Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Monday 17 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: William Carver
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Trainer RTF%: 8%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Classy sort who sets the standard on peak efforts; clear form pick and most likely winner if recapturing best.
Details
- J: Luke Catton
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Represents powerful connections and is weighted to get involved if reproducing his better turf figures on Tapeta.
Details
- J: Ethan Tindall
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 1m2f42y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Progressive type now with a new yard; profile suggests he can be very competitive if taking to this deeper company.
Details
- J: Luke Catton
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Well-bred newcomer from a top stable; narrow model favourite in what looks a match on paper.
Details
- J: Aidan Keeley
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Another smartly-bred debutant from a yard that does well with juveniles; main danger and could easily be the best of these.
Details
- J: Jonny Peate
- T: Ivan Furtado
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Likely to be better for the experience; clear outsider on market signals but not dismissed for long-term progress.
Details
- J: George Bass
- T: Jack Channon
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Shaped very well at Salisbury and remains on a workable mark; taken to confirm that promise back on the all-weather.
Details
- J: Jack Garritty
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Arrives on the back of solid nursery form and should be involved again if getting the breaks from mid-division.
Details
- J: Liam Wright
- T: Hugo Palmer
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent and shaping as though this trip suits well; rock-solid place contender with upside if the pace collapses.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Improved markedly on nursery debut and looks well-placed off this mark; taken to progress again for an in-form yard.
Details
- J: Cian Horgan
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Comes here after a win and clearly thriving; obvious player if reproducing that level under similar conditions.
Details
- J: Greg Fairley
- T: Ewan Whillans
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent and rarely far away; another who should be in the shake-up if the race becomes a test of stamina.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Penalised for a tidy Chelmsford win but still rates the one to beat if handling this slightly different test.
Details
- J: William Carver
- T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Has shown ability and should be sharper again; clear danger if building on recent efforts.
Details
- J: Pierre-Louis Jamin
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Speedily bred newcomer from a yard that can ready one first time; needs respecting in a race lacking depth.
Details
- J: Harry Burns
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Forgive the latest run on deep ground; prior Tapeta form marks him as still ahead of the assessor and he rates the one to beat.
Details
- J: Jack Garritty
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Reliable handicapper with recent placed form; should get a good tow into the race and be thereabouts late.
Details
- J: Amie Waugh
- T: Jim Goldie
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 23%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Course-and-distance winner who is handicapped to get involved again if things fall right tactically.
Details
- J: William Carver
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 8%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Lightly raced and suggested there is more to come; profile hints she can find improvement back on the all-weather.
Details
- J: Jonny Peate
- T: James Ferguson
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
In good form overall and holds solid handicap credentials; major player if the race unfolds to suit closers.
Details
- J: Ryan Sexton
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Running consistently well and has the form to feature once more; should give another honest account.
Details
- J: Duran Fentiman
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent handicapper with solid recent figures; should be right in the thick of it again if breaking on terms.
Details
- J: Jonny Peate
- T: Ivan Furtado
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
In excellent nick overall and chasing another victory; big chance if the draw and pace set-up cooperate.
Details
- J: Barry McHugh
- T: Paul Midgley
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 83%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Interesting contender switched to the all-weather; if taking to Tapeta he could outrun his odds.
Details
- Race: Make The Move To Midnite Handicap (6:10)
- Course: Newcastle (AW)
- Trip: 6f
- J: Harry Burns
- T: William Haggas
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
This is the standout candidate on the card. Maelstrom is a progressive sprinter whose Tapeta profile suggests he is still ahead of the handicapper; the model’s “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest here. Back with confidence.