Bet Smart & Win — Kempton Race Preview
Wednesday 29 October 2025 • 9 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Stuart Williams
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Above Fair (NP>IP). Step up to 7f on AW looks ideal; market support noted.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Fair value on recent win; stable form positive.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Handicap debut; workable mark; should be effective around here.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear form pick; Above Fair with Appleby tailwind.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Hughie Morrison
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Experienced and consistent; fair value claims.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid form; Below Fair on current prices but place player.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Hamad Al Jehani
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Well-bred newcomer; market speaks — but currently Below Fair (IP>NP).
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Solid placed form; marginally Below Fair on current quotes.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Interesting debutant; Below Fair on tissue.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong favourite on form; Below Fair (IP>NP) but the one to beat.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Notable newcomer; fair value with top yard.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Marcus Tregoning
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Reliable; Below Fair on tissue but solid place chance.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Consistent; Above Fair and well-treated on old form.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Charles Hills
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Model-fit; fair value; deserves respect.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Simon Dow
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
C&D winner; fair value each-way.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: Michael Appleby
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Progressive profile; fair value; confident selection.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Ross Burdon
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent handicapper; fair value spot.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: James Tate
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Capable; Below Fair at current tissue but not dismissed.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Last-time-out C&D winner; fair but not value at current quotes.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: David Menuisier
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent; Below Fair but solid place claims.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
C&D winner; Above Fair and attractive proposition.
Details
- J: Harry Davies
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
C&D winner; Above Fair; reliable profile.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Mark Loughnane
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Well-treated on old form; fair draw; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Dylan Cunha
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Lightly raced; handy mark; fair value.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Michael Herrington
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Recent winner; Above Fair; strong follow-up chance.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Jack Morland
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
C&D winner; Above Fair; big player.
Details
- J: William Carson
- T: Michael Attwater
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (forecast)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
C&D winner; fair value; can hit the frame.
Analysis
Progressive, proven on surface, race fits ideal profile. Back with confidence.