Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (IRE Incentive Race)
Race Distance: 5f205y
Racecourse: Naas
Time of Race: 5:05
First: Simply Astounding
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: – – – (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Salacious
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 6 – 13 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Seamie Heffernan
Trainer: Josh Halley
Trainer RTF% Form: 22%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 13
TS: 70
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Simply Astounding, trained by A P O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, is the standout pick despite being a debutant. The stable’s strong record with juveniles and Moore’s expertise make this filly the one to beat. Salacious has shown promise in her runs and could capitalize if the favorite underperforms.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens further, Salacious’s experience could prove advantageous.
Race Name: Enjoy Racing TV With A FREE Trial Now Handicap
Race Distance: 5f205y
Racecourse: Naas
Time of Race: 5:40
First: Brigid’s Cloak
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: 4-4231 (Strong recent form)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Rory Mulligan
Trainer: J P Murtagh
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 73
TS: 91
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Unique Journey
Age: 3
Weight: 9-6
Form: 8032-3 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: Daniel James Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 74
TS: 83
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Brigid’s Cloak has been in excellent form, winning last time out, and her speed figures (TS 91) make her the top pick. Unique Journey is consistent and could challenge if the favorite falters.
Scenario Analysis: A drier track would favor Brigid’s Cloak, while softer conditions might bring Unique Journey into contention.
Race Name: Family Fun Day May 18th Handicap
Race Distance: 5f205y
Racecourse: Naas
Time of Race: 6:10
First: Collective Power
Age: 7
Weight: 9-2
Form: 276-21 (Improving form)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Sorcha Woods
Trainer: Edward Lynam
Trainer RTF% Form: 100%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 99
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Little Queenie
Age: 6
Weight: 10-0
Form: 13149- (Experienced but inconsistent)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Robert Whearty
Trainer: Paul W Flynn
Trainer RTF% Form: 25%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 98
TS: 104
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Collective Power’s recent win and high TS (99) make him the value pick. Little Queenie has the class but needs to bounce back.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms, Little Queenie’s stamina could come into play.
Race Name: Anglesey Lodge Equine Hospital Woodlands Stakes (Listed)
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Naas
Time of Race: 6:40
First: My Mate Alfie
Age: 4
Weight: 9-12
Form: 63111- (Dominant recent form)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: G M Lyons
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 112
TS: 115
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Big Gossey
Age: 8
Weight: 9-12
Form: -32231 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: W J Lee
Trainer: Charles O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: –
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 106
TS: 113
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: My Mate Alfie is the class act here with a perfect recent record. Big Gossey is a reliable place contender.
Scenario Analysis: Softening ground would suit Big Gossey’s stamina.
Race Name: Race & Stay Fillies Maiden (3yo)
Race Distance: 1m2f84y
Racecourse: Naas
Time of Race: 7:10
First: Subsonic
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 2- (Promising debut)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Ben Coen
Trainer: J P Murtagh
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 94
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Thilos
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 3- (Solid debut)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 45%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 80
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Subsonic showed promise on debut with a TS of 94 and is expected to improve significantly here. Thilos also ran well first time out and could challenge if the favorite underperforms.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens further, Thilos’ stamina may come into play.
Race Name: Naas Racecourse Business Club Blackwater Handicap (3yo)
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Naas
Time of Race: 7:40
First: Mississippi River
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 322-31 (Strong recent form)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 85
TS: 94
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Scott Key
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13 (7ex)
Form: 008-31 (Improving)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Andrew Slattery
Trainer: Andrew Slattery
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: 99
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Mississippi River is the class act here with a strong recent win and high TS (94). Scott Key is improving rapidly and could be a danger if the favorite doesn’t handle the conditions.
Scenario Analysis: A faster pace would suit Scott Key’s closing style.
Race Name: Best Of Luck To Our Neighbours Punchestown Ahead Of The 2025 Festival Handicap (3yo+ 0-60)
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Naas
Time of Race: 8:10
First: Are You In Or Out
Age: 4
Weight: 9-11
Form: 5029-1 (Won last start)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Chris Hayes
Trainer: Paul Stafford
Trainer RTF% Form: –
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 55
TS: 63
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Dynamite Defense
Age: 4
Weight: 9-8
Form: 14-663 (Consistent)
Going: Yielding To Soft
Jockey: Dylan O’Connor
Trainer: Denis Gerard Hogan
Trainer RTF% Form: 53%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 52
TS: 62
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Are You In Or Out comes off a win and looks well-handicapped here. Dynamite Defense is consistent and should be in the mix again.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground dries out, Dynamite Defense’s speed could be more effective.
Out of my analysis for Naas on the 28th of April 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR (Official Rating), TS (Top Speed), and RTF’s (Ran To Form):
Horse: My Mate Alfie
Age: 4
Weight: 9-12
Form: 63111- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 112
TS: 115
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: My Mate Alfie has shown dominant recent form and is expected to maintain his superiority in this Listed race. His high OR and TS make him the standout performer.
Race Conditions: The yielding to soft ground suits his running style, and his consistency under similar conditions adds to his value.
In summary, My Mate Alfie presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between high winning potential and elite performance metrics.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Naas – 28th April 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Irish Stallion Farm EBF Fillies Maiden (17:05)
- Simply Astounding (85%)
- Sunday River (70%) [Flagged: <80%]
Enjoy Racing TV FREE Trial Now Handicap (17:40)
- Miracle Beauty (82%)
- Dmaniac (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Family Fun Day May 18th Handicap (18:10)
- Little Queenie (88%)
- Moltophino (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Anglesey Lodge Equine Hospital Woodlands Stakes (18:40)
- My Mate Alfie (90%)
- Two Stars (80%)
Race & Stay Fillies Maiden (19:10)
- Subsonic (80%)
- Thilos (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Naas Racecourse Business Club Blackwater Handicap (19:40)
- Tribal Nation (85%)
- Wizard Of Odds (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Best Of Luck To Our Neighbours Punchestown Ahead Of The 2025 Festival Handicap (20:10)
- Agia (83%)
- Mister Adam (77%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Simply Astounding (17:05, Naas, 85%)
- Miracle Beauty (17:40, Naas, 82%)
- Little Queenie (18:10, Naas, 88%)
- My Mate Alfie (18:40, Naas, 90%)
Note: All selections meet the ≥80% confidence threshold.
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Simply Astounding (17:05, Naas)
- Miracle Beauty (17:40, Naas)
- Little Queenie (18:10, Naas)
- My Mate Alfie (18:40, Naas)
Doubles
- Simply Astounding + Miracle Beauty
- Simply Astounding + Little Queenie
- Simply Astounding + My Mate Alfie
- Miracle Beauty + Little Queenie
- Miracle Beauty + My Mate Alfie
- Little Queenie + My Mate Alfie
Trebles
- Simply Astounding + Miracle Beauty + Little Queenie
- Simply Astounding + Miracle Beauty + My Mate Alfie
- Simply Astounding + Little Queenie + My Mate Alfie
- Miracle Beauty + Little Queenie + My Mate Alfie
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Simply Astounding + Miracle Beauty + Little Queenie + My Mate Alfie
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Miracle Beauty (82%) –
- Highest Probability: My Mate Alfie (90%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Tribal Nation (85%) –
