Bet Smart & Win — Limerick Race Preview
Sun 19/10/25 • 7 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
-
Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Donagh Meyler
- T: Mrs John Harrington
- Trip: 2m70y
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds (decimal): 3.45
Analysis
Clear top on NP; AF vs market with a solid maiden profile.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: Peter Fahey
- Trip: 2m70y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (decimal): 4.17
Analysis
NP > IP; powerful yard, profiles as value second pick.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m70y
- Trainer RTF%: 66%
- Odds (decimal): 4.76
Analysis
Completes the trio; yard/jockey strength respected.
Details
- J: Daniel King
- T: John J Nallen
- Trip: 2m70y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds (decimal): 3.85
Analysis
Edges the market on NP; AF rating with solid profile.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m70y
- Trainer RTF%: 66%
- Odds (decimal): 3.85
Analysis
Joint on NP; preference to #5 is marginal and form-based.
Details
- J: Liam McKenna
- T: M A Molloy
- Trip: 2m70y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (decimal): 5.56
Analysis
Clear third; price-friendly AF edge.
Details
- J: Daniel King
- T: M A Molloy
- Trip: 2m3f92y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (decimal): 5.26
Analysis
Top on NP; AF value in a competitive heat.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m3f92y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (decimal): 7.14
Analysis
Second best; trainer/jockey combo strengthens claims.
Details
- J: Calum Hogan
- T: E Seymour
- Trip: 2m3f92y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds (decimal): 7.14
Analysis
Close to #3 on figures; price is fair for the chance.
Details
- J: Mr B M Coonan
- T: John Patrick Ryan
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds (decimal): 4.35
Analysis
Solid AF with a stamina profile for this series race.
Details
- J: Mr L P Shanahan
- T: E McNamara
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds (decimal): 7.14
Analysis
Second choice; aligned with staying claims.
Details
- J: Mr J H Williamson
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 66%
- Odds (decimal): 7.14
Analysis
Third on NP; yard form a plus.
Details
- J: Jack Kennedy
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (decimal): 6.25
Analysis
Model’s top in a deep National; AF edge with solid recent form.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: E Bolger
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds (decimal): 10.00
Analysis
Stays well; AF value and consistent profile.
Details
- J: Sean Flanagan
- T: E McNamara
- Trip: 3m
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds (decimal): 10.00
Analysis
Peak fitness angle; fair price relative to chance.
Details
- J: Michael Kenneally
- T: P J Rothwell
- Trip: 2m3f50y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds (decimal): 5.26
Analysis
Heads market on NP; AF differential supports favouritism.
Details
- J: Sam Ewing
- T: D E Fitzgerald
- Trip: 2m3f50y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (decimal): 5.88
Analysis
Close second; steady profile with AF value.
Details
- J: Sean O’Keeffe
- T: Paul Nolan
- Trip: 2m3f50y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (decimal): 7.14
Analysis
Third on NP; competitive price in a tight handicap.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m3f50y
- Trainer RTF%: 66%
- Odds (decimal): 3.57
Analysis
Strong AF and top NP; standout of the meeting.
Details
- J: Shane Fitzgerald
- T: David Kenneth Budds
- Trip: 2m3f50y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (decimal): 4.76
Analysis
Second on NP; experience angle noted.
Details
- J: Sean Flanagan
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m3f50y
- Trainer RTF%: 66%
- Odds (decimal): 4.76
Analysis
Joint second on NP; reliable yard, fair price.
Analysis
Highest NP of the day with AF value and strong yard form. Conditions suit for a winning start over fences.
Details
- J: Darragh O’Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Race: Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Beginners Chase (2m3f50y)
- Trainer RTF%: 66%
- Odds (decimal): 3.57