Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Friday 14 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: Brian Ellison
- Trip: 2m 4f 62y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 6/1 (7.0)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Proven stamina at this trip and has handled soft ground. Yard in fair form and SecEff-J is solid; likely to be prominent in a race lacking a standout front-runner. Strong completion record and the step up in trip looks ideal. Value rated Above Fair.
Details
- J: Robert Dunne
- T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
- Trip: 2m 4f 62y
- Trainer RTF%: 19%
- Odds: 9/2 (5.5)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Point winner on heavy so underfoot conditions are a big plus. Stamina looks an asset and he’s likely to be ridden positively. First start over hurdles is an unknown, but his profile is strong and the model marks him Above Fair.
Details
- J: Gregor Walkingshaw
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 4f 62y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: 5/1 (6.0)
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Shaped well when third over hurdles at Carlisle on soft, confirming this trip is a positive. Tongue-tie looks a plus and his jumping is reliable. Another with NP comfortably above IP, rated Above Fair at the current price.
Details
- J: Ryan Mania
- T: Paul Robson
- Trip: 2m 4f 19y
- Trainer RTF%: 14%
- Odds: 8/1 (9.0)
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Lightly raced chaser who shaped better than the bare form at Perth. Softer ground should suit and first-time cheekpieces can sharpen his jumping. Attractive NP>IP profile and looks an Above Fair each-way play in a wide-open race.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: Jackie Stephen
- Trip: 2m 4f 19y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: 6/1 (7.0)
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Already a winner on soft and proven stayer at this trip. Likely to be ridden positively, which is often rewarded round here. Jumping is generally sound and the AI has him Above Fair with NP comfortably ahead of IP.
Details
- J: Tom Midgley
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 2m 4f 19y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: 15/2 (8.5)
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Consistent type with multiple recent placed efforts and handles soft ground. Needs to bounce back from a lesser run but is well treated if doing so. Each-way viable with NP still ahead of IP at double-figure odds.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
- Trip: 2m 4f 62y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: 9/1 (10.0)
- Overround: 112.8%
Analysis
C&D winner who relishes soft ground and returns from a workable mark. Strong SecEff-J profile around here and he usually jumps well. Fresh record is solid and the model marks him Above Fair at double-figure odds; each-way angle.
Details
- J: Dylan Johnston
- T: Gary Rutherford
- Trip: 2m 4f 62y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: 5/1 (6.0)
- Overround: 112.8%
Analysis
Comes here in form after winning on soft and remains unexposed at this sort of trip. The step up in grade is the main question, but progression is evident and AF value is still available with NP comfortably ahead of IP.
Details
- J: Joe Williamson
- T: Philip Kirby
- Trip: 2m 4f 62y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: 7/1 (8.0)
- Overround: 112.8%
Analysis
Reliable handicapper who often runs his race and handles soft ground well. Stays this trip strongly and usually finishes off. Mark leaves room for a win and the AI rates him Above Fair; solid each-way with 4 places on offer.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: Ben Haslam
- Trip: 2m 4f 19y
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds: 6/1 (7.0)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
In terrific form with back-to-back wins and a strong C&D profile on soft. SecEff-J figures show him finishing powerfully here last time and he remains fairly treated. With NP>IP and conditions identical, he rates a standout Above Fair.
Details
- J: Harry Bannister
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m 4f 19y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: 11/4 (3.75)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Impressive recent winner who could be a class above these if reproducing his best. Shorter price means Value is only Fair, but his win chance is obvious and he rates the main danger to Arthur’s Quay.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 4f 19y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: 13/2 (7.5)
- Overround: 107.5%
Analysis
Course winner who has slipped to a competitive mark. Needs to bounce back from a below-par effort, but the underlying figures remain solid. Another with NP>IP and Above Fair value at bigger odds.
Details
- J: William Maggs
- T: Justin Landy
- Trip: 2m 7f 149y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: 4/1 (5.0)
- Overround: 109.0%
Analysis
C&D winner whose stamina is a key asset in these conditions. SecEff-J is excellent over staying trips and he arrives in form. With NP well above IP he rates Above Fair and a major contender.
Details
- J: Ross Chapman
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 2m 7f 149y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: 9/2 (5.5)
- Overround: 109.0%
Analysis
Another C&D winner who thrives on a test of stamina. Genuine mare who usually gives her running and remains well enough treated to be competitive. Above Fair on the model with NP>IP.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
- Trip: 2m 7f 149y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: 11/1 (12.0)
- Overround: 109.0%
Analysis
Soft/heavy ground clearly suits and she is well handicapped if fully tuned up after a break. Marathon trip looks ideal and NP still shades IP at a double-figure price. Above Fair each-way player.
Details
- J: Callum Bewley
- T: Martin Todhunter
- Trip: 2m 75y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: 4/1 (5.0)
- Overround: 106.5%
Analysis
Consistent and effective on soft ground. Shaped well for a long way in a stronger race last time and this looks easier. With NP>IP and a fair mark, he rates an Above Fair option.
Details
- J: Benjamin Macey
- T: Tom Gretton
- Trip: 2m 75y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: 7/4 (2.75)
- Overround: 106.5%
Analysis
Clearly possesses the ability to win another of these, but he is inconsistent and carries a penalty. The model has him as a short-priced favourite with Value only Fair given his patchy profile.
Details
- J: Ross Chapman
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 2m 75y
- Trainer RTF%: 32%
- Odds: 10/1 (11.0)
- Overround: 106.5%
Analysis
C&D winner who is now 4lb below his last successful mark. Needs to rediscover his form, but visor could help and the price is fair rather than inflated. Place claims if bouncing back.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith
- Trip: 2m 190y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: 11/2 (6.5)
- Overround: 108.0%
Analysis
From a stable that does well with bumper horses and out of a mare who has produced soft-ground winners. Pedigree suggests stamina and an aptitude for testing conditions. Market support would be significant and the AI sees Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Patrick Wadge
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 190y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: 11/4 (3.75)
- Overround: 108.0%
Analysis
By a leading NH sire and from a yard that excels with young horses. Likely to be well found in the market and the model has Value as Fair at current odds.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m 190y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: 9/2 (5.5)
- Overround: 108.0%
Analysis
From the same powerful yard as Marvel Magic, suggesting strong homework. Pedigree leans toward stamina and a proper test will suit. With NP>IP, he offers Above Fair value as the stable second string.
Analysis
C&D winner on soft who arrives in peak form after two strong wins. SecEff-J shows him finishing powerfully over this exact trip and he remains on a workable mark in a 107.5% book. With NP>IP and conditions replicated, he is the clearest “run-that-wins” scenario on the card. Back with confidence as our Nap of the Meeting.