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Newcastle 19/09/25 – Tap to Enter!

#Analysis, #Betting, #Horse Racing, #Predictions, #Sport
Newcastle (AW) — Thu 18/09/25
Bet Smart & Win
Races: 8 (1–8)

How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge

Our AI breaks down each bookmaker’s overround to uncover true fair value and identify Above-Fair (AF) plays.

How we pick winners
  • Overround: 100–115% (green)
  • Runners: 8–12
  • Value: AF only when NP > IP
  • Class: 5, 4 or 3
  • Jockey: on strict whitelist
  • NP: ≥ 27 and IP: below NP
1

Race 1

16:33
High Gosforth Park Golf Club Hcap (Class 6) (1m2f42y)
Overround: 111% Class: 6 Runners: 10 Standard

#6 That Lucas Fella (Form: 8224933b1)

J: Rowan Scott
NP: 13%IP: 9%17/20
Details
Trainer: Iain JardineRTF%: 33AF
Why we like this
  • Top value pick with NP > IP in a 111% book.

#7 Duffus Castle (Form: 0884513b)

J: P J McDonald
NP: 15%IP: 13%16/20
Details
Trainer: Philip McBrideRTF%: 50AF
Why we like this
  • Forecast favourite; strong form claims.

#5 Grizzieblanca (Form: 8678413)

J: Ben Robinson
NP: 12%IP: 10%15/20
Details
Trainer: Brian EllisonRTF%: 42AF
Why we like this
  • Profile fits; fair value in a competitive heat.
2

Race 2

17:08
Ardor Bull Run Handicap (Class 6) (2m56y)
Overround: 108% Class: 6 Runners: 6 Standard

#1 Quercus Robur (Form: 3515916p)

J: Cam Hardie
NP: 32%IP: 29%18/20
Details
Trainer: Adam NicolRTF%: 100AF
Why we like this
  • Clear standout on form and NP; AF value.

#2 Queen Roslyn (Form: 6-68174)

J: Ben Robinson
NP: 17%IP: 14%15/20
Details
Trainer: Brian EllisonRTF%: 42AF
Why we like this
  • Main danger by market & conditions.

#4 Lillistar (Form: 90-6525)

J: Aiden Brookes
NP: 17%IP: 14%15/20
Details
Trainer: Micky HammondRTF%: 29AF
Why we like this
  • Second favourite; fits value criteria.
3

Race 3

17:44
Jimbo Thompson Bluesky EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies’ (C5) (6f)
Overround: 112% Class: 5 Runners: 13 Standard

#12 Ten Sixty Six (Form: 2232)

J: Cian Horgan
NP: 20%IP: 18%17/20
Details
Trainer: David O’MearaRTF%: 50F
Why we like this
  • Justified favourite; fair value.

#8 Gwen's Girl (Form: 22)

J: Ben Robinson
NP: 12%IP: 11%15/20
Details
Trainer: Mark WalfordRTF%: 63F
Why we like this
  • Prime contender off promising debut.

#10 Startled Lady (Form: 92302)

J: Jefferson Smith
NP: 9%IP: 8%14/20
Details
Trainer: William KnightRTF%: 31F
Why we like this
  • Experienced; fair value in open race.
4

Race 4

18:15
Border Minstrel Maiden Stakes (GBB) (Class 5) (7f14y)
Overround: 107% Class: 5 Runners: 6 Standard

#2 Great Dream (Form: 8-3443)

J: Jack Mitchell
NP: 35%IP: 32%18/20
Details
Trainer: Simon & Ed CrisfordRTF%: 41AF
Why we like this
  • Best form on paper; strong value.

#1 Fierce Fortitude (Form: 433)

J: Rowan Scott
NP: 23%IP: 21%16/20
Details
Trainer: Kevin Philippart De FoyRTF%: 68AF
Why we like this
  • Consistent; should be in the mix.

#6 Thaisa (Form: 38-33h)

J: P J McDonald
NP: 28%IP: 26%15/20
Details
Trainer: Andrew BaldingRTF%: 55BF
Why we like this
  • Respected but priced below fair (BF).
5

Race 5

18:45
Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Hcap (Class 6) (1m5y)
Overround: 111% Class: 6 Runners: 11 Standard

#10 Sassy Glory (Form: 3222414p)

J: Rhys Elliott
NP: 22%IP: 20%17/20
Details
Trainer: Mark WalfordRTF%: 63AF
Why we like this
  • Well-handicapped; AF value.

#6 Yafaarr (Form: 0-58543)

J: P J McDonald
NP: 12%IP: 11%15/20
Details
Trainer: Sam EnglandRTF%: 46AF
Why we like this
  • Value angle after stable debut.

#3 Desert Raider (Form: -208234)

J: Shay Farmer
NP: 12%IP: 11%14/20
Details
Trainer: Ian McInnesRTF%: 0F
Why we like this
  • Market contender; fair.
6

Race 6

19:15
Border Minstrel Sunday Lunch Hcap (Class 6) (6f)
Overround: 111% Class: 6 Runners: 10 Standard

#4 Invitorio (Form: 0606923)

J: James Sullivan
NP: 23%IP: 21%18/20
Details
Trainer: Ruth CarrRTF%: 42AF
Why we like this
  • NAP pick: handicapped to win; strong value.

#5 Asadjumeirah (Form: 7483517tp)

J: Cam Hardie
NP: 14%IP: 13%15/20
Details
Trainer: Antony BrittainRTF%: 20F
Why we like this
  • CD winner; respected.

#7 Bazball (Form: 6079324tb)

J: Barry McHugh
NP: 10%IP: 9%14/20
Details
Trainer: Joel Parkinson & Sue SmithRTF%: 50F
Why we like this
  • Interesting at a price; fair value.
7

Race 7

19:45
ARC All-Weather £1Million Bonus Returns Hcap (Class 5) (7f14y)
Overround: 108% Class: 5 Runners: 7 Standard

#2 Riot (Form: 2580048tv)

J: David Nolan
NP: 26%IP: 24%17/20
Details
Trainer: David O’MearaRTF%: 50AF
Why we like this
  • Tipped to reverse form with Mister Mojito.

#3 Mister Mojito (Form: 9175534t)

J: Ray Dawson
NP: 24%IP: 22%16/20
Details
Trainer: T J KentRTF%: 100AF
Why we like this
  • Obvious danger on recent efforts.

#4 Yaajooz (Form: 3202734)

J: Billy Garritty
NP: 11%IP: 10%14/20
Details
Trainer: Michael & David EasterbyRTF%: 52F
Why we like this
  • Each-way value.
8

Race 8

20:15
ARC £1Million Bonus Has £150K Increase! Hcap (Class 6) (5f)
Overround: 115% Class: 6 Runners: 14 Standard

#5 Lady Of The Garr (Form: 1025524)

J: Kieran O’Neill
NP: 9%IP: 8%15/20
Details
Trainer: Tracy WaggottRTF%: 50AF
Why we like this
  • Value to go one better than recent 2nd.

#1 Sanbona (Form: 3921213v)

J: Rhys Elliott
NP: 25%IP: 23%17/20
Details
Trainer: Michael DodsRTF%: 42AF
Why we like this
  • Class angle under a penalty; major player.

#13 Latin Five (Form: 4635638)

J: David Nolan
NP: 8%IP: 7%14/20
Details
Trainer: Paul MidgleyRTF%: 47F
Why we like this
  • Consistent; fair each-way value.
NAP
Newcastle (AW)
19:15
Border Minstrel Sunday Lunch Hcap (Class 6)

Newcastle (AW) — NAP

Overround: 111% Class: 6 Runners: 10 Standard

#4 Invitorio (Form: 0606923)

J: James Sullivan
NP: 23%IP: 21%19/20
Details
Trainer: Ruth CarrConfidence: Strong mark • AF • Ideal conditionsAF
Why we like this
  • “Run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model; back with confidence.

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