Bet Smart & Win — Lingfield Race Preview
Tuesday 11 November 2025 • 6 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 3f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds (guide): 4.50
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Irish point winner on soft ground; stamina and profile are strong for this test. High purchase price and Skelton yard boost confidence, but opening odds are short relative to true chance, so rated Below Fair.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 3f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds (guide): 4.29
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Proven in the ground and at the level; sound hurdling profile from a top yard. Market broadly reflects his chance; rated Fair.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: David Pipe
- Trip: 2m 3f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds (guide): 9.00
- Overround: 107.6%
Analysis
Point and rules form suggest a strong stayer suited by this trip and ground. Unexposed with NP > IP; profile marks him as an Above Fair each-way alternative.
Details
- J: Caoilin Quinn
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m 7f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds (guide): 4.50
- Overround: 111.5%
Analysis
Consistent, proven stayer with strong chase SecEff; Above Fair edge for a solid profile favourite.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m 7f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 15%
- Odds (guide): 6.00
- Overround: 111.5%
Analysis
Handicap/chase debut with a notable jockey booking; potential improver. Fairly priced given uncertainties.
Details
- J: Ned Fox
- T: Clive Boultbee-Brooks
- Trip: 2m 7f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (guide): 9.00
- Overround: 111.5%
Analysis
C&D experience and solid completion record; dependable place candidate at Fair value.
Details
- J: Benjamin Macey
- T: Samuel Drinkwater
- Trip: 2m 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds (guide): 5.50
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Last year’s C&D winner of this race; ideal conditions and SecEff profile. Clear NP > IP edge makes him an Above Fair value selection.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (guide): 4.00
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Strong soft-ground form and stamina; sets the standard. Fully found in market; rated Fair.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 2m 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (guide): 6.00
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Chepstow run showed promise; unproven at trip but interesting. Marginally Below NP; monitored as Fair risk-reward.
Details
- J: Callum Pritchard
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds (guide): 6.00
- Overround: 112.9%
Analysis
Defending winner; minimal rise; ideal C&D and ground. NP > IP makes him an Above Fair each-way anchor.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: David Pipe
- Trip: 2m 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds (guide): 4.50
- Overround: 112.9%
Analysis
Stays well and finds off the bridle; Above Fair with stamina angle. Ground a minor query but profile strong.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 2m 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds (guide): 10.00
- Overround: 112.9%
Analysis
Well-handicapped on older efforts and handles conditions; NP < IP so rated Below Fair but capable of outrunning price.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m 4f
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds (guide): 5.00
- Overround: 111.4%
Analysis
Chase debut profile ticks all boxes: scope, ground, yard form. With NP > IP he marks an Above Fair, progressive option.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m 4f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds (guide): 6.00
- Overround: 111.4%
Analysis
Potential to step forward over fences; market about right.
Details
- J: Lorcan Williams
- T: Jeremy Scott
- Trip: 2m 4f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds (guide): 7.00
- Overround: 111.4%
Analysis
Only one with chase experience; dependable jumper and logical place prospect at Fair value.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 15%
- Odds (guide): 4.50
- Overround: 110.9%
Analysis
Chepstow run marks strong recent form; well treated and open to further progress. Clear Above Fair standout in this mares’ handicap.
Details
- J: Daniel Sansom
- T: Seamus Mullins
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds (guide): 5.00
- Overround: 110.9%
Analysis
Thriving with two recent wins; if handling easier ground, remains a major Above Fair player.
Details
- J: Robbie David
- T: Daisy Hitchins
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds (guide): 6.00
- Overround: 110.9%
Analysis
Last-time-out winner with suitable conditions; Fairly priced main danger.
Analysis
Proven C&D winner of this very race, returning under near-identical conditions. Strong SecEff profile, reliable jumper, and a clear NP > IP advantage within a fair book. This aligns as the most compelling “run-that-wins” scenario on the Lingfield card.
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds.
Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%, removing the bookmaker’s margin.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be higher than the Implied Probability.