Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: Pricedup.Bet The Home Of Value Handicap

Race Distance: 6f18y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 2:08
First: Calafrio
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 5228-2 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: David Probert
Trainer: Philip Kirby
Trainer RTF% Form: 30%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 55
TS: 56
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Papa Don’t Preach
Age: 6
Weight: 9-8
Form: 563223 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Alistair Rawlinson
Trainer: Kevin Frost
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 57
TS: 52
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Calafrio has shown strong recent form with consistent finishes and benefits from a lower weight. Papa Don’t Preach is a seasoned performer but may struggle to match Calafrio’s speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Papa Don’t Preach could close the gap due to stamina, but Calafrio remains the favorite on current conditions.

Race Name: Pricedup Daily Sports Boosts Handicap

Race Distance: 6f18y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 2:43
First: City Of Strangers
Age: 3
Weight: 9-12
Form: 45-614 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Tom Eaves
Trainer: Ivan Furtado
Trainer RTF% Form: 28%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 61
TS: 63
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Rumba Bay
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: -61316 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: David Evans
Trainer RTF% Form: 13%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 58
TS: 49
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: City Of Strangers has the highest OR and TS, making it the clear favorite. Rumba Bay is consistent but lacks the top-end speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the track becomes softer, Rumba Bay’s stamina may come into play, but City Of Strangers should still dominate.

Race Name: Pricedup.Bet Bloggers Boosted Double Handicap

Race Distance: 1m6f
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 3:18
First: Expressionless
Age: 5
Weight: 9-4
Form: 1287-3 (Strong recent form)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Ray Dawson
Trainer: Dylan Cunha
Trainer RTF% Form: 53%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 73
TS: 83
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Maritime Lady
Age: 4
Weight: 9-8
Form: 36141- (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Harry Davies
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 77
TS: 79
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Expressionless has the highest TS and strong recent form. Maritime Lady is consistent but may lack the finishing kick.
Scenario Analysis: If the race becomes tactical, Maritime Lady could challenge, but Expressionless has the edge on speed.

Race Name: British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap

Race Distance: 1m75y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 3:53
First: Noisy Jazz
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 1635-7 (Strong recent form)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Harry Davies
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 83
TS: 86
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Under The Twilight
Age: 7
Weight: 9-5
Form: 6968-3 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: David Probert
Trainer: Michael Blake
Trainer RTF% Form: 25%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 82
TS: 89
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Noisy Jazz has the highest OR and strong form. Under The Twilight is consistent but age may be a factor.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Under The Twilight’s experience could prove vital, but Noisy Jazz remains the pick.

Race Name: British Stallion Studs EBF Nottinghamshire Oaks Stakes

Race Distance: 1m2f50y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 4:28
First: Francophone
Age: 4
Weight: 9-2
Form: 21844- (Strong recent form)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Joe Fanning
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 100
TS: 95
Probability: First Horse Very High

Second: Ambiente Amigo
Age: 4
Weight: 9-2
Form: 3476-2 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Harry Davies
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 97
TS: 100
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Francophone has the highest OR and strong form. Ambiente Amigo is consistent but may lack the class.
Scenario Analysis: If the race becomes tactical, Ambiente Amigo could challenge, but Francophone’s class should prevail.

Race Name: Racing Blogger Win To Neil Fillies’ Handicap

Race Distance: 1m75y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 5:03
First: Bay Of Dreams
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 30-612 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Trainer: James Ferguson
Trainer RTF% Form: 78%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 61
TS: 32
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Al Waseela
Age: 3
Weight: 9-9
Form: 2161-4 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Trevor Whelan
Trainer: Ollie Sangster
Trainer RTF% Form: 58%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 67
TS: 67
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Bay Of Dreams has strong recent form and a high RTF%. Al Waseela is consistent but may lack the upside.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Al Waseela could challenge, but Bay Of Dreams has the better form.

Race Name: Download The Pricedup App Handicap

Race Distance: 1m2f50y
Racecourse: Nottingham
Time of Race: 5:38
First: Beach Point
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 4022-2 (Strong recent form)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: William Knight
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 68
TS: 71
Probability: First Horse High

Second: Double Red
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 8283-1 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Trevor Whelan
Trainer: Henry Candy
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 65
TS: 62
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Beach Point has the highest OR and strong recent form. Double Red is consistent but may lack the finishing speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the race becomes tactical, Double Red could challenge, but Beach Point remains the favorite.

Best Value for Money Horse at Nottingham (29th April 2025)

Out of my analysis for Nottingham, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Calafrio
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 5228-2 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 55
TS: 56
RTF’s: Ran To Form

Form and Improvement: Calafrio has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making it a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit it, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.

In summary, Calafrio presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Nottingham – 29th April 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

14:08 Nottingham – PricedUp.Bet The Home Of Value Handicap

• Calafrio (Probability: 85%)
• Papa Don’t Preach (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]

14:43 Nottingham – PricedUp Daily Sports Boosts Handicap

• City Of Strangers (Probability: 80%)
• Monticristo Boy (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

15:18 Nottingham – PricedUp.Bet Bloggers Boosted Double Handicap

• Expressionless (Probability: 85%)
• Maritime Lady (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

15:53 Nottingham – British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap

• Under The Twilight (Probability: 82%)
• Bint Al Daar (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

16:28 Nottingham – British Stallion Studs EBF Nottinghamshire Oaks Stakes

• Francophone (Probability: 80%)
• Ambiente Amigo (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

17:03 Nottingham – Racing Blogger Win To Neil Fillies’ Handicap

• Bay Of Dreams (Probability: 80%)
• Kebili (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

17:38 Nottingham – Download The PricedUp App Handicap

• Beach Point (Probability: 85%)
• Bobacious (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Calafrio – 14:08 Nottingham (85%)
2. Expressionless – 15:18 Nottingham (85%)
3. Under The Twilight – 15:53 Nottingham (82%)
4. Beach Point – 17:38 Nottingham (85%)

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Calafrio – 14:08 Nottingham
2. Expressionless – 15:18 Nottingham
3. Under The Twilight – 15:53 Nottingham
4. Beach Point – 17:38 Nottingham

Doubles

1. Calafrio + Expressionless
2. Calafrio + Under The Twilight
3. Calafrio + Beach Point
4. Expressionless + Under The Twilight
5. Expressionless + Beach Point
6. Under The Twilight + Beach Point

Trebles

1. Calafrio + Expressionless + Under The Twilight
2. Calafrio + Expressionless + Beach Point
3. Calafrio + Under The Twilight + Beach Point
4. Expressionless + Under The Twilight + Beach Point

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Calafrio + Expressionless + Under The Twilight + Beach Point

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Expressionless (85%) –
• Highest Probability: Calafrio (85%) –
• Alternative if Needed: City Of Strangers (80%) –