Bet Smart & Win — Newton Abbot Race Preview
Tuesday 28 October 2025 • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m5f122y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
A Pai De Nom is the clear standout with a C&D win and the highest normalized probability.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: David Pipe
- Trip: 2m5f122y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid form and represents a powerful yard.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Jamie Snowden
- Trip: 2m5f122y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Newcomer with a promising profile and is respected in the market.
Details
- J: Toby McCain-Mitchell
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m167y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Nap selection; strong value with NP above IP.
Details
- J: Chad Bament
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m167y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Co-second favourite with fair value.
Details
- J: Robbie David
- T: David Pipe
- Trip: 2m167y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Co-second favourite with fair value; solid place claims.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m75y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Marginal favourite with perfectly fair value assessment.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m75y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Very close in the market; slight value edge.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m75y
- Trainer RTF%: 68%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Classy yard; just a shade below fair on market.
Details
- J: Callum Pritchard
- T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White
- Trip: 2m5f122y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Top pick; positive value with NP above IP.
Details
- J: Chad Bament
- T: Jeremy Scott
- Trip: 2m5f122y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Narrowly below fair on market; still respected.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Emma Lavelle
- Trip: 2m5f122y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Solid case for the frame; market and model aligned.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 2m4f216y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Clear value profile with NP > IP.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 2m4f216y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Closely matched on value; reliable each-way angle.
Details
- J: Lorcan Williams
- T: Jeremy Scott
- Trip: 2m4f216y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Market prefers Buckna; still in the frame on figures.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m167y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Justified favourite with fair value.
Details
- J: Bryan Carver
- T: Harry Fry
- Trip: 2m167y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Main danger; slightly below fair value.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m167y
- Trainer RTF%: 68%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Well-bred; slightly below fair at current quotes but respected.
Analysis
Well-handicapped on best form, top jockey claim, strongest value profile of the meeting (NP > IP), ideal race conditions.