Bet Smart & Win — Newmarket Race Preview
Friday 31 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jamie Spencer
- T: David Simcock
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: Fav (short)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Comes here off a commanding last-to-first win. Clear most likely winner. NP equals IP → value rated Fair, not Above Fair.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Tom Clover
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds: 2nd fav
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
In-and-out profile this year. IP > NP gives Below Fair pricing — market has him slightly too short.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Andi Brown
- Trip: 1m2f
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: Outsider
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Rated the outsider and looks up against it on all known form. Chance matches price.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: Short
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Twice runner-up and knocking hard on the door. Yard in top form. Logical favourite.
Details
- J: Dougie Costello
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 89%
- Odds: Single figures
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Already a winner. Top operation. Model says “fair, not cheap.”
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 7f
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: 1st three in market
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Impressive debut winner but now shoulders a 7lb penalty. Still a strong contender.
Details
- J: Jack Doughty
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: Shortish
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Improving and handles the trip. NP > IP = Above Fair. Model top pick and value.
Details
- J: J F Egan
- T: Michael Wigham
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: Mid-range
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent and often in the frame. Can easily hit the places.
Details
- J: Jamie Spencer
- T: Iain Jardine
- Trip: 5f
- Trainer RTF%: 35%
- Odds: Mid-range
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Course-and-distance credentials. Well enough treated to matter.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Michael Bell
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: Toward head of market
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Sets the form standard (Group 3 fourth here). Clear “one to beat”.
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: Single figures
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
High-class filly who keeps hitting the frame. Market about right.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: Each-way price
- Overround: 114%
Analysis
Unexposed and progressive. Dangerous improver with top connections.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: Short
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Unpenalised improver. NP > IP and high trainer trust. Above Fair. Serious chance to turn over the penalty horse.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 89%
- Odds: Evens-ish
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Carries a 7lb penalty for the win. IP > NP → Below Fair at current price.
Details
- J: Jamie Spencer
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 6f
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: Bigger price
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Reliable type but needs to jump forward to trouble the top two. Priced a shade short on our tissue (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: Single figs
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Comes here after a good fourth at Pontefract. Consistent, safest profile.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: Oliver Cole
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: Mid-range
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Reliable type with each-way credentials. Market about right.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: Each-way zone
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Capable of grabbing a place if things fall right tactically.
Details
- J: Alice Bond
- T: Martin Dunne
- Trip: 1m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: Fav
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Comes here on a roll and rightly heads the market. Fair, not a giveaway.
Details
- J: Toby Moore
- T: Dylan Cunha
- Trip: 1m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: Low/mid single figs
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent and reliable. Obvious each-way frame player.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 1m1f
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: Each-way
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Honest and arrives off good runs. Solid value to fill the places.
Analysis
Topweight with improving figures in a 5f Class 4 handicap. NP (26%) sits above IP (24%), the race Overround (109%) is within our target band, and the yard’s RTF% is acceptable. This is the clearest “run-that-wins” profile on the card. Back with confidence.