Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Betfred Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race)
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 1:45
First: Falakeyah
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 1-
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Trainer: Owen Burrows
Trainer RTF% Form: 63%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Qilin Queen
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 312-
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Ed Walker
Trainer RTF% Form: 54%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 93
TS: 85
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Falakeyah is unbeaten and has shown class in her debut. Qilin Queen has consistent form and a strong OR/TS combo.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Qilin Queen’s stamina may give her an edge.
Race Name: Betfred Dahlia Stakes (Group 2)
Race Distance: 1m1f
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 2:20
First: Running Lion
Age: 5
Weight: 9-2
Form: 28172-
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 114
TS: 100
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Cinderella’s Dream
Age: 4
Weight: 9-2
Form: 7112-2
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 114
TS: 99
Probability: Second Horse High
Analysis: Running Lion has the highest RPR (129) and proven class. Cinderella’s Dream is consistent but may lack a turn of foot.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Cinderella’s Dream could close late.
Race Name: Betfred Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
Race Distance: 1m6f
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 2:55
First: Liam Swagger
Age: 4
Weight: 8-8
Form: 252-13
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Harry Davies
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF% Form: 43%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 83
TS: 95
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Wild Waves
Age: 4
Weight: 9-11
Form: 1046-0
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 100
TS: 100
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Liam Swagger is lightly raced and improving. Wild Waves has a strong TS but inconsistent form.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace collapses, Wild Waves’ stamina could shine.
Race Name: Betfred 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 3:35
First: Lake Victoria
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 11111-
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 85%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 119
TS: 110
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Desert Flower
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 1111-
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 117
TS: 118
Probability: Second Horse High
Analysis: Lake Victoria is unbeaten with elite OR/TS. Desert Flower is a formidable rival but may lack experience.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms further, Desert Flower’s speed could challenge.
Race Name: Tattersalls £40,000 EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 4:10
First: Twilight Star
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 3
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 66
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Little Havana
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: –
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: David Egan
Trainer: George Boughey
Trainer RTF% Form: 37%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Twilight Star has race experience and a strong TS. Little Havana is unraced but well-bred.
Scenario Analysis: If the debutants impress, Little Havana could upset.
Race Name: Tattersalls Online £40,000 EBF Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 4:45
First: Moonfall
Age: 2
Weight: 9-4
Form: 2
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: George Boughey
Trainer RTF% Form: 37%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 81
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Rising Power
Age: 2
Weight: 9-4
Form: –
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Moonfall has the highest TS (81) among runners with form. Rising Power is a wildcard for Appleby.
Scenario Analysis: If Rising Power is precocious, he could dominate.
Race Name: Nyetimber Handicap (Class 3)
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Newmarket
Time of Race: 5:20
First: Merchant
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 721-
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Tom Marquand
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 82
TS: 39
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Watching Stars
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 4413-4
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: William Buick
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 83
TS: 82
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Merchant is lightly raced and open to improvement. Watching Stars is consistent but lacks a recent win.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Watching Stars’ tactical speed may help.
Best Value for Money Selection (Newmarket, 04 May 2025)
Out of my analysis for Newmarket, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Qilin Queen
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 312- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 93
TS: 85
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Qilin Queen has strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Qilin Queen presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Newmarket – 04th May 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
13:45 – Betfred Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed)
- Falakeyah (85%)
- Qilin Queen (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
14:20 – Betfred Dahlia Stakes (Group 2)
- Cinderella’s Dream (82%)
- Running Lion (80%)
14:55 – Handicap (Class 2)
- Kihavah (80%)
- Align The Stars (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
15:35 – Betfred 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)
- Desert Flower (80%)
- Flight (70%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Falakeyah (13:45, Newmarket, 85%)
- Cinderella’s Dream (14:20, Newmarket, 82%)
- Kihavah (14:55, Newmarket, 80%)
- Desert Flower (15:35, Newmarket, 80%)
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Falakeyah (13:45, Newmarket)
- Cinderella’s Dream (14:20, Newmarket)
- Kihavah (14:55, Newmarket)
- Desert Flower (15:35, Newmarket)
Doubles
- Falakeyah + Cinderella’s Dream
- Falakeyah + Kihavah
- Falakeyah + Desert Flower
- Cinderella’s Dream + Kihavah
- Cinderella’s Dream + Desert Flower
- Kihavah + Desert Flower
Trebles
- Falakeyah + Cinderella’s Dream + Kihavah
- Falakeyah + Cinderella’s Dream + Desert Flower
- Falakeyah + Kihavah + Desert Flower
- Cinderella’s Dream + Kihavah + Desert Flower
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Falakeyah + Cinderella’s Dream + Kihavah + Desert Flower
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Flight (70%) –
- Highest Probability: Falakeyah (85%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Running Lion (80%) –
