Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Saturday 1 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value. We focus on Overround, Probability, and Value to find fair opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Top selection on consistency and value (NP > IP). Suited by Tapeta and trip.
Details
- J: Lauren Young
- T: Jim Goldie
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Forecast favourite; model keeps it high due to NP > IP and good recent figures.
Details
- J: Mohammed Tabti
- T: Iain Jardine
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent and well-handicapped; reliable place option.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: S Woods
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Sets the form standard and is priced fairly by the market.
Details
- J: Ben Robinson
- T: Brian Ellison
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Unexposed and improving; main danger to the favourite.
Details
- J: Joe Fanning
- T: David & Nicola Barron
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Good introductory effort; place claims maintained here.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: Charles Hills
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Top pick on trainer form and rising performance profile.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Unlucky not to win last run; solid chance again.
Details
- J: David Nolan
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Consistent and reliable; value is fair at current probabilities.
Details
- J: Billy Garritty
- T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Arrives in form; model puts him top on NP/IP balance.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Well handled here before; the obvious danger.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Michael Dods
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Capable on best; model sees him firmly in the frame.
Details
- J: Cam Hardie
- T: Antony Brittain
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Course-suited sprinter; model’s preferred play and also the NAP.
Details
- J: David Allan
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Better than last run; model keeps him on-side at current terms.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: Phil McEntee
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Reliable AW sprinter; place player again.
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds
- T: Harry Charlton
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Unexposed in handicaps and projecting upwards; clear chance.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: S Woods
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Forecast favourite; holds the form edge but not much value against Why Because.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Handicapped to figure; likely involved late.
Details
- J: David Allan
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Well treated for AW; makes plenty of appeal despite high overround.
Details
- J: Alistair Rawlinson
- T: Philip Kirby
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Comes here in winning form; model respects but monitors price.
Details
- J: Cam Hardie
- T: Antony Brittain
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Solid C&D form; shortlist material once market settles.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Katie Scott
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Unlucky on his only C&D run; can make amends.
Details
- J: James Sullivan
- T: Ruth Carr
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Well handicapped on C&D form; strong alternative.
Details
- J: David Allan
- T: Geoffrey Harker
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent in the grade; another with solid place credentials.
Analysis
Course-loving sprinter; NP (26%) comfortably clears IP (24%); overround is within target; trainer RTF 50% confirms stable health. This is the model’s strongest run-that-wins scenario on the card.
Details
- J: Cam Hardie
- T: Antony Brittain
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: not provided
- Overround: 106%