Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (3yo)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Limerick
Time of Race: 1:42
First: Wannabe Royal
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 3-22 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding, Soft in places
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 51%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 89
TS: 79
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Indigo Dream
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 7227- (Needs improvement)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Shane Foley
Trainer: Ross O’Sullivan
Trainer RTF% Form: 44%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 92
TS: 82
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Wannabe Royal has strong recent form, including a close second last time out, and benefits from a top jockey-trainer combo. Indigo Dream has shown flashes of ability but needs to find consistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens further, Wannabe Royal’s stamina edge could prove decisive. Indigo Dream may struggle if the race becomes tactical.
Race Name: Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden (3yo)
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Limerick
Time of Race: 2:17
First: Hostility
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 423- (Progressive)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 51%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 81
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Raykir
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 4-65 (Needs to step up)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Chris Hayes
Trainer: D K Weld
Trainer RTF% Form: 25%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 77
TS: 45
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Hostility has the highest OR and TS in the field, indicating class. Raykir is consistent but may lack the finishing speed to challenge the favorite.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms up, Hostility’s speed will be even more potent. Raykir may struggle if the pace is strong.
Race Name: Sinbin Events Maiden (4yo+)
Race Distance: 1m50y
Racecourse: Limerick
Time of Race: 2:52
First: Shaool
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4
Form: 764-2 (Strong recent form)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Ben Coen
Trainer: J P Murtagh
Trainer RTF% Form: 53%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 78
TS: 73
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Ina Mina
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4
Form: 03376- (Consistent)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Ronan Whelan
Trainer: K J Condon
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 74
TS: 76
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Shaool has the highest OR and is race-fit. Ina Mina is consistent but may lack the turn of foot needed to win.
Scenario Analysis: If the rain intensifies, Shaool’s stamina will be an asset. Ina Mina could struggle if the pace is slow.
Race Name: Munster Suite @ Limerick Handicap (Div I) (3yo+)
Race Distance: 1m50y
Racecourse: Limerick
Time of Race: 3:27
First: Martinelli
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 5917-3 (Improving)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: Kieran P Cotter
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 65
TS: 62
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Amavasya
Age: 3
Weight: 8-8
Form: 70-06 (Needs to improve)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: N G McCullagh
Trainer: M C Grassick
Trainer RTF% Form: 25%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 64
TS: 16
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Martinelli is in form and has a strong jockey booking. Amavasya is lightly raced but unproven.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground dries, Martinelli’s speed will be key. Amavasya may need softer conditions to contend.
Race Name: Munster Suite @ Limerick Handicap (Div II) (3yo+)
Race Distance: 1m50y
Racecourse: Limerick
Time of Race: 4:02
First: Vega’s Muse
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: 67-07 (Potential)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Shane Foley
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington
Trainer RTF% Form: 68%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 68
TS: 57
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Takeachancejimmy
Age: 11
Weight: 9-8
Form: /000-2 (Veteran)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Shay Wallace
Trainer: Nigel Thomas Slevin
Trainer RTF% Form: 10%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 62
TS: 40
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Vega’s Muse is lightly raced with scope for improvement. Takeachancejimmy is consistent but age may be a factor.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Vega’s Muse’s stamina will help. Takeachancejimmy may struggle if the pace is strong.
Race Name: Great National South Court Hotel Handicap (4yo+)
Race Distance: 1m50y
Racecourse: Limerick
Time of Race: 4:35
First: Artful Approach
Age: 4
Weight: 9-4
Form: 5134-2 (Strong recent form)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Jack Kearney
Trainer: Stephen Thorne
Trainer RTF% Form: 100%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: 89
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Fort Vega
Age: 5
Weight: 9-8
Form: 4/0-63 (Consistent)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: Ms Sheila Lavery
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 84
TS: 82
Probability: Second Horse High
Analysis: Artful Approach has the highest TS and is in form. Fort Vega is consistent but may lack the finishing kick.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms, Artful Approach’s speed will be key. Fort Vega may struggle if the race is tactical.
Race Name: Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (3yo)
Race Distance: 1m3f190y
Racecourse: Limerick
Time of Race: 5:10
First: Bay Colony
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 045-3 (Progressive)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Seamie Heffernan
Trainer: J A Stack
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 89
TS: 79
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Diamond Exchange
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 6-6 (Needs improvement)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Shane Foley
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington
Trainer RTF% Form: 68%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 66
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Bay Colony has the highest OR and is race-fit. Diamond Exchange is unproven but has potential.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Bay Colony’s stamina will be an asset. Diamond Exchange may need further.
Race Name: D & E Behan Handicap (4yo+ 0-60)
Race Distance: 1m3f190y
Racecourse: Limerick
Time of Race: 5:40
First: Out For A Stroll
Age: 4
Weight: 10-0
Form: 900/4- (Improving)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 51%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 58
TS: 44
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Fascinating Shadow
Age: 7
Weight: 10-1
Form: 5089-4 (Consistent)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: W J Lee
Trainer: John Joseph Hanlon
Trainer RTF% Form: 31%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 59
TS: 51
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Out For A Stroll is lightly raced and improving. Fascinating Shadow is consistent but may lack the upside.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Out For A Stroll’s stamina will help. Fascinating Shadow may struggle if the pace is strong.
Best Value for Money Horse at Limerick (25th April 2025)
Out of my analysis for Limerick, Artful Approach shows the best value for money based on:
- Age: 4 (Prime racing age)
- Weight: 9-4 (Favorable handicap mark)
- Form: 5134-2 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
- OR: 80 (Strong official rating)
- TS: 89 (Top Speed figure stands out)
- RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Artful Approach has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The yielding ground is expected to suit her, adding to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Artful Approach presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Limerick – 25th April 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (13:42)
- Wannabe Royal (89%)
- Indigo Dream (92%)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden (14:17)
- Admiral Churchill (85%)
- Aeon’s Aegis (80%)
Sinbin Events Maiden (14:52)
- Amplitude (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Broadstone (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Munster Suite @ Limerick Handicap (15:27)
- Chavajod (76%) [Flagged: <80%]
- James Henry (68%) [Flagged: <80%]
Munster Suite @ Limerick Handicap (16:02)
- Loingseoir (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Escape Act (66%) [Flagged: <80%]
Great National South Court Hotel Handicap (16:35)
- Nahori (74%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Finsceal Annie (72%) [Flagged: <80%]
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (17:10)
- Bay Colony (89%)
- Alba Chiara (85%)
D & E Behan Handicap (17:40)
- Takeachancejimmy (74%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Relevant Range (71%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Wannabe Royal (13:42, Limerick, 89%)
- Indigo Dream (13:42, Limerick, 92%)
- Admiral Churchill (14:17, Limerick, 85%)
- Bay Colony (17:10, Limerick, 89%)
Note: All selections meet the ≥80% threshold.
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Wannabe Royal (13:42, Limerick)
- Indigo Dream (13:42, Limerick)
- Admiral Churchill (14:17, Limerick)
- Bay Colony (17:10, Limerick)
Doubles
- Wannabe Royal + Indigo Dream
- Wannabe Royal + Admiral Churchill
- Wannabe Royal + Bay Colony
- Indigo Dream + Admiral Churchill
- Indigo Dream + Bay Colony
- Admiral Churchill + Bay Colony
Trebles
- Wannabe Royal + Indigo Dream + Admiral Churchill
- Wannabe Royal + Indigo Dream + Bay Colony
- Wannabe Royal + Admiral Churchill + Bay Colony
- Indigo Dream + Admiral Churchill + Bay Colony
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Wannabe Royal + Indigo Dream + Admiral Churchill + Bay Colony
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Admiral Churchill (85%) –
- Highest Probability: Indigo Dream (92%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Bay Colony (89%) –
