Bet Smart & Win — Musselburgh Race Preview
Wednesday 05 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Jim Goldie
- Trip: 5f 1y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
C&D winner in strong form; model top pick and value.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: Ben Haslam
- Trip: 5f 1y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
First time in Class 6; potentially well-treated; main danger.
Details
- J: Joe Fanning
- T: Stella Barclay
- Trip: 5f 1y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Well-handicapped on best; makes the shortlist at fair value.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 7f 15y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear form pick and likely market leader; strong chance to score.
Details
- J: Greg Fairley
- T: Ivan Furtado
- Trip: 7f 15y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Experienced; solid place claims on the numbers.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: John & Sean Quinn
- Trip: 7f 15y
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Honest profile; model rates chance as fair at likely odds.
Details
- J: Sean Kirrane
- T: Tim Vaughan
- Trip: 1m 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Recent winner; profile says repeat is very plausible at the weights.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Jim Goldie
- Trip: 1m 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Back in grade; dangerous if recapturing mid-season levels.
Details
- J: Oisin McSweeney
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 1m 2y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent; solid place candidate if pace collapses.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: John S O’Donoghue
- Trip: 1m 4f 104y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Handicap debut and up in trip; scope for a chunk of improvement.
Details
- J: Archie Young
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 1m 4f 104y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Likely favourite; unexposed stayer; obvious major player.
Details
- J: Andrew Mullen
- T: Iain Jardine
- Trip: 1m 4f 104y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Reliable yardstick; should be in the mix if pace honest.
Details
- J: Andrew Mullen
- T: Linda Perratt
- Trip: 7f 15y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
C&D specialist; handicapped to strike; value angle.
Details
- J: Zak Wheatley
- T: Declan Carroll
- Trip: 7f 15y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
AW form strong; big chance if translating to turf today.
Details
- J: Archie Young
- T: Iain Jardine
- Trip: 7f 15y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
In-form yard; consistent; another solid place angle.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: Katie Scott
- Trip: 7f 15y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
10lb below last winning mark; course record positive; fair value.
Details
- J: Sean Kirrane
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 7f 15y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Arrives in form; respected with pace to aim at.
Details
- J: Oisin McSweeney
- T: Geoffrey Harker
- Trip: 7f 15y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Another in-form runner; should contend for the frame.
Details
- J: Andrew Elliott
- T: Simon West
- Trip: 1m 7f 217y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Progressive and ready to strike; model’s top-rated.
Details
- J: Amie Waugh
- T: Jim Goldie
- Trip: 1m 7f 217y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Market leader and clear danger; strong staying claims.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Ben Haslam
- Trip: 1m 7f 217y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
C&D winner; holds a solid place chance on figures.
Analysis
Progressive profile, ideal trip, trainer currently 100% RTF — the model’s strongest edge today. Back with confidence.
Details
- J: Andrew Elliott
- T: Simon West
- Race: Join Racing TV Now Handicap — 16:03
- Trip: 1m 7f 217y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%