Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Tuesday 21 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Ben Jones
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m 125y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Second on hurdling debut at Worcester; must prove effectiveness on softer ground but profiles as a solid standard-setter for the race.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m 125y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Soft-ground form and point-to-point stamina bring him firmly into play; shapes as a strong finisher stepping into hurdles.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 125y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 108.7%
Analysis
Soft-ground winner dropping into a more realistic level; solid, but current odds slightly overstate his true chance.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m 4f 139y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 108.3%
Analysis
Winning point-to-pointer with stamina assured; rates a strong hurdling debut candidate if jumping holds up.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m 4f 139y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 108.3%
Analysis
Hurdling experience and soft-ground form are key assets; a solid benchmark in an otherwise unexposed field.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 4f 139y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 108.3%
Analysis
Heavy-ground bumper winner; conditions and trip look ideal for a bold first effort over hurdles.
Details
- J: Joe Anderson
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m 7f 191y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
Impressive heavy-ground win last time with strong late sectionals; still unexposed over fences and open to further improvement.
Details
- J: Charlie Hammond
- T: Nick Kent
- Trip: 2m 7f 191y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
Chase debutant whose form suggests he could be better over fences; potentially well treated if adapting smoothly.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Mickey Bowen
- Trip: 2m 7f 191y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 112.1%
Analysis
Hardy stayer with solid chase experience; shapes as an each-way player against the more progressive profiles.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m 5f 89y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 5
- Overround: 108.6%
Analysis
Recent C&D winner who clearly relishes this configuration; still looks fairly treated and rates the one to beat.
Details
- J: Harry Bannister
- T: Julian Smith
- Trip: 2m 5f 89y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: (not available)
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 5
- Overround: 108.6%
Analysis
In fine form and another proven over C&D; weights rise but still respected in a winnable contest.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
- Trip: 2m 5f 89y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 5
- Overround: 108.6%
Analysis
Soft-ground and C&D credentials are in place, but the market marginally overestimates his winning chance at current prices.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 2m 4f 139y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 5
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Novice form suggests scope for better now handicapping; trip and ground look ideal and the mark may underestimate him.
Details
- J: Jack Hogan
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 4f 139y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 5
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Slipping mark brings him into focus; each-way angle with stamina and soft-ground capability in his favour.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 4f 139y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 5
- Overround: 108.8%
Analysis
Course-and-distance winner with a consistent profile; competitive, but market slightly too short relative to the model.
Details
- J: Jack Hogan
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 7f 16y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 5
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Dual soft/heavy winner with recent Flat form; back over hurdles from a handy mark and possesses a notable NP > IP edge.
Details
- J: Isabelle Ryder
- T: Barry Brennan
- Trip: 2m 7f 16y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 5
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
C&D winner now below his last winning mark; a reliable stayer who makes each-way appeal behind a strong favourite.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Brian Ellison
- Trip: 2m 7f 16y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 5
- Overround: 109.8%
Analysis
Arrives in form after a soft-ground win; up 7lb but still has a solid chance if reproducing that effort.
Details
- J: Tom Midgley
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 2m 2f 140y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Course specialist whose figures at Market Rasen are rock solid; dependable and well suited to conditions.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 2f 140y
- Going: Good To Soft (unknown but plausible)
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Unexposed mare who scored on hurdles debut; open to significant progress if handling the softer ground.
Details
- J: Tom Broughton
- T: Max Comley
- Trip: 2m 2f 140y
- Going: Good To Soft
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (guide not provided)
- Class: 4
- Overround: 109.5%
Analysis
Latest soft-ground win marks her as a big player if able to cope with a higher mark in a deeper mares’ contest.
Analysis
Dual soft/heavy winner returning to hurdles from a workable mark, with strong sectionals in the book and a clear NP > IP edge in a fair Overround. Stamina, ground, and trainer form all align to make her the standout bet on the card.