Bet Smart & Win — Nottingham Race Preview
Wednesday 29 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Mikkel Mortensen
- T: Charlie Fellowes
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
NP>IP indicates Above Fair value; solid each-way shape on soft.
Details
- J: David Nolan
- T: Ann Duffield
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Fair value profile with NP≈IP; consistent and reliable.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: Heather Main
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Favourite but IP>NP marks this as Below Fair on our model.
Details
- J: Alistair Rawlinson
- T: Roy Bowring
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Form pick but Below Fair pricing on our NP vs IP.
Details
- J: Zak Wheatley
- T: Declan Carroll
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Trainer angle; Fair pricing keeps him in calculations.
Details
- J: Paula Muir
- T: Wilf Storey
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Live outsider; Fair value with hot RTF.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Haggas
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Slightly Below Fair at current quotes despite strong profile.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Major player but priced Below Fair versus our NP baseline.
Details
- J: Kevin Stott
- T: Jane Chapple-Hyam
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Best value angle of the race with NP>IP.
Details
- J: Shane Gray
- T: K R Burke
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Clear form pick but Below Fair at present quotes.
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds
- T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Fair value alternative; should be competitive.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid Fair value; capable of hitting the frame.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Owen Burrows
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Form choice but Below Fair on our line.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Perfectly Fair; key danger on soft.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: William Knight
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Fairly priced; could sneak a place.
Details
- J: Ray Dawson
- T: Charlie Fellowes
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Progressive 3yo; Fair profile in a trappy 1m6f handicap.
Details
- J: Rowan Scott
- T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Market leader but Below Fair; potential lay vs model.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby
- T: Jonathan Portman
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Best value in the race; NP>IP with recent winning form.
Details
- J: Mr Eireann Cagney
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
In-form and Fair value; should go well in conditions.
Details
- J: Mr Henry Callan
- T: Lemos De Souza
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Favourite on recent form but Below Fair on our metrics.
Details
- J: Mr Paul Hainey
- T: Ryan Potter
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds: (forecast, not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Big price player; Fair value, place chance at best.
Analysis
Progressive 3yo with ideal set-up at 1m6f on soft; Fair value in a competitive handicap.