Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Tue 14/10/25 • 8 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Clear standout on NP with AF value versus IP; ideal conditions/class drop for the favourite.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Meets most criteria; main place danger to the favourite.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Main place threat on figures; AF value retained.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: John Butler
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Top pick with AF; qualifies on all metrics including whitelist jockey and NP band.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Ewan Whillans
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Solid second choice; AF value retained.
Details
- J: David Nolan
- T: Patrick Morris
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Completes the trio; competitive handicap.
Details
- J: Jamie Spencer
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 5f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Best probability with AF; narrowly ahead of Capitalization.
Details
- J: James Doyle
- T: Hamad Al Jehani
- Trip: 5f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Close second on figures; AF retained.
Details
- J: Harrison Shaw
- T: Bryan Smart
- Trip: 5f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Third on NP; maintains AF edge.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 6f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Strong fav; AF rating, clear top on NP.
Details
- J: Harrison Shaw
- T: Adrian Nicholls
- Trip: 6f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Next best; credible place chance.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 6f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Third pick; AF with whitelist jockey support.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: John David Riches
- Trip: 6f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Standout on NP with AF; controls the market.
Details
- J: Tom Kiely-Marshall
- T: Julie Camacho
- Trip: 6f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Main danger; AF edge intact.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Michael Herrington
- Trip: 6f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Third string; place claims.
Details
- J: Joe Fanning
- T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
- Trip: 1m5y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Model top; small field (7) prevents strict qualification.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Jedd O’Keeffe
- Trip: 1m5y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Clear second pick; AF differential maintained.
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: Craig Lidster
- Trip: 1m5y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Third choice; consistent figures.
Details
- J: Oisin McSweeney
- T: Julie Camacho
- Trip: 6f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Marginal top pick in a wide-open heat; AF retained.
Details
- J: Ryan Sexton
- T: Julie Camacho
- Trip: 6f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Second selection; numbers tight among principals.
Details
- J: Ethan Tindall
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 6f
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Third pick; AF with modest edge.
Details
- J: Aiden Brookes
- T: Iain Jardine
- Trip: 1m5y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Dominant probability with AF; clear “run-that-wins” setup on the figures.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 1m5y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Clear second best on NP; AF value steady.
Details
- J: Rhys Elliott
- T: Mark Walford
- Trip: 1m5y
- RTF%: —
- Odds: —
Analysis
Third selection; numbers support inclusion over the pack.
Analysis
Highest normalized probability of the meeting, significant AF value, unbeaten for new yard, and ideal race setup (Class 6, 1m5y, Standard). This is the “run-that-wins” scenario — back with confidence.