Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Tuesday 21 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Daniel Tudhope
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m4f98y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Lightly raced, strong recent form; top connections. The one to beat.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: George Scott
- Trip: 1m4f98y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Unexposed dual C&D winner; step up in trip may suit. Solid each-way against fav.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
- Trip: 1m4f98y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Highest-rated; needs to rebound from below-par run. Capable if back to best.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Most experience and solid efforts; sets the standard.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Promising debut; improvement expected up in trip. Main danger.
Details
- J: Daniel Tudhope
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 7f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Needs more on bare form; not dismissed given stable prowess.
Details
- J: Silvestre De Sousa
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Excellent promise; entitled to step forward. Narrow favourite.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Debut promise; yard in form. Serious contender; model slight preference.
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Experience edge; needs more to trouble principals.
Details
- J: Barry McHugh
- T: Paul Midgley
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Consistent; strong booking. Model top pick in competitive field.
Details
- J: James Sullivan
- T: Ruth Carr
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
C&D player; dangerously treated if bouncing back.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: David Thompson
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Recent C&D winner; competitive off current mark; good draw helps.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Unexposed 3yo; impressive C&D win; profile screams progress.
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: Ivan Furtado
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Also a recent C&D winner; main threat to Terrapin.
Details
- J: Silvestre De Sousa
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 1m5y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Comes here off a win; needs to prove up in this company.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Consistent and well-drawn; ready to strike on figures.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Paul Midgley
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Course winner; proven contender who should be involved late.
Details
- J: Rowan Scott
- T: Phillip Makin
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 75%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Reliable C&D performer; solid each-way value.
Details
- J: Joe Fanning
- T: Harriet Bethell
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Excellent since hood; recent C&D win; leading claims.
Details
- J: Cam Hardie
- T: Antony Brittain
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Cosy winner here last time; obvious danger.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Ben Haslam
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Respectable form; another C&D winner; frame chance.
Details
- J: Mason Paetel
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Well-handicapped and back at preferred track; weighted to run big.
Details
- J: Oisin McSweeney
- T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Market leader in form; 4lb higher than last win—still respected.
Details
- J: Alex Jary
- T: Antony Brittain
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Claims on peak efforts; place squeak.
Analysis
Unexposed 3yo; C&D win last time; progressive profile. Back with confidence.