Bet Smart & Win
Musselburgh — Sun 14/09/25
Races: 7 (1–7)
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
How To Pick Winners
We only place bets when a race meets the following criteria:
- Overround: Between 100–115% (Green)
- Runners: Between 8–12
- Value: Above Fair (Green)
- Class: 5, 4, 3
- Jockey: Top 20 (strict whitelist)
- NP: 27% or Above
- IP: Below the NP (Normalised Probability)
- Best days to bet: Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat (statistically strongest)
Musselburgh 14/09/25 — NAP
NAP#3 Sea Master (Form: 332124)
J: Joanna Mason
NP: 34%
IP: 29%
Details
Why this is the NAP
- Consistent recent figures with best last-time RPR in field.
- NP comfortably above IP within a tight (108%) book.
- Setup suits a handy stalk-and-pounce — track plays fair at the trip.
12/20 — 60%
1
Dropkicks Split The G Novice Stakes (GBB Race) — 5f 1y
#2 Farandaway (Form: -82330)
J: Oliver Stammers
NP: 51%
IP: 75%
Details
Why we like this
- Clear form pick; small field reduces variance.
- NP>IP signal strong despite short odds bias.
- Should control the race from the gate.
14/20 — 70%
#1 Donald (Form: 41 44)
J: Paul Mulrennan
NP: 28%
IP: 45%
Details
Why we like this
- Reliable yard/jockey axis; pace to sit behind leader.
- Profiles best for a place in a 3-runner shape.
- Fair vs tissue; limited upside.
15/20 — 75%
#3 Komorkis (Form: 35-5)
J: Oisin Orr
NP: 21%
IP: 68%
Details
Why we like this
- Needs to step forward; below fair on current pricing.
- Third spot more likely than win chance.
- Runner style suggests late nibble without landing a blow.
7/20 — 35%
2
Listen To Heart Scotland Nursery Handicap — 1m 2y
#3 Parisian Scholar (Form: 774)
J: Jason Hart
NP: 32%
IP: 24%
Details
Why we like this
- Marked progression; trip looks optimal.
- NP>IP indicates value; nursery experience helps.
- Fails strict qualify (Class 6 and jockey not on whitelist).
14/20 — 70%
#4 Supreme Dancer (Form: 647524)
J: Oisin Orr
NP: 27%
IP: 17%
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent outputs; shape for a strong finish.
- Ticks NP/IP but fails strict (Class 6, non-whitelist jockey).
- Place claims solid in context.
14/20 — 70%
#7 Spirit Star (Form: 704335)
J: Joe Fanning
NP: 20%
IP: 19%
Details
Why we like this
- Honest profile; minor money chance.
- Fails strict (Class 6, value F).
- Edge only if price compensates.
10/20 — 50%
3
Musselburgh Racecourse Premium Annual Membership Handicap — 1m 4f 104y
#3 Sea Master (Form: 332124)
J: Joanna Mason
NP: 34%
IP: 29%
Details
Why we like this
- Top of recent ratings; efficient middle splits.
- Fails strict (Class 6 & runners <8).
- Still our form pick within the race shape.
12/20 — 60%
#4 Rory The Cat (Form: 4-8663)
J: Cian Horgan
NP: 30%
IP: 27%
Details
Why we like this
- Trainer form hot; best late energy if pace holds.
- Fails strict (Class 6; runners <8).
- Solid place credentials.
12/20 — 60%
#1 Lincoln Rockstar (Form: 254556)
J: Jason Hart
NP: 22%
IP: 35%
Details
Why we like this
- Capable; market a touch short on win chance.
- Below fair; better for exotics than win.
- Fails strict on multiple counts.
3/20 — 15%
4
Dropkicks Donkey Handicap — 1m 2y
#5 Balmerino (Form: 57-824)
J: Joe Fanning
NP: 30%
IP: 20%
Details
Why we like this
- Profiles like a ready winner at a mile.
- Fails strict (Class 6; runners <8).
- Plenty of place upside if pace is honest.
12/20 — 60%
#3 Drumcondra (Form: 4-5882)
J: Paul Mulrennan
NP: 28%
IP: 15%
Details
Why we like this
- Reliable; NP/IP positive spread.
- Strict rule fail (Class 6; runners <8).
- Win/place material nonetheless.
14/20 — 70%
#1 Shielas Well (Form: 133433)
J: Oliver Stammers
NP: 25%
IP: 23%
Details
Why we like this
- Current consistency is a plus.
- Fair value; strict fail (Class 6; runners <8).
- Frame chance if pace collapses.
8/20 — 40%
5
Dropkicks Honky Tonk Handicap — 5f 1y
#5 Montezuma (Form: 5-7343)
J: Paul Mulrennan
NP: 30%
IP: 17%
Details
Why we like this
- Trip tweak to 5f suits; strong NP/IP spread.
- Overround 112 (green), runners 10, Class 5 — fully qualifies.
- Whitelist jockey (Mulrennan) — ticks the final box.
20/20 — 100%
#1 I’m Next (Form: 301302)
J: Duran Fentiman
NP: 28%
IP: 24%
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent; fair at current quotes.
- Fails strict (value F and jockey not on whitelist).
- Place angle more than win.
17/20 — 85%
#3 Smooth Silesie (Form: 212114)
J: Sean Kirrane
NP: 27%
IP: 24%
Details
Why we like this
- Hot formline; fair vs IP.
- Fails strict (value F and non-whitelist jockey).
- Credible each-way frame chance.
17/20 — 85%
6
Racing TV Handicap — 1m 2y
#3 Saxonia (Form: 844212)
J: Jason Hart
NP: 31%
IP: 12%
Details
Why we like this
- Strong NP/IP edge; right trip.
- Fails strict (runners 7; jockey not on whitelist).
- Still a leading player on form.
16/20 — 80%
#6 This Years Love (Form: 240811)
J: Joanna Mason
NP: 29%
IP: 18%
Details
Why we like this
- Improving; fair-to-positive value.
- Fails strict (runners 7; jockey not on whitelist).
- Place angle if tempo solid.
16/20 — 80%
#4 Inanna (Form: 332116)
J: Paul Mulrennan
NP: 24%
IP: 23%
Details
Why we like this
- Solid yard; consistent runs.
- Fails strict (value F, runners 7).
- Minor money chance only.
14/20 — 70%
7
100% Racing TV Profits Back To Racing Handicap — 7f 15y
#4 Sanditon (Form: 4-5882)
J: Joe Fanning
NP: 28%
IP: 31%
Details
Why we like this
- Reliable profile; fair around the market.
- Fails strict (Class 6; value F).
- Place more likely than win.
12/20 — 60%
#1 Operation Gimcrack (Form: 4-2924)
J: Andrew Breslin
NP: 27%
IP: 28%
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent; handicapped to be competitive.
- Fails strict (Class 6; value F; jockey not whitelist).
- Exotics appeal more than win.
12/20 — 60%
#5 Monhammer (Form: 069622)
J: Paul Mulrennan
NP: 25%
IP: 19%
Details
Why we like this
- AF tag with NP>IP; strongest of the trio.
- Fails strict due to Class 6 (despite runners 12 and whitelist jockey).
- Live each-way if price holds.
13/20 — 65%