Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Tuesday 21 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Ned Fox
- T: Venetia Williams
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 10%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.6%
Analysis
Proven form on soft/heavy ground in France gives a significant edge on this testing track. SecEff-J is superior to rivals and he has contested stronger-paced races with credible finishes. Experienced hurdler who jumps reliably; NP < IP shows no value but he remains the most likely winner.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.6%
Analysis
Unproven on soft ground but by a sire whose progeny often handle testing conditions, and this trip looks ideal. Showed promise in points and is likely to be prominent in a race lacking depth. First run over hurdles for a new yard; profile is solid and value rated Fair.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 104.6%
Analysis
Flat form gives some hope for conditions but he remains unproven over hurdles on soft ground. Likely to race forwardly and could stick on for a place if others falter. Jumping is a question mark on debut and NP < IP marks him as Below Fair value.
Details
- J: Ellis Collier
- T: Bernard Llewellyn
- Trip: 2m 4f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Course winner on soft ground with ideal conditions and trip. Running consistently well and likely to be on the pace, making him hard to pass. Jockey claim is a bonus and NP > IP confirms Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Finn Lambert
- T: D J Jeffreys
- Trip: 2m 4f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Strong claims on soft ground with placed form on heavy and a step up in trip that looks a major positive. SecEff-J suggests he stays on dourly, a key asset in these conditions. Handicap mark looks workable and NP > IP points to Above Fair value; each-way if four places are on offer.
Details
- J: Tom Hutsby
- T: Tom Gretton
- Trip: 2m 4f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Consistent operator proven on soft ground and looks sure to run his race again. Often races handily and should get a perfect tow into the contest. Model flags him as Below Fair value but his reliability keeps him firmly in the frame mix.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.9%
Analysis
Flat form on soft ground is a huge positive and she should handle conditions better than most. Has valuable hurdling experience in a field where several are learning on the job. Clear form pick but NP is much lower than IP, signalling severe Below Fair value at the likely odds.
Details
- J: David Bass
- T: Max Comley
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.9%
Analysis
Heavy-ground Flat winner and the prime candidate to capitalise if the favourite fails to act. Unexposed and open to significant improvement now switched to hurdles. Value still rates Below Fair but she is a strong forecast option.
Details
- J: Miss Megan Bevan
- T: Ella Pickard
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.9%
Analysis
Complete outsider but has Flat form on soft ground and a run over hurdles already in the book. Will be a big price but could outrun those odds if the two principals underperform. Value is Fair for a rank outsider and she could sneak into third.
Details
- J: Conor O’Farrell
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.3%
Analysis
In excellent form with placings on soft and heavy ground and some course form in the book. SecEff-J is strong and she battles to the line, which is ideal for this test. Obvious contender but NP < IP makes her Below Fair value at current prices.
Details
- J: Richard Patrick
- T: Clive Boultbee-Brooks
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.3%
Analysis
Makes handicap debut off a potentially lenient mark after a promising run at Wincanton. Unproven on soft but her breeding offers hope that she will handle conditions and could be well treated. Absence is a slight concern but overall value is assessed as Fair.
Details
- J: Theo Gillard
- T: Donald McCain
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106.3%
Analysis
Won last time and is only 4lb higher, with proven soft-ground form. Should be race fit and in good heart, so cannot be discounted. Model still marks her as Below Fair value, but she has the form to be competitive.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 4f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.3%
Analysis
Ran a cracker on hurdle debut at Cheltenham on soft ground and that piece of form is far superior to anything else in this race. Step up in trip on this stamina-sapping track is a major positive. Standout on form and potential; NP < IP means the model rates him Below Fair but he remains a justified short-priced favourite.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m 4f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.3%
Analysis
Point winner on heavy ground so stamina and conditions will hold no fears. Unseen since May but the stable does well with this type and he could be anything on hurdles debut. Value still reads Below Fair but he is the clear danger to the favourite.
Details
- J: Charlie Hammond
- T: Stuart Edmunds
- Trip: 2m 4f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105.3%
Analysis
Has experience and a recent run this season, so may be fitter than some rivals. Needs to improve significantly on bare form but could pick up the pieces for minor money. Value is Fair for an outsider with match fitness on his side.
Details
- J: Charlie Hammond
- T: Stuart Edmunds
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.4%
Analysis
Proven on soft and heavy ground and tends to go well fresh, so these conditions look ideal. Well handicapped on last season’s form and should strip fitter for the reappearance run. SecEff-J is strong for this level and NP = IP flags perfect Fair value in a race that suits him well.
Details
- J: Kevin Brogan
- T: Billy Aprahamian
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.4%
Analysis
Consistent sort who acts well on soft ground and should be suited by this sharp track. Carries a penalty for a recent win but is clearly in form and arrives with confidence high. Rated Fair value and a major player.
Details
- J: Tom Midgley
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 1m 7f 113y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108.4%
Analysis
Holds solid soft-ground form and was not beaten far in better contests last season. Runs off a competitive mark and should be involved at the business end. Model has him at Fair value and he completes a very solid shortlist.
Analysis
Proven soft-ground performer who is well handicapped on last season’s efforts and shaped as though fitness would come on for the reappearance run. Strong finishing efforts last term, reliable jumping and a trainer–jockey combination in good nick all point to a peak run here. With NP = IP he rates solid Fair value and the model’s preferred “run-that-wins” scenario at Leicester.