Bet Smart & Win — Ludlow Race Preview
Thursday 06 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m 5f 55y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 1.67
- Overround: 105.9%
Solid on good ground; reliable jumper; small-field edge reduced.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m 5f 55y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: 5.00
- Overround: 105.9%
Stays well; prominent racer; NP>IP gives each-way appeal.
Details
- J: Lilly Pinchin
- T: Charlie Longsdon
- Trip: 2m 5f 55y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: 5.00
- Overround: 105.9%
Trip asks a question; needs hurdling polish; market a shade strong.
Details
- J: Miss Eleanor Williams
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 2m 5f 55y
- Trainer RTF%: 23%
- Odds: 2.62
- Overround: 107.8%
C&D winner; fit and fairly treated; solid amateur claim.
Details
- J: Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m 5f 55y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: 3.50
- Overround: 107.8%
Consistent; late kick plays if pace burns.
Details
- J: Miss Victoria Malzard
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 2m 5f 55y
- Trainer RTF%: 77%
- Odds: 4.50
- Overround: 107.8%
Stamina to prove; mark workable; risky but priced.
Details
- J: Callum Pritchard
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 1m 7f 169y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: 1.45
- Overround: 106.5%
French schooling edge; should control tempo; short but strong.
Details
- J: Freddie Gingell
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 1m 7f 169y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: 3.00
- Overround: 106.5%
Progressing; yard flying; each-way with upside if fav errs.
Details
- J: James Davies
- T: Chris Down
- Trip: 1m 7f 169y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 34.48
- Overround: 106.5%
Big leap needed; only a price play for minors.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Henry Daly
- Trip: 3m 1f 125y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: 2.75
- Overround: 107.6%
Bold-jumping stayer; happiest dictating; reliable profile.
Details
- J: Shane Fenelon
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 3m 1f 125y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: 2.10
- Overround: 107.6%
Well-handicapped if jumping holds; risky favourite profile.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Sam Allwood
- Trip: 3m 1f 125y
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: 7.52
- Overround: 107.6%
Track winner; minor place chance if kept in rhythm.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m 5f 55y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: 2.62
- Overround: 108.2%
Classy bumper form; hurdles debut; stable excels with mares.
Details
- J: Shane Fenelon
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 2m 5f 55y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: 3.25
- Overround: 108.2%
Reliable; stays well; safest each-way alternative.
Details
- J: Charlie Hammond
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 2m 5f 55y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: 5.00
- Overround: 108.2%
Consistent; step up may unlock more; danger.
Details
- J: Conor Ring
- T: Evan Williams
- Trip: 1m 7f 212y
- Trainer RTF%: 23%
- Odds: 3.50
- Overround: 108.8%
Improving fence profile; drop in trip a plus.
Details
- J: Richard Patrick
- T: John O’Shea
- Trip: 1m 7f 212y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 3.75
- Overround: 108.8%
Front-running angle; chance if getting breathers.
Details
- J: Callum Pritchard
- T: Sheila Lewis
- Trip: 1m 7f 212y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: 4.00
- Overround: 108.8%
Experience counts; needs tidy round to feature.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m 7f 169y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 2.62
- Overround: 107.7%
Penalty fair; strongest form; the one to beat.
Details
- J: Charlie Todd
- T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Trip: 1m 7f 169y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: 4.00
- Overround: 107.7%
Honest sort; forecast player behind fav.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 1m 7f 169y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: 4.50
- Overround: 107.7%
Well-bred; market check; could outrun price on debut.
Analysis
Proven stayer on good ground; happiest dictating; reliable fencing. Model’s “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest here.