Bet Smart & Win — Limerick Race Preview
Tuesday 18 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Calum Hogan
- T: E McNamara
- Trip: 2m 2f 150y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 115%
Analysis
Formlines from a Galway fifth on heavy ground are strong for this level; trip and ground conditions ideal. SecEff-J from that Galway run suggests he stays on dourly in testing conditions, a key asset here. Reliable jumper with no recent falls; represents Above Fair value and is the clear form pick.
Details
- J: Niall Moore
- T: David Harry Kelly
- Trip: 2m 2f 150y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 115%
Analysis
Showed minor promise on soft ground; needs to prove stamina but pedigree suggests it’s possible. SecEff-J data is limited but finishing effort last time wasn’t discouraging. Completion rate is solid; represents Fair value and could plug on for a place.
Details
- J: Richard Deegan
- T: Paul Nolan
- Trip: 2m 2f 150y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 115%
Analysis
Unproven on heavy but has soft ground form; step up in trip could unlock improvement. SecEff-J profile is unremarkable but not poor; likely to be suited by a strong gallop. Jumping has been clean; a Below Fair outsider but one for the shortlist in a weak race.
Details
- J: Calum Hogan
- T: E McNamara
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Proven on heavy ground and over C&D, finishing a close second last time; ideal conditions. SecEff-J is excellent, showing a strong finishing effort from the last hurdle vs par for this track/going. A consistent and reliable jumper; offers Above Fair value and is the one to beat.
Details
- J: Sean Cleary-Farrell
- T: W P Mullins
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Won a point on heavy; Mullins runner commands respect but is unproven under Rules on this ground. SecEff-J from point form is strong but must translate to hurdles; market confidence is significant. Jumping in points was fine; value is Fair but the stable’s winter strike rate is a major positive.
Details
- J: Conor Clarke
- T: Emmet Mullins
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Form is on better ground; the big question is handling the heavy surface for the first time. SecEff-J from his wins shows a potent turn of foot, which may be blunted by the conditions. Has jumping experience; represents Fair value but is a tentative selection dependent on handling the going.
Details
- J: Eoin Staples
- T: Aidan Anthony Howard
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Excellent recent flat run on soft confirms well-being; proven on heavy over hurdles. SecEff-J from last hurdles run (4th) was solid; fitness edge from a recent run is crucial. One recent unseat is a minor concern, but offers Above Fair value and is the standout.
Details
- J: G B Noonan
- T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Consistent form on soft/heavy ground; recent placed effort shows she’s in good heart. SecEff-J suggests she grinds it out effectively; will be staying on when others have cried enough. Reliable jumper; value is Fair and she looks a solid place prospect.
Details
- J: Anna McGuinness
- T: Jeremiah Patrick Baragry
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Top weight but has winning form on heavy; will relish the testing conditions. SecEff-J figures are respectable; carries a penalty but is classy enough to be competitive. Jumping is generally sound; value is Fair and she should be in the firing line.
Details
- J: Patrick M O’Brien
- T: E McNamara
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Narrowly denied over C&D on heavy last time; perfectly handicapped to go one better. SecEff-J was strong in that race, just getting caught close home; should be suited by strong pace. Jumping was fluent; offers Above Fair value and is the most likely winner.
Details
- J: Eoin Staples
- T: Eamonn Francis Gallagher
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Consistent and proven on heavy ground; trainer’s 100% RTF% is a massive positive. SecEff-J profile is one of a relentless galloper; will be suited by a test of stamina. Reliable jumper; value is Above Fair and he will be pressing the leader late.
Details
- J: Michael Kenneally
- T: John Patrick Ryan
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 18%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Course winner on soft; down in weights and conditions are very much in her favour. SecEff-J suggests she is effective at this track; could outrun her odds. Jumping is generally sound; value is Fair and she is an interesting each-way player. Each-Way advised (terms: 4 places/1/5).
Details
- J: Shane O’Callaghan
- T: P J Rothwell
- Trip: 2m 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 116%
Analysis
Galway run on return should have blown away the cobwebs; has winning form on heavy. SecEff-J from that return was promising given it was his first run; should strip much fitter. Reliable jumper; offers Above Fair value and is well-handicapped to be competitive.
Details
- J: Patrick M O’Brien
- T: E McNamara
- Trip: 2m 5f
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 116%
Analysis
Won a handicap chase on heavy two starts back; reverting to hurdles from a tempting mark. SecEff-J from his win was powerful; clearly acts on the ground and stays well. Blundered and unseated last time is a concern, but value is Above Fair if he jumps cleanly.
Details
- J: John Aherne
- T: A M O’Grady
- Trip: 2m 5f
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 116%
Analysis
C&D winner on soft; return from break was poor but may have needed it; mark has dropped. SecEff-J from his winning sequence here was strong; capable of bouncing back. Usually a sound jumper; value is Fair and he could outrun his price.
Details
- J: Shane Markey
- T: Ross O’Sullivan
- Trip: 3m 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 117%
Analysis
Step up to 3m on heavy ground looks ideal; has placed form on soft. SecEff-J suggests he will relish this extreme stamina test; likely to be finishing strongest. Reliable jumper; offers Above Fair value and is well-suited by these new conditions.
Details
- J: Eoghan Finegan
- T: Anthony McCann
- Trip: 3m 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 117%
Analysis
C&D winner on soft/heavy; proven stayer in these conditions and arrives in form. SecEff-J from her C&D win was excellent, showing a potent finishing kick. Fell last time is a concern, but if confidence is intact, she’s a major player. Value is Fair.
Details
- J: Calum Hogan
- T: Eoin Griffin
- Trip: 3m 100y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 117%
Analysis
Won last time out on yielding; must prove herself on truly heavy ground but is in form. SecEff-J from her win was good; she is unexposed and could still be improving. Jumping is sound; represents Fair value and could be a player if handling the underfoot conditions.
Details
- J: Sarah Kavanagh
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Won a point-to-point on heavy ground; conditions and stamina are guaranteed. SecEff-J from his point win was dominant; the form has been boosted financially. No jumping concerns in a bumper; value is Fair and he sets a clear standard.
Details
- J: Ms E C Costello
- T: P M J Doyle
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Has placed form in bumpers on soft; should handle the ground and has experience edge. SecEff-J figures are solid; she will be staying on dourly up the straight. Consistent type; value is Fair and she looks the obvious danger for a stable in form.
Details
- J: Ms S K Breen
- T: P J Breen
- Trip: 2m 50y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Exposed form is moderate but he has experience on heavy ground. SecEff-J is poor compared to the principals but in a small field, could pick up the pieces. Represents Below Fair value but is the most likely of the remainder to sneak a place.
Analysis
Proven heavy ground and C&D form; strong SecEff-J finishing effort; reliable jumper; NP>IP value edge; trainer excels with these types. Heavy going, 2m trip and a likely strong pace scenario on this undulating track all play to his strengths. This is our Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Explanation
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds. Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%,removing the bookmaker’s margin. Ideally you want the Probability(Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability.
