Bet Smart & Win — Kempton Race Preview
Wednesday 05 November 2025 • 9 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: Dean Ivory
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Form pick; normalization boosts value profile; strong player.
Details
- J: Dylan Hogan
- T: Andi Brown
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
C&D winner on a fair mark; solid each-way angle.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Adrian Wintle
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 26%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Likely market leader; less value post-overround but respected.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Powerful yard & profile; model-confirmed favourite.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Interesting newcomer; respected on yard/jockey combo.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Sets the form standard; place claims at least.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Marco Botti
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Scope to improve past experienced rival; narrow vote.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Solid form but proving expensive; still commands respect.
Details
- J: Neil Callan
- T: David Evans
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Needs a chunk more on the figures.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Value alternative to the fav; solid form base.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
C&D winner; obvious form pick; major chance.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent operator; holds place claims.
Details
- J: Finley Marsh
- T: Richard Hughes
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Debutant with positive stable signals; shortlist.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Well-bred; market likely informative; danger.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Another with smart credentials; each-way potential.
Details
- J: Neil Callan
- T: George Baker
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Dangerously treated; value angle on recent figures.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby
- T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
In form; well-in under penalty; huge player.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: Charles Hills
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 76%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Reliable profile; another with figures to contend.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: Michael Appleby
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Improver; penalty feasible; leading claims.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid on best form; can get involved.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Tom Clover
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Classy type; slight questions but respected.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: Chris Dwyer
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Progressive 3yo; profile aligned with our model; major chance.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Chris Gordon
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Consistent; main danger on balance of form.
Details
- J: William Carson
- T: Michael Attwater
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
C&D winner; place chance at least.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Back down in trip; has the beating of these on balance.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Form ties; capable of reversing with the right setup.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 1m2f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Penalised but consistent; cannot be discounted.