Bet Smart & Win — Leopardstown Race Preview
Sun 19/10/25 • 7 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Wayne Lordan
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m 1f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 6/5 (2.20)
Analysis
Clear form pick; price short vs model (F).
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: D K Weld
- Trip: 1m 1f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 5/2 (3.50)
Analysis
Main danger on profile; market about right.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Noel Meade
- Trip: 1m 1f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 8/1 (8.00)
Analysis
Third pick; some AF edge at the price.
Details
- J: Robert Whearty
- T: G M Lyons
- Trip: 1m
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Solid course record; AF at current quotes.
Details
- J: Ray Dawson
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 9/4 (3.25)
Analysis
Fav on form; model has him close to fair.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: D K Weld
- Trip: 1m
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 9/2 (5.50)
Analysis
Unexposed; small AF differential.
Details
- J: Robbie Colgan
- T: Peter Lawlor
- Trip: 1m
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 2/1 (3.00)
Analysis
Top pick; AF slight vs market.
Details
- J: Keithen Kennedy
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 1m
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 10/3 (4.33)
Analysis
Right in the mix; close to fair.
Details
- J: Sam Coen
- T: Adrian McGuinness
- Trip: 1m
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 9/2 (5.50)
Analysis
Third pick; AF differential modest.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: J P Murtagh
- Trip: 1m 2f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 3/1 (4.00)
Analysis
Premier handicap winner; credible Listed chance.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 1m 2f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 10/3 (4.33)
Analysis
Fav in places; NP slightly under IP.
Details
- J: Declan McDonogh
- T: A P O’Brien
- Trip: 1m 2f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 9/1 (10.00)
Analysis
Each-way angle if drifting.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: Mrs Denise Foster
- Trip: 1m 2f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 9/1 (10.00)
Analysis
Front-running type; price workable in big field.
Details
- J: Sam Coen
- T: Ciaran Murphy
- Trip: 1m 2f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 15/2 (8.50)
Analysis
Prominent in market; competitive.
Details
- J: Chris Hayes
- T: D K Weld
- Trip: 1m 2f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 3/1 (4.00)
Analysis
Likely pacesetter; strong market position.
Details
- J: Adam Caffrey
- T: A Oliver
- Trip: 1m 4f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 13/2 (7.50)
Analysis
Progressive 3yo; interesting off light weight.
Details
- J: Ben Coen
- T: J P Murtagh
- Trip: 1m 4f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 7/2 (4.50)
Analysis
Market leader; model slightly cooler than price.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph G Murphy
- Trip: 1m 4f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 10/1 (11.00)
Analysis
Stays well; AF at double-figures.
Details
- J: Dylan Browne McMonagle
- T: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
- Trip: 7f 24y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 7/4 (2.75)
Analysis
“Run-that-wins” profile; AF with strong recent figure.
Details
- J: Sam Coen
- T: Andrew Slattery
- Trip: 7f 24y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 7/1 (8.00)
Analysis
Consistent placer; AF vs market.
Details
- J: —
- T: —
- Trip: 7f 24y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: 17/2 (9.50)
Analysis
Third string; value play to spice perms.