Bet Smart & Win — Kempton Race Preview
Monday 03 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: Joseph Parr
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis: Dual recent winner; C&D suits. Top chance but price is below fair (IP>NP).
Details
- J: Joe Leavy
- T: Mark Loughnane
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis: Two good recent thirds; above fair with NP>IP.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: Brian Toomey
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis: Reliable placer; fair to fill the frame.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis: Strong yard; stamina pedigree; fair with NP>IP.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis: Late-season debut hotspot; NP>IP for an above-fair angle.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis: Well-regarded staying type; fair, scope to improve.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Jane Chapple-Hyam
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis: Clear form pick but price is short (IP>NP) — limited value.
Details
- J: Neil Callan
- T: John Butler
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis: Debut danger; NP well over IP — above fair.
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds
- T: Roger Teal
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis: Likely improver second up; fair to sneak a place.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis: Progressive 3yo; clear value signal (NP>IP).
Details
- J: Edward Greatrex
- T: Jack Channon
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis: On the up; now near fair at the top of the market.
Details
- J: Neil Callan
- T: Tom Clover
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis: Classy sort; fair each-way claims.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis: 3yo allowance helps; narrow edge at fair-to-slight value.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis: Highest class if near peak; above fair on price dynamics.
Details
- J: Pierre-Louis Jamin
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 68%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis: Honest Listed performer; fair for a placing.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 113%
Analysis: 3/3 at Kempton; model’s strongest angle with NP>IP.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 113%
Analysis: Strong-finishing qualifier; above fair to place.
Details
- J: William Carver
- T: Jamie Osborne
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 15%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 113%
Analysis: In form; fair despite class rise.
Details
- J: Edward Greatrex
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis: Recent C&D scorer; fair-to-slight value.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: John & Sean Quinn
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis: Solid sequence; above fair at current terms.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Simon Dow
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis: Four-time C&D winner; fair-to-above fair back at favoured venue.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Roger Teal
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis: Consistent; strong place credentials; above fair.
Details
- J: Neil Callan
- T: John Butler
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis: Recent win; prominent sit expected; fair/marginal value.
Details
- J: Edward Greatrex
- T: Mark Loughnane
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis: Stays and handles surface; fair for minor money.
Analysis
3-from-3 in Kempton handicaps; ideal pace/draw; NP exceeds IP for an above-fair rating. Back with confidence.