Bet Smart & Win — Perth Race Preview
Tuesday 21 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Danny Gilligan
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m47y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Positive trainer comments and competitive profile; Above Fair on NP vs IP.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m47y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong form claims and high yard RTF; value holds Above Fair.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m47y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Solid connections; numbers rate Above Fair.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m4f35y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Course profile positive; Above Fair vs market.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Iain Jardine
- Trip: 2m4f35y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Reliable yard/jockey; NP > IP indicates Above Fair.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m4f35y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Solid shape on figures; Above Fair on our tissue.
Details
- J: William Maggs
- T: Iain Jardine
- Trip: 2m47y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Clear top on NP; Above Fair with useful claim.
Details
- J: Alan Doyle
- T: Andrew Hamilton
- Trip: 2m47y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Each-way claims; Above Fair margin.
Details
- J: Callum Bewley
- T: Daragh Bourke
- Trip: 2m47y
- Trainer RTF%: 83%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Competitive mark; Above Fair on our numbers.
Details
- J: Jonathan Burke
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m4f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Strong favourite profile; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m4f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Credible danger; margins still Above Fair.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m4f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Respected; Above Fair by the model.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: L J Morgan
- Trip: 2m7f180y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Confident pick; Above Fair and in form.
Details
- J: Bruce Lynn
- T: N W Alexander
- Trip: 2m7f180y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Main danger; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Alan Doyle
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m7f180y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent type; model shows Above Fair.
Details
- J: Conner McCann
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m4f35y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Well-handicapped angle; Above Fair rating.
Details
- J: William Maggs
- T: Adam Nicol
- Trip: 2m4f35y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
In good heart; Above Fair margin.
Details
- J: Jamie Hamilton
- T: William Young Jnr
- Trip: 2m4f35y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong recent form; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m4f35y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Above Fair value with top booking; strong chance to score.
Details
- J: Patrick Wadge
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m4f35y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent and progressive; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m4f35y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Respected from a powerful yard; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
- Trip: 2m7f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 63%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Recent emphatic C&D win; Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Sophie Leech
- Trip: 2m7f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Clear danger on figures; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Craig Nichol
- T: Ewan Whillans
- Trip: 2m7f207y
- Trainer RTF%: 13%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent profile; Above Fair on model.
Analysis
Strong Above Fair assessment with top jockey booking and ideal 2m4f conditions on Good To Soft.