Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

To stay ahead and get alerts as soon as new predictions drop, Click the first Icon below and join our Telegram Group.

• Telegram
• X
• Facebook

Race Name: Welcome To The Perth Festival Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 2m4f35y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 1:48
First: Kevin’s Pride
Age: 6
Weight: 11-6
Form: 1222 Consistent performances
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: J J Slevin
Trainer: John C McConnell
Trainer RTF% Form: 35%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 119
TS: 90
Probability: Very High

Second: Mary Stanford
Age: 6
Weight: 10-13
Form: 1-2 Improving form
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Patrick Wadge
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 103
Probability: High
Analysis: Kevin’s Pride stands out with a strong OR of 119 and consistent recent form (1222), showing reliability in similar conditions. His TS of 90 and jockey J J Slevin’s experience add to his edge. The trainer’s 35% RTF% indicates solid preparation. Mary Stanford, with a TS of 103 and a win in her last outing, is a promising contender, particularly as she steps up in distance. Her trainer, Lucinda Russell, has a 36% RTF%, suggesting she’s in good shape. The Good to Soft going suits both horses, but Kevin’s Pride has a slight edge due to his higher OR and form consistency. Other contenders like Frisby and Highland Fashion lack the same level of recent performance metrics.
Scenario Analysis: If the going turns softer, Mary Stanford may close the gap due to her proven stamina. On firmer ground, Kevin’s Pride’s speed advantage could become more pronounced.

Race Name: GS Group Balnakeilly Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 2m4f20y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 2:18
First: Rattling Road
Age: 8
Weight: 11-0
Form: 4-4112 Strong recent wins
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Jack Power
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 120
TS: 117
Probability: High

Second: Bashers Reflection
Age: 8
Weight: 10-13
Form: 633223 Consistent placer
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Jack Quinlan
Trainer: Ben Case
Trainer RTF% Form: 17%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 119
TS: 124
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Rattling Road’s recent form (4-4112) and OR of 120 make him a strong candidate. His TS of 117 and Lucinda Russell’s 36% RTF% suggest he’s well-prepared for this chase. The Good to Soft going aligns with his past successes. Bashers Reflection, with a TS of 124 and consistent placings (633223), is a reliable pick for second. Despite a lower OR of 119 and a trainer RTF% of 17%, his stamina suits the distance. Dare To Shout and Denemethy are notable but lack the same recent consistency.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground could favor Bashers Reflection’s stamina, while firmer conditions might enhance Rattling Road’s speed.

Race Name: British EBF Gold Castle “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race)
Race Distance: 2m7f207y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 2:48
First: Horaces Pearl
Age: 7
Weight: 11-2
Form: 11-115 Strong early season
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Connor Brace
Trainer: Fergal O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 78%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 135
TS: 129
Probability: Very High

Second: Ballygunner Castle
Age: 6
Weight: 11-2
Form: -11423 Consistent performer
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Rachael Blackmore
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 138
TS: 137
Probability: High
Analysis: Horaces Pearl’s OR of 135, TS of 129, and form (11-115) make him a top pick. Fergal O’Brien’s 78% RTF% indicates excellent preparation. The Good to Soft going suits his running style. Ballygunner Castle, with an OR of 138 and TS of 137, is a strong second choice, backed by W P Mullins’ 57% RTF% and consistent form (-11423). His jockey, Rachael Blackmore, adds reliability. Mister Meggit and Kiss Will are threats but lack the same proven stamina at this distance.
Scenario Analysis: Heavy rain could favor Ballygunner Castle’s superior stamina, while drier conditions benefit Horaces Pearl’s speed.

Race Name: Quilter Cheviot Fair Maid Of Perth Mares’ Chase (Listed Race)
Race Distance: 2m7f180y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 3:18
First: Fun Fun Fun
Age: 7
Weight: 11-2
Form: 6-P141 Recent win
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 149
TS: 116
Probability: Very High

Second: El Elefante
Age: 7
Weight: 11-0
Form: 13611F Recent fall but strong form
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Patrick Wadge
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 136
TS: 142
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Fun Fun Fun’s OR of 149 and recent win (6-P141) make her the standout, with Paul Townend and W P Mullins’ 57% RTF% adding confidence. The Good to Soft going is ideal. El Elefante, despite a recent fall, has a strong OR of 136, TS of 142, and form (13611F). Lucinda Russell’s 36% RTF% supports her chances. Paggane and Coco Mademoiselle lack the same class.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground could suit El Elefante’s stamina, while Fun Fun Fun excels on Good to Soft.

Race Name: Phil Nelson Capercaillie Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 2m
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 3:48
First: Etalon
Age: 8
Weight: 11-12
Form: 95U3P4 Recent placer
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Harry Skelton
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 49%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 132
TS: 112
Probability: High

Second: Vocito
Age: 7
Weight: 11-0
Form: 115131 Recent win
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Sean Bowen
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 120
TS: 125
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Etalon’s OR of 132 and Harry Skelton’s expertise give him the edge, despite a mixed form (95U3P4). Dan Skelton’s 49% RTF% suggests readiness. Vocito’s recent win (115131), TS of 125, and Olly Murphy’s 36% RTF% make him a solid second. The Good to Soft going suits both. Pay The Piper and Parisencore are close but lack recent wins.
Scenario Analysis: Firmer ground could favor Vocito’s speed, while softer conditions suit Etalon’s experience.

Race Name: Big Boppers 50th Bash Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m4f35y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 4:22
First: Hay Meadow
Age: 5
Weight: 11-5
Form: -10451 Recent win
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Conner McCann
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 111
TS: 75
Probability: High

Second: Feach Amach
Age: 5
Weight: 10-3
Form: 6-0P41 Recent win
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Joshua Thompson
Trainer: Adam Nicol
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 95
TS: 102
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Hay Meadow’s recent win (-10451), OR of 111, and Lucinda Russell’s 36% RTF% make her a strong pick. The Good to Soft going is favorable. Feach Amach’s recent win (6-0P41), TS of 102, and Adam Nicol’s 67% RTF% suggest she’s in form, despite a lower OR of 95. Jumping Susie and Parisian Fashion are contenders but lack recent momentum.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground could boost Feach Amach’s chances, while Hay Meadow thrives on Good to Soft.

Race Name: Bedmax Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Div I)
Race Distance: 2m7f207y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 5:00
First: Henrysbrotherjack
Age: 6
Weight: 11-8
Form: 0-0151 Recent win
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Mr James King
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 96
TS: 65
Probability: High

Second: Shuil Ceoil
Age: 7
Weight: 12-0
Form: 555412 Recent placer
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Mr S Connor
Trainer: Neil Mulholland
Trainer RTF% Form: 41%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 102
TS: 95
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Henrysbrotherjack’s recent win (0-0151) and Olly Murphy’s 36% RTF% make him a top pick, despite a lower TS of 65. The Good to Soft going suits his style. Shuil Ceoil’s OR of 102, TS of 95, and form (555412) make him a reliable second, backed by Neil Mulholland’s 41% RTF%. Bollin Neil and Wee Alki lack the same recent form.
Scenario Analysis: Softer conditions could favor Shuil Ceoil’s stamina, while Henrysbrotherjack prefers Good to Soft.

Race Name: Bedmax Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Div II)
Race Distance: 2m7f207y
Racecourse: Perth
Time of Race: 5:32
First: Happy Index
Age: 7
Weight: 11-8
Form: 5-2112 Strong recent form
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Mr James King
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 96
TS: 82
Probability: Very High

Second: Follow Charlie
Age: 6
Weight: 11-9
Form: 386533 Consistent placer
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Mr Joe Wright
Trainer: R Mike Smith
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 97
TS: 79
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Happy Index’s form (5-2112), OR of 96, and Olly Murphy’s 36% RTF% make her a standout. The Good to Soft going is ideal. Follow Charlie’s consistent placings (386533), OR of 97, and R Mike Smith’s 50% RTF% make him a solid second. Maura Jeanne and Rascal lack the same consistency.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground could suit Follow Charlie’s stamina, while Happy Index excels on Good to Soft.

Best Value for Money Horse at Perth on 23rd April 2025
Out of my analysis for Perth, Horaces Pearl shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s.
Age: 7
Weight: 11-2
Form: 11-115 Strong early season
OR: 135
TS: 129
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Horaces Pearl has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making him a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The Good to Soft conditions on the day are expected to suit him, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary: Horaces Pearl presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high performance metrics. His OR of 135 and TS of 129 are among the highest in the field, and his trainer’s 78% RTF% indicates peak condition. The combination of his form, suitability to the 2m7f207y distance, and jockey Connor Brace’s experience makes him a standout, regardless of betting odds.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Perth – 23rd April 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

Welcome To The Perth Festival Maiden Hurdle (13:48)

• Kevin’s Pride (85%)
• Highland Fashion (75%) [Flagged: <80%]

GS Group Balnakeilly Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (14:18)

• Denemethy (80%)
• Bois Guillbert (78%) [Flagged: <80%]

Phil Nelson Capercaillie Handicap Chase (15:48)

• Etalon (82%)
• Vocito (80%)

Big Boppers 50th Bash Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (16:22)

• Hay Meadow (88%)
• Wee Alki (70%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Kevin’s Pride (13:48, Perth, 85%)
2. Denemethy (14:18, Perth, 80%)
3. Etalon (15:48, Perth, 82%)
4. Hay Meadow (16:22, Perth, 88%)

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Kevin’s Pride (13:48, Perth)
2. Denemethy (14:18, Perth)
3. Etalon (15:48, Perth)
4. Hay Meadow (16:22, Perth)

Doubles

1. Kevin’s Pride + Denemethy
2. Kevin’s Pride + Etalon
3. Kevin’s Pride + Hay Meadow
4. Denemethy + Etalon
5. Denemethy + Hay Meadow
6. Etalon + Hay Meadow

Trebles

1. Kevin’s Pride + Denemethy + Etalon
2. Kevin’s Pride + Denemethy + Hay Meadow
3. Kevin’s Pride + Etalon + Hay Meadow
4. Denemethy + Etalon + Hay Meadow

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Kevin’s Pride + Denemethy + Etalon + Hay Meadow

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Etalon (82%) –
• Highest Probability: Hay Meadow (88%) –
• Alternative if Needed: Vocito (80%) –