How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Lingfield (AW) 26/08/25
#3 Senor Cortez (Form: 09921)
Progressive profile with strong sectionals and a clear value edge (NP exceeds IP); ideal amateur handicap setup over this stamina trip.
4:10 Lingfield – Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap (Class 5) (1m7f169y, 8 runners)
#3 Senor Cortez (Form: 09921)
Unexposed and improving; latest win backed by efficient late splits and a favourable book after normalization.
#1 Moel Arthur (Form: 493723)
Solid recent consistency but marginally overbet on IP; strong place credentials if pace holds steady.
#6 Throne Hall (Form: 115285)
Stamina angle and workable mark suggest late gains; pricing leaves a small value buffer.
Analysis
Senor Cortez the most progressive with NP>IP, Moel Arthur reliable but fairly priced, and Throne Hall a value-driven placer.
4:40 Lingfield – Download The At The Races App EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Div I) (Class 4) (7f1y, 10 runners)
#5 Laser Luck (Form: 5)
Debut run full of promise with late efficiency; model expects improvement to reverse prior head-to-head.
#4 Boss Lady (Form: 22)
Consistent and forward-going; narrow value deficit but sets a solid form yardstick.
#2 Angels’ Share (Form: 772)
Steady progress with racing and sectionals hint at further step forward; fair each-way type.
Analysis
Laser Luck preferred on upside and NP>IP, Boss Lady the benchmark, and Angels’ Share the value frame player.
5:10 Lingfield – Download The At The Races App EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Div II) (Class 4) (7f1y, 8 runners)
#3 Galileo Charm (Form: 15)
Best piece of recent maiden form and rates to improve at 7f around here; clear win credentials on normalized book.
#8 Sovereign Bright (Form: 6237)
Consistent levels; market generally accurate but maintains strong chance to fill the exacta.
#5 Lyra Lea (Form: 232)
Reliable placer with scope to get involved again; small positive value gap.
Analysis
Galileo Charm holds the form edge, Sovereign Bright main danger, and Lyra Lea keeps hitting the frame.
5:40 Lingfield – Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Classified Stakes (Class 6) (1m4f, 12 runners)
#5 Pending Appeal (Form: 266854)
Shaping as if this trip unlocks more; normalization places her at the top of a compressed field.
#12 Silk And Steel (Form: 80-971)
Comes here off a win with momentum; still offers a mild value premium against the implieds.
#11 Kilima (Form: 009812)
3yo with recent upturn; profile suggests continued progress at this trip.
Analysis
Pending Appeal gets a favourable setup, Silk And Steel is a strong threat, and Kilima remains on the upgrade.
6:10 Lingfield – Atmosclear Handicap (Div I) (Class 6) (1m1y, 11 runners)
#6 Harryella (Form: 91-246)
Rock-solid profile with scope; surface and trip align, leaving a slim but real value edge.
#7 Muy Muy Loco (Form: 524328)
Consistent placer whose sectionals suit the Lingfield bend; genuine win contender.
#9 Keep Talking (Form: 98665)
In-and-out profile but the numbers imply a minor positive over market price for a place.
Analysis
Harryella edges this on upside, Muy Muy Loco stays very interested late, and Keep Talking offers small each-way value.
6:40 Lingfield – Atmosclear Handicap (Div II) (Class 6) (1m1y, 10 runners)
#1 Bretton Wood (Form: 9-3584)
Shaped well over 1m and should hold 1m1y; top of the model stack with small positive edge.
#10 Pretty Spirited (Form: -24541)
Comes in off a win with an efficient run profile; still fractionally underbet on the normalized book.
#4 Seconds Count (Form: 2563)
Yard form and profile signal improvement; neatly priced for a frame finish with upside risk.
Analysis
Bretton Wood shades it on balance, Pretty Spirited the danger, and Seconds Count sits well for places.
7:10 Lingfield – attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Class 5) (7f1y, 9 runners)
#9 Saytarr (Form: 327-32)
Profile suits track and trip; normalization points to a narrow but real value edge versus market.
#6 Flag Carrier (Form: 064122)
Model likes the consistency and run style; sits just under fair vs current quotes.
#5 Bint Havana Gold (Form: 123550)
Drop in the weights plus suitable setup; minor positive over IP supports inclusion.
Analysis
Saytarr narrowly ahead on value metrics, Flag Carrier persistent danger, and Bint Havana Gold a live placer.
7:40 Lingfield – Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Class 6) (6f1y, 10 runners)
#7 Phoenix Moon (Form: -35945)
C&D affinity and efficient sprint profile; top of model with NP>IP confirming value.
#9 Mammy (Form: 525763)
Reliable efforts in similar grade; normalized pricing retains a modest positive.
#6 Mary Of Modena (Form: 68-661)
Recent win boosts confidence; retains enough value to warrant inclusion for minor money.
Analysis
Phoenix Moon is a C&D specialist with a value tick, Mammy consistent threat, and Mary Of Modena holds place appeal.
Notes
Top Jockey = Included in our curated list of leading riders.
Overround colour guide: 100%–115% 116%–117% 118%+ ≤99%
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair