Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: Juddmonte British EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 1:35
First: Coyy
Age: 2
Weight: 9-3
Form: 4 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Charles Bishop
Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton
Trainer RTF% Form: 42%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 38
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Mighty Vega
Age: 2
Weight: 9-5
Form: 5 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer: Lemos De Souza
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 60
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Coyy has shown strong form in recent outings and benefits from a top jockey-trainer combination. Mighty Vega has the highest Top Speed (60) in the field but lacks consistency. The going should suit both, but Coyy’s tactical speed gives her the edge.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Mighty Vega’s stamina may come into play, but Coyy’s early speed is likely decisive on good ground.

Race Name: Carling King Richard III Cup Handicap
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 2:05
First: Completely Random
Age: 4
Weight: 9-1
Form: 6254-1 (Improving)
Going: Good
Jockey: Trevor Whelan
Trainer: Harry Charlton
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 92
TS: 86
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Sergeant Wilko
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4
Form: 11105- (Consistent)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 95
TS: 99
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Completely Random is progressive and well-weighted. Sergeant Wilko has class but carries a penalty. The race could hinge on whether Completely Random handles the step up in class.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Sergeant Wilko’s stamina may prove decisive, but Completely Random’s recent win suggests he’s the one to beat.

Race Name: Madri Excepcional Maiden Stakes
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 2:35
First: Naval Command
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 4- (Promising debut)
Going: Good
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF% Form: 54%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Asmen Warrior
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 7-2 (Experienced)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 88
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Naval Command is bred for this trip and represents a top yard. Asmen Warrior has race fitness but may lack the class of the favorite.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Asmen Warrior’s experience could be a factor, but Naval Command is expected to dominate.

Race Name: Aspall Suffolk Cyder Handicap
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 3:10
First: Guendolen
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 45273- (Consistent)
Going: Good
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Harry Eustace
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 57
TS: 52
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Douglas Dc
Age: 7
Weight: 9-4
Form: -46733 (Experienced)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Jack Doughty
Trainer: Tony Carroll
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 55
TS: 55
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Guendolen has been consistent in better company and drops in class here. Douglas Dc is battle-hardened but may lack the turn of foot needed.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens significantly, Douglas Dc’s stamina could come into play, but Guendolen’s class should prevail on good ground.

Race Name: Coors Handicap
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 3:45
First: Knights Gold
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 804-51 (Improving)
Going: Good
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 70
TS: 44
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Mamma Maria
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 74555- (Consistent)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Adam Farragher
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 59%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 65
TS: 72
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Knights Gold is progressive and won well last time. Mamma Maria has solid form but may need further to be seen at her best.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Mamma Maria could stay on well, but Knights Gold’s recent improvement makes him the one to beat.

Race Name: Rekorderlig Premium Fruit Cider Handicap
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 4:20
First: Invincible Speed
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 8-7761 (Peaking)
Going: Good
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Mark Loughnane
Trainer RTF% Form: 69%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Bay Breeze
Age: 6
Weight: 8-12
Form: 3716-5 (Experienced)
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: James Sullivan
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 69
TS: 83
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Invincible Speed arrives in form and is well-handicapped. Bay Breeze is consistent but may struggle to concede weight to the selection.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Bay Breeze’s experience could prove valuable, but Invincible Speed’s recent win suggests he’s the form pick.

Race Name: Salt Jute IPA Handicap
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Leicester
Time of Race: 4:50
First: Raft Up
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 551162 (Progressive)
Going: Good
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Harriet Bethell
Trainer RTF% Form: 75%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 57
TS: 50
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Grand Citadel
Age: 4
Weight: 9-3
Form: 67424- (Consistent)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Shane Kelly
Trainer: Pam Sly
Trainer RTF% Form: –
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 54
TS: 59
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Raft Up is improving rapidly and gets weight from his rivals. Grand Citadel is consistent but may need softer ground to show his best.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground dries out further, Grand Citadel could challenge, but Raft Up’s progressive profile makes him the selection.

Best Value for Money Horse (Leicester, 26th April 2025):
Horse: Naval Command
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 4- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: –
TS: –
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Naval Command has shown strong potential in limited outings and is expected to improve over longer distances, making him a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit him, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Naval Command presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Leicester – 26th April 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

Juddmonte British EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (13:35)

• Coyy (Probability: 80%)
• Farough (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Carling King Richard III Cup Handicap (14:05)

• Completely Random (Probability: 85%)
• Trilby (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

Madri Excepcional Maiden Stakes (14:35)

• Naval Command (Probability: 82%)
• Skimmer (Probability: 80%)

Aspall Suffolk Cyder Handicap (15:10)

• Guendolen (Probability: 80%)
• Sceptic (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Coors Handicap (15:45)

• Ornately (Probability: 85%)
• Knights Gold (Probability: 80%)

Leicester 16:20

• Justcallmepete (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
• Raft Up (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Completely Random (14:05, Leicester, 85%)
2. Ornately (15:45, Leicester, 85%)
3. Naval Command (14:35, Leicester, 82%)
4. Guendolen (15:10, Leicester, 80%)

Note: All selections meet the ≥80% probability threshold.

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Completely Random (14:05, Leicester)
2. Ornately (15:45, Leicester)
3. Naval Command (14:35, Leicester)
4. Guendolen (15:10, Leicester)

Doubles

1. Completely Random + Ornately
2. Completely Random + Naval Command
3. Completely Random + Guendolen
4. Ornately + Naval Command
5. Ornately + Guendolen
6. Naval Command + Guendolen

Trebles

1. Completely Random + Ornately + Naval Command
2. Completely Random + Ornately + Guendolen
3. Completely Random + Naval Command + Guendolen
4. Ornately + Naval Command + Guendolen

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Completely Random + Ornately + Naval Command + Guendolen

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Guendolen (80%) –
• Highest Probability: Completely Random (85%) –
• Alternative if Needed: Skimmer (80%) –