Bet Smart & Win — Newbury Race Preview
Friday 24 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Ashley Lewis
- T: Harry Eustace
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong staying profile for soft; trainer in form. Model flags downside on pure value (IP > NP), but stamina/conditions keep him very competitive.
Details
- J: Lauren Young
- T: Jim Goldie
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Hat-trick seeker in rich vein of form; fair-to-positive value with NP > IP. Solid place credentials.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 2m
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent and suited by a test. Value neutral, but stable health and claim help.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 6f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Well-bred debutant from a powerhouse yard; market short, so model shows below-fair value.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Jane Chapple-Hyam
- Trip: 6f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Experience edge and strong rider booking; just shy on value versus market.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Brian Meehan
- Trip: 6f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Has shown ability; respected each-way but price slightly short on model.
Details
- J: Colin Keane
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 6f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Elite profile and top jockey; very short on the board so value reads below fair.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 6f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Big stable, respected; price a touch tight versus model.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 6f 110y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Well-regarded yard; beneath fair on current market but has upside long term.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Gary & Josh Moore
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Soft-ground effective; model reads slightly below fair at current quotes.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
In-form, fair weight; NP > IP gives a modest edge.
Details
- J: Pierre-Louis Jamin
- T: Harry Eustace
- Trip: 1m4f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent type; fair contender though price slightly above model fair.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Rapidly progressive filly chasing a hat-trick; model’s top win chance despite below-fair price.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Oliver Cole
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent and suited by the step up; a major player though just shy on value.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Progressive of late and lightly raced; each-way claims at bigger prices.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m 1y
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Ready yard’s first string; market and model aligned at fair.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m 1y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Well-bred; respected, though slightly under model fair price.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m 1y
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Second string but still interesting; small value deficit versus market.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Well-handicapped on best AW form; model says marginally below fair at current quotes.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Lightly raced and progressive; price a shade short on the model.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Classy veteran; soft-ground question but capable if things fall right.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Michael Dods
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Peak form and handles a test; competitive though price a tad short vs model.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Course form strong; fair price on model with soft ground to prove conclusively.
Details
- J: Finley Marsh
- T: Richard Hughes
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
C&D winner; shape of race could suit for a place at bigger odds.
Analysis
Unexposed filly seeking the hat-trick; highest model NP in R5 and proven on soft. Despite a below-fair market, profile and run-style make her the meeting’s standout.