🏇 Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
🏁 Race 1 — Download The At The Races App Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
- Distance: 2m 190y
- Time: 1:08
- Runners: 9 • Going: Good to Firm • Class: 4 • Overround: 111%
Selections: 1️⃣ Cueros (Form: 66F) — J: Paul O’Brien T: Harry Derham RTF%: 71 NP: 32% IP: 22%
2️⃣ Crazy About Her (Form: 2782-5) — J: Tabitha Worsley T: Jake Thomas Coulson RTF%: 33 NP: 25% IP: 19%
3️⃣ Marhaba The Champ (Form: 46) — J: Danny McMenamin T: Sophie Leech RTF%: 50 NP: 16% IP: 14%
Analysis:
Cueros is the clear top pick based on superior flat form and strong market support. Crazy About Her brings the best hurdles form to the table and represents solid each-way value. Marhaba The Champ is an unexposed type whose price offers some value against the favourites.
🏁 Race 2 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 Novices’ Handicap Chase
- Distance: 2m 7f 91y
- Time: 1:38
- Runners: 6 • Going: Good to Firm • Class: 5 • Overround: 108%
Selections: 3️⃣ Couldbeaweapon (Form: 242311) — J: Tom Midgley T: Sam England RTF%: 92 NP: 40% IP: 50%
4️⃣ Sir Carnegie (Form: 5F95425) — J: Shane Fenelon T: Mickey Bowen RTF%: 50 NP: 24% IP: 19%
5️⃣ Radharc Na Slaine (Form: 235215) — J: Charlie Hammond T: David Rees RTF%: 100 NP: 11% IP: 10%
Analysis:
Couldbeaweapon is well-in due to a future penalty but the value assessment is Below Fair. Sir Carnegie is the value selection, with conditions to suit and NP > IP. Radharc Na Slaine is a consistent performer whose trainer is in excellent form.
🏁 Race 3 — Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap Hurdle
- Distance: 2m 190y
- Time: 2:08
- Runners: 11 • Going: Good to Firm • Class: 5 • Overround: 112%
Selections: 10️⃣ Balranald (Form: 454-629) — J: Jamie Hamilton T: Alison Hamilton RTF%: 0 NP: 12% IP: 10%
8️⃣ Fairly Fulling (Form: 05P7-47) — J: Nathan Moscrop T: Susan Corbett RTF%: 50 NP: 20% IP: 18%
3️⃣ Platenium (Form: 654146) — J: Jonathan England T: Sam England RTF%: 92 NP: 17% IP: 18%
Analysis:
Balranald is a previous course-and-distance winner and offers Above Fair value. Fairly Fulling is the market favourite and arrives after a sound run following a break. Platenium is a solid contender but rates slightly Below Fair.
🏁 Race 4 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 “Chasing Excellence” Beginners’ Chase (GBB Race)
- Distance: 2m 7f 91y
- Time: 2:38
- Runners: 3 • Going: Good to Firm • Class: 3 • Overround: 107%
Selections: 3️⃣ Secret Trix (Form: 9-362U8) — J: Kevin Brogan T: Olly Murphy RTF%: 81 NP: 50% IP: 60%
1️⃣ Chasingouttheblues (Form: 1306-36) — J: Jamie Hamilton T: Mark Walford RTF%: 29 NP: 31% IP: 31%
4️⃣ You Some Girl (Form: 093148) — J: Ross Chapman T: Rebecca Menzies RTF%: 36 NP: 19% IP: 14%
Analysis:
Secret Trix is the clear pick on official marks and should win if jumping cleanly, though his value is Below Fair. Chasingouttheblues is a solid second choice (Fair value). You Some Girl offers Above Fair value at a bigger price.
🏁 Race 5 — Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle (Go North Brindisi Breeze Qualifier)
- Distance: 2m 7f 149y
- Time: 3:08
- Runners: 7 • Going: Good To Firm • Class: 4 • Overround: 109%
Selections: 6️⃣ Fairlawn Skipper (Form: 3-12335) — J: Shane Fenelon T: Mickey Bowen RTF%: 50 NP: 21% IP: 22%
3️⃣ Hostile Hotelier (Form: 3F42127) — J: Sean Quinlan T: Jennie Candlish RTF%: 50 NP: 25% IP: 29%
5️⃣ Do No Wrong (Form: 1951P29) — J: William Maggs T: Justin Landy RTF%: 0 NP: 20% IP: 23%
Analysis:
Fairlawn Skipper should improve for this longer trip on handicap debut and holds a Fair value rating. Hostile Hotelier is the form pick but Below Fair on price. Do No Wrong is another danger but offers limited value.
🏁 Race 6 — attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Chase (Go North Monet’s Garden Qualifier) (GBB Race)
- Distance: 2m 4f 19y
- Time: 3:38
- Runners: 5 • Going: Good To Firm • Class: 4 • Overround: 108%
Selections: 5️⃣ Cracking Destiny (Form: 413751) — J: Craig Nichol T: Ewan Whillans RTF%: 14 NP: 19% IP: 22%
3️⃣ Whizz Kid (Form: 330563) — J: Charlie Hammond T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole RTF%: 33 NP: 30% IP: 36%
2️⃣ Half Shot (Form: 533043) — J: Brian Hughes T: Iain Jardine RTF%: 38 NP: 24% IP: 27%
Analysis:
Cracking Destiny is the tentative selection and offers Above Fair value if recapturing best form. Whizz Kid is the market leader but Below Fair price. Half Shot is in good form yet also Below Fair.
🏁 Race 7 — Download The Raceday Ready App Open Maiden NH Flat Race (Cat 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)
- Distance: 2m 190y
- Time: 4:08
- Runners: 8 • Going: Good To Firm • Class: 5 • Overround: 110%
Selections: 4️⃣ Monte A Bord (Form: 24) — J: Tom Midgley T: Michael & David Easterby RTF%: 35 NP: 28% IP: 36%
1️⃣ Port Station (Form: 2-5) — J: William Maggs T: Iain Jardine RTF%: 38 NP: 22% IP: 22%
8️⃣ Connells Cross (Form: 24) — J: Sean Quinlan T: Jennie Candlish RTF%: 50 NP: 14% IP: 14%
Analysis:
Monte A Bord brings the best form from a promising second at Kelso and is the logical favourite, though Below Fair value. Port Station has experience and represents Fair value. Connells Cross is another with experience and a Fair value rating.
🌟 Nap of the Meeting — Newcastle
Horse: Monte A Bord (#4, Form: 24)
Confidence Factors: Strong debut form, top trainer/jockey combo, and favourable race setup.
Summary: This is our Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the AI model. Back with confidence.
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