Bet Smart & Win — Lingfield 18/11/25

Bet Smart & Win — Lingfield Race Preview

Tuesday 18 November 2025 • 6 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race

Methodology & Performance

How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge

The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.

At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%

These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.

How We Pick Winners

Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.


How To Read the Format

We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.

The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.

Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.

When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.

Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) — 1:15
Lingfield • 6 runners • Good to Soft • 2m 3f 110y
R1 Cl4 108%
#4 Giantsgrave
Form: 2/1-5
Harry Skelton AF
NP
45%
IP
52%
Details
  • J: Harry Skelton
  • T: Dan Skelton
  • Trip: 2m 3f 110y
  • Trainer RTF%: 62%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 108%
Analysis

Stable confidence is the key factor; bumper winner with a trainer bulletin talking him up as a prospect. SecEff-J is unproven over hurdles but bumper form on soft ground signals suitability for the conditions. Jumping debut requires caution, but overall profile makes him the clear value call.

#1 Cinquenta
Form: 333-5w1
Gavin Sheehan F
NP
21%
IP
19%
Details
  • J: Gavin Sheehan
  • T: Jamie Snowden
  • Trip: 2m 3f 110y
  • Trainer RTF%: 68%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 108%
Analysis

Showed promise on soft ground in Irish points and should appreciate this longer trip around a testing hurdles track. Has valuable experience in a small-field maiden and is likely to be prominent in a race without a strong pace. Makes fewer mistakes than some rivals and rates a solid place player.

#3 Gatineau Park
Form: 5/31-55
Tom Bellamy F
NP
21%
IP
19%
Details
  • J: Tom Bellamy
  • T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
  • Trip: 2m 3f 110y
  • Trainer RTF%: 46%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 108%
Analysis

Form ties in with Cinquenta and he is proven at the trip with soft-ground experience. A consistent type who often finds one or two too strong, but should be pressing the leaders throughout. Reliable jumper and a fair value runner for exotics.

Jodie Standing’s Point-To-Point Novices’ Handicap Chase — 1:45
Lingfield • 5 runners • Good • 2m 4f
R2 Cl5 107%
#1 Jorah
Form: 42505
Harry Skelton AF
NP
29%
IP
26%
Details
  • J: Harry Skelton
  • T: Dan Skelton
  • Trip: 2m 4f
  • Trainer RTF%: 62%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 107%
Analysis

Pedigree points to significant improvement for fences and current handicap mark looks lenient. SecEff-J over hurdles was only moderate, but the switch to fences and better ground could unlock major progress. First-time over fences is a risk, yet trainer intent and NP>IP edge make him a strong value anchor.

#4 Getaway King
Form: P04P-17t
Tom Broughton BF
NP
43%
IP
40%
Details
  • J: Tom Broughton
  • T: Fergal O’Brien
  • Trip: 2m 4f
  • Trainer RTF%: 47%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 107%
Analysis

Lightly raced chaser who gets weight and already has chase experience. Has shown ability on good ground and should be suited by a tactical, small-field setup. The favourite on profile but offers little in the way of value at current prices.

#3 Diamond Days
Form: 572P-35
Freddie Gingell F
NP
27%
IP
25%
Details
  • J: Freddie Gingell
  • T: Joe Tizzard
  • Trip: 2m 4f
  • Trainer RTF%: 71%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 107%
Analysis

Consistent in defeat over hurdles and a mark of 91 looks fair starting out over fences. Has run well on good ground and should be suited by the track. Unproven in this discipline, but the yard’s record with novice chasers makes him a credible danger.

Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race) — 2:15
Lingfield • 9 runners • Good to Soft • 2m
R3 Cl4 109%
#9 Coolkatie
Form: 3-5
Harry Skelton BF
NP
36%
IP
40%
Details
  • J: Harry Skelton
  • T: Dan Skelton
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 62%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 109%
Analysis

Bumper form is strong and she is bred to handle softish ground, making her the one to beat on profile. SecEff-J from bumpers is solid and she should be suited by a likely strong pace in this larger field. Hurdles debut is a positive angle for the yard but the model flags negative value at current odds.

#3 Kosac d’Oudairies
Form: 1/531-5h
Gavin Sheehan F
NP
25%
IP
27%
Details
  • J: Gavin Sheehan
  • T: Jamie Snowden
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 68%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 109%
Analysis

Winning Irish point-to-pointer who has already scored over hurdles and is proven in stamina tests. Holds a notable experience edge over several key rivals and will relish underfoot conditions. Reliable jumper and a solid each-way option, though priced about right on current markets.

#8 Zamek
Form: 3-5
Sean Bowen F
NP
25%
IP
25%
Details
  • J: Sean Bowen
  • T: Olly Murphy
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 52%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 109%
Analysis

Showed promise in a decent bumper and now joins a yard in strong form. Soft-ground suitability is an unknown but pedigree suggests it should be within range. Another with a hurdles debut here, backed up by a top-20 jockey booking, and he looks a fair alternative to the front pair.

At The Races Supports SGWeek25 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) — 2:45
Lingfield • 11 runners • Good • 2m 6f 10y
R4 Cl4 113%
#9 Star Of Diamonds
Form: 1/454-6
Harry Cobden F
NP
20%
IP
20%
Details
  • J: Harry Cobden
  • T: Emma Lavelle
  • Trip: 2m 6f 10y
  • Trainer RTF%: 42%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 113%
Analysis

Winning Irish pointer making both chase and handicap debut from what looks a workable mark of 108. Unproven on this track but has form on soft ground and the move up in trip looks a major plus. First-time over fences is a clear unknown yet the upside is significant in a race lacking depth.

#7 Followcato
Form: 5373-U6
Ben Jones AF
NP
25%
IP
22%
Details
  • J: Ben Jones
  • T: Ben Pauling
  • Trip: 2m 6f 10y
  • Trainer RTF%: 54%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 113%
Analysis

Consistent handicapper who stays well and acts on good ground, dropping slightly in class here. Often runs his race and should be suited by a properly run stamina test around this galloping track. A recent fall is a minor concern but he is generally sound and offers a modest NP>IP edge.

#11 Realisation
Form: 2853-47w2t
Richie McLernon F
NP
13%
IP
13%
Details
  • J: Richie McLernon
  • T: Charlie Longsdon
  • Trip: 2m 6f 10y
  • Trainer RTF%: 45%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 113%
Analysis

Course-and-distance winner who now finds himself 2lb below his last winning mark. Proven in these conditions and likely to be finishing off strongly from off the pace. Reliable jumper and a live each-way player in a competitive heat — each-way advised where four places are on offer at 1/5 odds.

Download The At The Races App Handicap Hurdle — 3:15
Lingfield • 6 runners • Good to Soft • 2m 3f 110y
R5 Cl3 108%
#4 Ski Lodge
Form: 21/71-6
Tom Bellamy F
NP
29%
IP
31%
Details
  • J: Tom Bellamy
  • T: Alan King
  • Trip: 2m 3f 110y
  • Trainer RTF%: 58%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 108%
Analysis

Lightly raced and open to further progress, with form on soft ground a key plus. Strong SecEff-J figures from last season and proven effectiveness fresh suggest he can step forward again. Track configuration looks ideal, though the current odds leave him rated only fair on value.

#5 Scorpio Rising
Form: 33-15
Sean Bowen BF
NP
43%
IP
40%
Details
  • J: Sean Bowen
  • T: Olly Murphy
  • Trip: 2m 3f 110y
  • Trainer RTF%: 52%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 108%
Analysis

Unbeaten in two earlier hurdle starts and now makes a fascinating handicap debut. The softer ground is an unknown and the model expects this to be a stiffer test than he has faced so far. Jockey and yard are big positives but the price looks on the short side given those uncertainties.

#1 Whatsupwithyou
Form: 3162-P11tb
Elliott England F
NP
11%
IP
11%
Details
  • J: Elliott England
  • T: Ben Pauling
  • Trip: 2m 3f 110y
  • Trainer RTF%: 54%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 108%
Analysis

Arrives in excellent heart after two recent wins and clearly thriving, albeit with a penalty to shoulder. Will relish a stamina test at this trip and is likely to be on the sharp end of the pace. Recent jumping has been foot-perfect and he may be slightly underestimated if the market focuses solely on classier rivals.

Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 Handicap Chase — 3:50
Lingfield • 10 runners • Good • 2m
R6 Cl5 111%
#8 Mutual Respect
Form: 2424-39w2tp
Gavin Sheehan F
NP
20%
IP
20%
Details
  • J: Gavin Sheehan
  • T: Billy Aprahamian
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: N/A
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 111%
Analysis

Consistent handicap chaser who now drops to a winnable mark and clearly acts on good ground. Should be suited by a sharp 2m test and the likelihood of a solid pace that he can sit just behind. Rarely makes serious errors and is the type to be involved late if the race falls apart.

#3 Jorebel
Form: 3-11126
Freddie Gordon F
NP
27%
IP
27%
Details
  • J: Freddie Gordon
  • T: Chris Gordon
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 31%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 111%
Analysis

Arrives from a much stronger race last time and drops in class here. Form on good ground is solid and the return to 2m is a positive move given his cruising speed. Market position is justified; model has him as a key contender but not a standout on value.

#4 Irish Chorus
Form: 3U6F4-6
Tom Bellamy F
NP
17%
IP
17%
Details
  • J: Tom Bellamy
  • T: Alan King
  • Trip: 2m
  • Trainer RTF%: 58%
  • Odds: (not provided)
  • Overround: 111%
Analysis

Temptingly handicapped and better suited returning to a right-handed track where his record reads well. Needs to sharpen up his jumping but has form figures of 113 at this course, underlining his track affinity. Conditions are in his favour and he is a fair-priced player to hit the frame.

Nap of the Meeting — Lingfield
Summary
NAP Cl5 107%
#1 Jorah (Form: 42505)
Harry Skelton NAP AF
Analysis

Strong chasing pedigree and a potentially lenient handicap mark combine with a positive NP>IP edge. The Skelton team are traditionally potent with this type of switcher and his hurdling platform suggests a better chaser in the making. On good ground over 2m4f in a small field, the race scenario plays perfectly to his strengths — this is the “run-that-wins” profile on the card.

Value Guide: AF = Above Fair, F = Fair, BF = Below Fair.

Please Login to Comment.