Bet Smart & Win — Newmarket Race Preview
Saturday 01 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
We favour races where the Overround is between 100% and 115%, field sizes are competitive, and the Normalized Probability (NP) is higher than the Implied Probability (IP). That’s the edge. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are drawn from our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Appleby filly with strongest profile, NP well above IP and trainer hot. Model says Above Fair.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Two solid runs; powerful yard; fits the value window behind the Appleby filly.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Oliver Cole
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Progressive filly; NP > IP so in the value lane. Each-way Placepot support.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Top stable, Listed level, NP comfortably above IP — classic Above Fair setup.
Details
- J: Dougie Costello
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Appleby filly with unexposed profile; sits right in our 20–25% window.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Solid Listed profile; NP still outpoints IP — acceptable value.
Details
- J: Sean Kirrane
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 1m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Confident model pick on handicap debut; NP comfortably above IP; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Danger to the favourite; strong yard; still value-positive.
Details
- J: Pierre-Louis Jamin
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 1m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Very consistent; NP still tops IP so stays on the list.
Details
- J: Jamie Spencer
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Well-suited to a big-field 1m at HQ; NP clearly ahead of market’s IP; model’s top.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Reliable profile; jockey in our whitelist; solid secondary play.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Harry Eustace
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Unexposed 3yo, NP comfortably above IP, makes our 3-deep list.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Darryll Holland
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Model’s top in a competitive 6f; NP > IP = we stay on.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: William Stone
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Well-treated and draws a whitelist rider — ticks enough boxes.
Details
- J: Ethan Tindall
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
In-and-out form but NP stays ahead of IP — remains on our 3-deep list.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Owen Burrows
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Clear top on NP, still value vs market IP — progressive, perfect Listed target. Model NAP candidate.
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent yard form; looks second best on model numbers.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Honest, model has him 3rd best; supports exacta and trifecta plays.
Details
- J: Aiden Brookes
- T: Simon West
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Consistent filly, NP>IP in an 8-runner Cl4 = exactly our lane.
Details
- J: Charles Bishop
- T: Eve Johnson Houghton
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Big danger if reproducing peak; NP still higher so we keep him.
Details
- J: Dougie Costello
- T: Steph Hollinshead
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Unexposed; fits as the third Placepot leg.
Analysis
This is our best bet on the Newmarket card: Above Fair, Listed class, progressive, and the market still hasn’t fully caught up. Back with confidence.