7f SecEff.
#3 Mamma Maria (Form: 555-12)
Strong stable and recent form, though implied slightly rich versus model; remains second pick on ability.
#5 Initial Blue (Form: -98903)
Recent uptick and workable mark; NP over IP gives a playable placing angle.
Analysis
Silca Bay the value win; Mamma Maria danger; Initial Blue may outrun odds for a place.
7:00 Kempton – Unibet More Extra Place Races Maiden Stakes (GBB) (2yo) (7f, 12 runners, Standard To Slow, Class 4)
#5 King Of Thunder (Form: 4)
Best of the experienced; model projects improvement with NP well clear of IP.
#2 Devon Island (Form: —)
High-profile debutant; market likely firm but slightly over model’s fair line.
#6 Lifeguard (Form: —)
Sneaky pedigree with top rider; NP comfortably ahead of IP for an each-way shape.
Analysis
King Of Thunder gets the nod; Devon Island respected on debut; Lifeguard the value outsider.
7:30 Kempton – Unibet Zero% Mission/EBF Novice Stakes (GBB) (2yo) (6f, 12 runners, Standard To Slow, Class 4)
#6 Monarch’s Gold (Form: —)
Interesting newcomer with tactical speed; NP tops field and clears IP for positive value.
#1 Mr Seagull (Form: 1)
Solid debut winner but implied a touch ahead of model; strong win chance but slightly below fair.
#5 Hypnotised (Form: —)
Pedigree and rider combination positive; NP over IP supports an each-way stance.
Analysis
Monarch’s Gold value selection; Mr Seagull clear form pick; Hypnotised could hit the frame.
8:00 Kempton – Unibet/EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (GBB) (1m3f219y, 5 runners, Standard To Slow, Class 5)
#2 Just Keep Flying (Form: 1)
Debut winner with stamina to spare; NP edges IP and profile suits the longer trip.
#3 Club Class (Form: -32323)
Reliable placed form; small NP over IP with rider uplift keeps her competitive.
#5 Whatamoon (Form: 624)
Staying profile fits the test; NP over IP gives a positive each-way angle.
Analysis
Just Keep Flying most likely; Club Class solid threat; Whatamoon value for minor money.
8:30 Kempton – Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Handicap (0-85) (7f, 8 runners, Standard To Slow, Class 4)
#1 The Quiet Gent (Form: 1-2607)
Returns to scene of solid novice; model’s NP comfortably ahead of IP for an Above Fair stance.
#3 Preanka (Form: 16-2)
Fresh and well-drawn; NP over IP with strong closing fractions projected.
#5 Enrolled (Form: 244710)
Mark still workable; model keeps NP above IP for frame potential.
Analysis
The Quiet Gent primary win bet; Preanka the danger; Enrolled value for places.
9:00 Kempton – Try Unibet’s New Improved Acca Boosts Fillies’ Handicap (0-78) (6f, 10 runners, Standard To Slow, Class 4)
#2 Scarboroughwarning (Form: 343529)
Consistent and well-suited to track; NP over IP within target overround highlights value.
#9 Court Drive (Form: 643751)
Comes here off a win; NP notably higher than IP for a pronounced value pocket.
#3 Lady Wingalong (Form: 755214)
Tactically versatile and gets rider uplift; sits near fair with minor medal upside.
Analysis
Scarboroughwarning preferred on value; Court Drive rates a major threat; Lady Wingalong can fill the frame.
Notes
Overround colour guide: 100%–115% 116%–117% 118%+ ≤99%
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair