• J: Jack Kennedy
• T: Gordon Elliott
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 60%
• Model Odds (dec): 4.6
• Overround: 111%

Proven on deep ground with a solid third on soft last time. Elliott/Kennedy in a heavy-ground maiden is a powerful combination and the model marks him as strong Above Fair value with NP comfortably above IP.

• J: Danny Gilligan
• T: Gordon Elliott
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 60%
• Model Odds (dec): 3.5
• Overround: 111%

Bumper winner on soft and clearly has the class, but this is his first start over hurdles. The NP edge over IP is only marginal, so he rates a Fair but obvious contender.

• J: Cian Quirke
• T: John F O’Neill
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: N/A
• Model Odds (dec): 27.8
• Overround: 111%

Shaped well when third on hurdling debut on soft and looks an interesting outsider with the right profile for conditions. With big model odds and an each-way angle, he registers as Above Fair value at a price.

• J: Paul Townend
• T: W P Mullins
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 45%
• Model Odds (dec): 3.2
• Overround: 114%

Brings high-level bumper form that stands out against largely unexposed rivals. Heavy is a small question, but pedigree suggests she will cope and the Mullins–Townend axis makes her the one they all have to beat.

• J: Danny Gilligan
• T: Ross O’Sullivan
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 48%
• Model Odds (dec): 3.9
• Overround: 114%

Strong bumper form including winning on soft/heavy and already has hurdling experience. The model finds a clear NP over IP edge, marking her an Above Fair alternative to the Mullins favourite.

• J: Jack Kennedy
• T: Gordon Elliott
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 60%
• Model Odds (dec): 9.0
• Overround: 114%

Has winning soft-ground form and drops slightly in grade, but the model has IP a shade higher than NP which nudges him into Below Fair territory at current prices.

• J: Conor Stone-Walsh
• T: Ian Patrick Donoghue
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 33%
• Model Odds (dec): 7.0
• Overround: 116%

Arrives off a heavy-ground win and looks to be thriving. The rise in the weights is offset by conditions and a strong recent SecEff-J figure, leaving him a solid Fair proposition.

• J: Eoin Staples
• T: Gavin Cromwell
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 29%
• Model Odds (dec): 5.5
• Overround: 116%

Consistent in similar handicaps and already proven on testing ground. Model numbers have NP and IP closely aligned, suggesting current prices are about Fair.

• J: John Shinnick
• T: Donal Kinsella
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 33%
• Model Odds (dec): 17.0
• Overround: 116%

Well-treated now below his last winning mark and with form on soft/heavy in the book. Model flags a meaningful NP over IP edge, making him a strong each-way angle in a big field.

• J: Darragh O’Keeffe
• T: Henry De Bromhead
• Trip: 2m4f
• Trainer RTF%: 48%
• Model Odds (dec): 4.5
• Overround: 109%

Heavy-ground winner over hurdles at Limerick and brings rock-solid stamina for this test. De Bromhead targets these races and his heavy-track SecEff-J marks him down as a key player.

• Status: Declared non-runner (analysis void)
• J: Mr D L Queally
• T: Declan Queally
• Trip: 2m4f
• Trainer RTF%: N/A
• Model Odds (dec): 4.0
• Overround: 109%

Had multiple soft-ground wins and graded form, but has been taken out; any model edge is now purely for reference.

• J: Paul Townend
• T: W P Mullins
• Trip: 2m4f
• Trainer RTF%: 45%
• Model Odds (dec): 4.0
• Overround: 109%

Improving type who arrives off a win and represents the champion yard. Heavy ground remains a small unknown, but his recent SecEff-J and Townend’s booking keep him on the shortlist.

• J: Darragh O’Keeffe
• T: Henry De Bromhead
• Trip: 2m5f
• Trainer RTF%: 48%
• Model Odds (dec): 7.0
• Overround: 115%

Staying-on winner over 3m at Limerick and looks tailor-made for this attritional test. Model notes a small NP<IP, but the heavy-ground stamina credentials are outstanding.

• J: Patrick M O’Brien
• T: F G Hand
• Trip: 2m5f
• Trainer RTF%: N/A
• Model Odds (dec): 20.0
• Overround: 115%

Point winner on heavy and handicapped to strike if recapturing peak form. Model flags a clear NP over IP edge which makes him a live each-way player at big odds.

• J: Conor Stone-Walsh
• T: Gavin Cromwell
• Trip: 2m5f
• Trainer RTF%: 29%
• Model Odds (dec): 9.0
• Overround: 115%

Arrives in superb form with a recent win and has already proven he handles cut in the ground. Model has him about Fair at current prices but he remains a key form horse.

• J: John Shinnick
• T: Terence O’Brien
• Trip: 3m
• Trainer RTF%: 33%
• Model Odds (dec): 10.0
• Overround: 113%

Destroyed a big-field Naas handicap over 3m on heavy last winter and returns to very similar conditions. That piece of form is pure gold and his stamina profile is exactly what Troytown winners need.

• J: Paul Townend
• T: W P Mullins
• Trip: 3m
• Trainer RTF%: 45%
• Model Odds (dec): 5.0
• Overround: 113%

Classy graded performer dropping into a handicap from a dangerous mark. Heavy ground is not guaranteed to suit but the Mullins–Townend factor plus an NP>IP edge keeps him firmly on side.

• J: Patrick M O’Brien
• T: Gavin Cromwell
• Trip: 3m
• Trainer RTF%: 29%
• Model Odds (dec): 11.0
• Overround: 113%

Heavy-ground winner and Festival form in the book, with Cromwell’s team in good order. Model likes him as an each-way Troytown type with enough NP over IP to justify the risk.

• J: Paul Townend
• T: W P Mullins
• Trip: 2m4f150y
• Trainer RTF%: 45%
• Model Odds (dec): 1.33
• Overround: 107%

High-class hurdler switching to fences and likely to outclass these if jumping holds up. Model sees him as by far the likeliest winner but at a Below Fair price with IP greater than NP.

• J: Mark Walsh
• T: Padraig Roche
• Trip: 2m4f150y
• Trainer RTF%: N/A
• Model Odds (dec): 9.0
• Overround: 107%

Capable hurdler with soft-ground form who may be the one to capitalise if the favourite underperforms. Model has him roughly Fair and a logical each-way alternative.

• J: Sean Flanagan
• T: Gavin Cromwell
• Trip: 2m4f150y
• Trainer RTF%: 29%
• Model Odds (dec): 11.0
• Overround: 107%

Has shown bits of ability over hurdles and represents an in-form yard. Not obviously well treated in the market but could sneak into the frame if taking to fences.

• J: Miss J Townend
• T: W P Mullins
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 45%
• Model Odds (dec): 6.5
• Overround: 109%

Already placed at this Listed level and proven on soft ground. Model rates her a fair reflection of her chance and slightly more appealing than the odds-on stablemate.

• J: Mr P W Mullins
• T: W P Mullins
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 45%
• Model Odds (dec): 2.1
• Overround: 109%

Impressive bumper winner and the obvious class act, with model probabilities confirming her as the likeliest winner. Price leaves little margin for error so she stays in the Fair, not Above Fair, bucket.

• J: Mr D G Lavery
• T: Gavin Cromwell
• Trip: 2m
• Trainer RTF%: 29%
• Model Odds (dec): 7.5
• Overround: 109%

Debut winner who then finished well behind Easter Bonnet, but still retains potential. NP running a shade lower than IP makes her slightly Below Fair at current quotes.

Troytown Handicap Chase, 3m, heavy — Answer To Kayf brings a devastating 12-length Naas win over 3m on heavy into almost identical conditions. His SecEff-J from that performance screams stamina and class for this type of war of attrition, and a workable mark plus a handy claim enhance the edge. This is the “run-that-wins” scenario the model likes best on the Navan card — back with confidence.