Bet Smart & Win — Newbury Race Preview
Thursday 06 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 2f 64y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Grade 2 hurdler; class edge on chase debut. NP < IP → Below Fair at likely short odds.
Details
- J: Mr Jamie Neill
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m 2f 64y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Exposed; needs big improvement. NP ≈ IP → Fair to Below Fair.
Details
- J: Philip Armson
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 132.4%
Analysis
C&D winner; strong SecEff-J; NP < IP → Below Fair in a high-overround heat.
Details
- J: Toby McCain-Mitchell
- T: Jane Williams
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 132.4%
Analysis
In form; economical jumper; still Below Fair on pricing.
Details
- J: Lewis Saunders
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 132.4%
Analysis
Four-timer last season; prominent racer; Below Fair in book this big.
Details
- J: Sean Houlihan
- T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112.9%
Analysis
Bumper/point promise; Below Fair on current quotes.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112.9%
Analysis
Form pick; likely to improve; still priced Below Fair.
Details
- J: Ciaran Gethings
- T: Robert Stephens
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112.9%
Analysis
Consistent; place player; Below Fair on current market.
Details
- J: —
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Class act; rightful fav; Below Fair at current quotes.
Details
- J: Paul O’Brien
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 77%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Back-class; NP > IP → Above Fair; chief danger.
Details
- J: Bryan Carver
- T: Harry Fry
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Needs a step forward; Above Fair price for place angles.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 3m 57y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 115.0%
Analysis
Stays well; strong latest SecEff-J; Below Fair but leading chance.
Details
- J: Freddie Gordon
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 3m 57y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 115.0%
Analysis
Classy when right; Below Fair today but still a player.
Details
- J: William Maggs
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 3m 57y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 115.0%
Analysis
Stayer; consistent SecEff-J; Above Fair EW angle (4pl/1/5).
Details
- J: —
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m 3f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Front-runner; strong fencing SecEff-J; Fair value in small field.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 3f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Drop in class helps; needs to find best; Fair.
Details
- J: Rex Dingle
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m 3f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Last-time winner; solid jumper; Fair pricing.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 120.0%
Analysis
Well-bred; good yard. NP < IP → Below Fair in open bumper.
Details
- J: Nico de Boinville
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 120.0%
Analysis
Top connections; Fair debut claims.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 69y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 120.0%
Analysis
Last-time winner; sets the form; Fair value.