Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Thu 25/09/25 • 8 Race Card • 3 selections per race – In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
We turn the bookmakers’ margin to our advantage. Our custom AI model applies a precise mathematical formula to strip out the bookmaker’s overround, revealing the true market value of each race. Combined with our proven system, this approach consistently delivers an exceptional place strike rate of over 80%.
How We Pick Winners
- Overround 100–115% (green)
- Runners 8–12
- Value: AF
- Class: 5, 4 or 3
- Whitelist jockeys
- NP ≥ 27, IP < NP
Details
- Trainer: Edward Bethell
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 4
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Top selection after a smooth handicap debut win and open to further progress; model flags price heat (IP>NP) but the profile still appeals on upside.
Details
- Trainer: Michael Bell
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 4
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent recent form marks her as the main danger; a solid yard/jockey combo but efficiency slightly soft at current quotes (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 4
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Interesting up in trip for handicap debut and looks fairly treated; watch the market but current pricing leans rich (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: Ollie Pears
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Escapes a penalty for a decisive Thirsk win and is taken to follow up; figures say he’s the likely winner though a tad short (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: Richard Fahey
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Last-time-out C&D winner who holds fair claims again; pricing looks about right with NP≈IP.
Details
- Trainer: Christopher Kellett
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Back in form and well suited by track and trip; modest overlay (AF) makes him a live each-way/place player.
Details
- Trainer: William Haggas
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Costly breeze-up buy with smart pedigree; debut claims are strong, though market likely leans too hot versus our neutral line (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: K R Burke
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Sets the standard off a promising debut third; fair price marker with balanced NP and IP.
Details
- Trainer: Oliver Cole
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Appealing pedigree and top connections; looks the other main debut danger though a shade short on our line (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: Jennie Candlish
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Denied by a nose last time and trending up; ready to confirm that promise, albeit market slightly ahead of us (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: William Knight
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Only LTO winner but vulnerable under a penalty; currently priced warm versus true chance (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: Daragh Bourke
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Back sprinting should help; fair price line with potential to outrun odds if pace collapses.
Details
- Trainer: Ralph Beckett
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Should confirm Windsor superiority over Canopus despite 7lb swing; strongest on form, though book slightly overconfident (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: Ed Walker
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Big step forward last time and doesn’t need to find much more; slight overlay (AF) if the favourite underperforms.
Details
- Trainer: William Haggas
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Newcomer from a powerful yard; market watch advised but current quote a notch optimistic (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: Bryan Smart
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Two solid handicap efforts suggest more to come; the one to beat on profile, though trimmed a touch short (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Knocking on the door and has a big shout to break through; value light at current quote (IP>NP).
Details
- Trainer: David O’Meara
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Handicap debut off a workable mark; sneaky place angle with the right trip, though only a small overlay if she drifts.
Details
- Trainer: Tina Jackson
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Unchanged mark after a win makes the quick double feasible; modest overlay (AF) keeps her top of the list.
Details
- Trainer: Ollie Pears
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
CD winner and huge threat once more; market has him about right (fair).
Details
- Trainer: Iain Jardine
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 6
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Back to minimum trip after showing pace last time; interesting at a price, though efficiency light unless she drifts.
Details
- Trainer: James Ferguson
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Breakthrough win last time and still looks competitive; headgear/attitude positives and stable form strong—our nap despite book a shade warm.
Details
- Trainer: James Owen
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Back on track with a better Kempton run and well in at the weights; competitive chance if finding a clean trip, but price a touch hot.
Details
- Trainer: Michael Dods
- RTF: —
- Class: Class 5
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent C&D player who keeps holding form; should remain competitive and rates a solid place contender.