Bet Smart & Win — Kempton Race Preview
Tuesday 21 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: George Boughey
- RPR: 66
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds (dec): 4.55
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Strong value (NP > IP) in an efficient 108% book; leading chance.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Richard Spencer
- RPR: 68
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (dec): 5.56
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
On the upgrade; fair value at current price.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Michael Bell
- RPR: 69
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds (dec): 6.67
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Top booking adds confidence; figures say a shade below fair.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: David Menuisier
- RPR: 85
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds (dec): 3.70
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Highest NP with near-perfect alignment; clear pick.
Details
- J: Ray Dawson
- T: Roger Varian
- RPR: 78
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (dec): 4.55
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Form strong but NP<IP implies below-fair at current quotes.
Details
- J: Jamie Spencer
- T: Ollie Sangster
- RPR: 79
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds (dec): 5.56
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid place claims; a shade under fair right now.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Clive Cox
- RPR: 91
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (dec): 2.78
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Clear form leader but price is short versus model.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Archie Watson
- RPR: 88
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds (dec): 3.03
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Strong chance but margin heavy on price; value light.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: Oliver Cole
- RPR: 78
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds (dec): 9.09
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Better value for a place angle than win.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
- RPR: 86
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds (dec): 2.78
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Front of market; model has him a touch under fair.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- RPR: 84
- Trainer RTF%: 77%
- Odds (dec): 2.78
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Neck-and-neck with Previous; price a bit tight.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: James Fanshawe
- RPR: 84
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds (dec): 7.69
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Perfect fair on the model; logical one for third.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: Ed Walker
- RPR: 79
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds (dec): 4.55
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Above Fair standout despite a higher overround; NAP material.
Details
- J: Benoit De La Sayette
- T: Patrick Owens
- RPR: 72
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (dec): 5.56
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Likeable profile; currently a touch under model price.
Details
- J: Rhys Clutterbuck
- T: Ross Burdon
- RPR: 75
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds (dec): 5.56
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Honest sort; sits just below the fair line.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: Jack Channon
- RPR: 101
- Trainer RTF%: 18%
- Odds (dec): 3.45
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
AF with solid probabilities; model top pick.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Richard Hannon
- RPR: 104
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds (dec): 5.00
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid contender; a shade under fair currently.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby
- T: James Tate
- RPR: 103
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds (dec): 7.69
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Roughly fair on figures; place claims.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
- RPR: 111
- Trainer RTF%: 18%
- Odds (dec): 4.35
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Strong AF value; clear top on model.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- RPR: 106
- Trainer RTF%: 77%
- Odds (dec): 4.55
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Main rival; a little under the fair line.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: George Scott
- RPR: 106
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds (dec): 5.56
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Capable stayer; wants a drift to be a bet.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby
- T: Amanda Perrett
- RPR: 86
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (dec): 4.55
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
AF rating confirms the top spot; solid profile.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Simon Pearce
- RPR: 81
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (dec): 5.56
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Needs help from the market to be a bet.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: James Tate
- RPR: 83
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds (dec): 6.67
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Capable but currently a shade below fair.
Analysis
AF value (NP 27% > IP 22%); ideal draw; well-suited to this Class 5 mile.
Details
- Race: Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap — 6:40
- Venue: Kempton (AW), Standard To Slow
- RPR: 79
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds (dec): 4.55
- Overround: 112%