Bet Smart & Win — Kempton Race Preview
Wed 15/10/25 • 8 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
-
Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Jamie Osborne
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 24
- Odds (Dec): 4.35
Analysis
Highest NP and AF edge in a competitive apprentice handicap.
Details
- J: Ryan Kavanagh
- T: Conrad Allen
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50
- Odds (Dec): 7.14
Analysis
Course-proven sprinter; AF value and solid place claims.
Details
- J: Liam Wright
- T: George Baker
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 40
- Odds (Dec): 11.11
Analysis
Meets AF value criteria; completes the shortlist.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 64
- Odds (Dec): 3.12
Analysis
Power yard/jockey; AF and clear top on NP. Field size prevents qualifier.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 57
- Odds (Dec): 4.17
Analysis
Experience angle; AF and second best on figures.
Details
- J: Silvestre De Sousa
- T: William Knight
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 59
- Odds (Dec): 11.11
Analysis
Early promise; AF and one for the places.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 47
- Odds (Dec): 3.85
Analysis
Best form in the field; clear top pick though class prevents qualifier.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: Marcus Tregoning
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 67
- Odds (Dec): 5.88
Analysis
Solid place claims on figures.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Owen Burrows
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 70
- Odds (Dec): 6.67
Analysis
Interesting newcomer; respected on yard RTF.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 57
- Odds (Dec): 2.22
Analysis
All strict criteria met (OV green, Class 5, 9 runners, whitelist jockey, NP≥27 and > IP, AF). Clear standard-setter.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: S Woods
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 31
- Odds (Dec): 4.76
Analysis
Consistent and next best; AF but below NP band.
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds
- T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 42
- Odds (Dec): 14.29
Analysis
Newcomer; completes the trio.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: Joseph Parr
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds (Dec): 4.35
Analysis
Form selection; AF and should be involved.
Details
- J: Silvestre De Sousa
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 14
- Odds (Dec): 7.69
Analysis
Consistent; AF and rates a danger.
Details
- J: Harry Davies
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 56
- Odds (Dec): 9.09
Analysis
Recent winner; AF and in the mix.
Details
- J: Neil Callan
- T: George Baker
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 40
- Odds (Dec): 3.45
Analysis
Favoured; AF and top of the figures but field size blocks qualifier.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Michael Herrington
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 27
- Odds (Dec): 6.25
Analysis
Tactical angle; AF and main danger.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: John & Sean Quinn
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 54
- Odds (Dec): 7.69
Analysis
Reliable; AF and solid for a place.
Details
- J: Elizabeth Gale
- T: Jeremy Scott
- Trip: 1m7f218y
- Trainer RTF%: 33
- Odds (Dec): 3.70
Analysis
Arrives in top form; AF and obvious chance but field size blocks qualifier.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 1m7f218y
- Trainer RTF%: 51
- Odds (Dec): 4.35
Analysis
Major player; AF and strong staying credentials.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: Bernard Llewellyn
- Trip: 1m7f218y
- Trainer RTF%: 67
- Odds (Dec): 9.09
Analysis
Value for the frame with whitelist jockey aboard.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: William Knight
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 59
- Odds (Dec): 4.17
Analysis
C&D winner in form; AF and leading claims.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 65
- Odds (Dec): 9.09
Analysis
Consistent profile; AF and solid place angle.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: Stuart Williams
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 53
- Odds (Dec): 11.11
Analysis
In good heart; AF value to hit the frame.
Analysis
Strong favourite, whitelist jockey, proven form, NP well above IP and within model thresholds. Meets all strict criteria — back with confidence.