Bet Smart & Win — Lingfield Race Preview
Tuesday 04 November 2025 • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
The clear form pick; sets a solid standard.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Owen Burrows
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Newcomer with potential; model shows negative value.
Details
- J: William Carson
- T: Michael Madgwick
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Outsider; slight positive value but low win chance.
Details
- Status: Non-Runner
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 6f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Positive value on nursery debut (now NR).
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 6f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Market leader; model confirms positive value.
Details
- J: William Carver
- T: Jamie Osborne
- Trip: 6f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 8%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Respectable form; model shows negative value.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 6f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 79%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Most likely winner; slight negative value at forecast.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 6f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Interesting; model indicates negative value at current odds.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Oliver Cole
- Trip: 6f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Unexposed; odds not compelling on model.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Seeking a C&D double; perfectly fair value.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Eve Johnson Houghton
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent; fair value; solid place player.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid claims; fair value.
Details
- J: Finley Marsh
- T: Richard Hughes
- Trip: 5f6y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Could be suited by strong pace; slight negative value.
Details
- J: Alistair Rawlinson
- T: Simon Hodgson
- Trip: 5f6y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
C&D winner; fair value.
Details
- J: Gina Mangan
- T: Christopher Mason
- Trip: 5f6y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Market leader; slight negative value.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 1m7f169y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Unexposed stayer; fair value.
Details
- J: Joe Bradnam
- T: Michael Bell
- Trip: 1m7f169y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent; fair value.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 1m7f169y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
In good form; model finds positive value.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Mark Pattinson
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent; positive value angle.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Jim & Suzi Best
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
In good heart; fair value.
Details
- J: Neil Callan
- T: Brian Toomey
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Market leader; no positive value on model.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Ross Burdon
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Unpenalised for easy win; slight negative value but strong claims.
Details
- J: Jack Dace
- T: Michael Madgwick
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Respected; positive value assessment.
Details
- J: William Carson
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trip: 1m1y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent; fair value in an open contest.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 7f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Unpenalised for recent C&D win; fair value.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Adrian Wintle
- Trip: 7f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
In good form; model finds positive value.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Charlie Fellowes
- Trip: 7f1y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (forecast – not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Market leader; no extra value on model.