Bet Smart & Win — Plumpton Race Preview
Monday 17 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Rex Dingle
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 2m 4f 116y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Unpenalised for a recent Fontwell win and brings the strongest recent form. Step up in trip on good ground looks ideal. SecEff-J sample is limited but positive; likely to press the lead in a small field. Logical winner, but short odds leave him Below Fair on value.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 4f 116y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Powerful yard and now over hurdles after a useful Flat win. Ground and trip are slight unknowns but profile is progressive. SecEff-J unproven in this code; likely to be held up and delivered late. Fair value as main danger to the favourite.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 2m 4f 116y
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Course-experienced hurdler who often stays on late rather than quickens. SecEff-J suggests he keeps finding but lacks a decisive turn of foot. Reliable jumper and should be involved, yet priced slightly under Fair on the model.
Details
- J: Mr A P Ryan
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 2m 4f 116y
- Trainer RTF%: 27%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent prior to a fall, with multiple seconds at this trip. SecEff-J shows strong finishing efforts and prominent tactics suit Plumpton’s layout. If confidence is intact after the fall, she holds leading claims, though current odds shade Below Fair.
Details
- J: Mr P W Mullins
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 4f 116y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
From a top yard with winning form already in the book. Penalised but still well treated based on early marks. SecEff-J is solid for this trip; stalk-and-pounce style should be effective. Fair value and an obvious winning contender.
Details
- J: Miss Gina Andrews
- T: Chris Gordon
- Trip: 2m 4f 116y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Unexposed on handicap debut and could improve sharply. SecEff-J is hard to peg but last run has worked out well. Likely to be ridden positively. Model rates him Above Fair on current prices, giving each-way appeal where terms allow.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 219y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Point winner with stamina and scope who has met smart types already. SecEff-J in chases is promising: smooth traveller with accurate jumping. Will likely be ridden with patience. Likeliest winner on balance, but slightly short on the model.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: Joe Tizzard
- Trip: 2m 219y
- Trainer RTF%: 78%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Won three of four last season and is potentially well treated for this campaign. SecEff-J points to a strong front-running profile that can be hard to reel in here. Fitness assured; sets the standard and rates Fair on value.
Details
- J: Freddie Gordon
- T: Chris Gordon
- Trip: 2m 219y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Course-and-distance winner who is dangerously well handicapped on old form. SecEff-J confirms he finishes strongly at Plumpton. With a mid-division run likely, he shapes as a solid each-way alternative at roughly Fair prices.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m 4f 116y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
On an upward curve under both codes and comes here off a career-best effort. SecEff-J is excellent, showing a strong finishing kick last time. Will likely be held up off a solid pace and delivered late. Fair value in a deep Class 2.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m 4f 116y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Lightly raced and open to more improvement than most. Has already shown form on good ground and stays this trip. SecEff-J profile is progressive, but the market has reacted and current odds sit Below Fair. Major player despite the squeeze on value.
Details
- J: Callum Pritchard
- T: Tom Symonds
- Trip: 2m 4f 116y
- Trainer RTF%: 83%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Arrives in excellent form and won with something in hand last time. A 6lb rise may not be enough to halt progress if he handles the track. SecEff-J strong and prominent run style suits. Model finds a small but genuine value edge (Above Fair).
Details
- J: Mr Daniel Williams
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 3m 217y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Impressive recent winner at Kempton and escapes a penalty here, so stands out on form. SecEff-J last time was dominant, making all and finding more. Slight question over this sharper track at 3m+, but clearly the one to beat even at Below Fair odds.
Details
- J: Tristan Durrell
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 3m 217y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Early hurdles runs promise more to come and this yard excels with improvers at staying trips. SecEff-J is not fully exposed but the form of his debut points to upside. Fair value as the obvious threat to the favourite.
Details
- J: Freddie Gordon
- T: Chris Gordon
- Trip: 3m 217y
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Stays well and has experience at similar trips, but needs a clear career-best to trouble the principals. SecEff-J suggests honest but one-paced finishing. Below Fair on the book, more of a place-only consideration.
Details
- J: Charlie Maggs
- T: David Dennis
- Trip: 3m 1f 157y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Thriving chaser who won last time and is effectively only slightly higher in the weights. Proven at this demanding trip. SecEff-J strong, showing grit and staying power; likely to force the pace. Most likely winner, but market has him a touch short.
Details
- J: Jack Tudor
- T: Christian Williams
- Trip: 3m 1f 157y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Ran well for a long way in stronger company last time and now drops in grade. SecEff-J can vary, but peak efforts make him competitive in this small field. Likely to be held up. Fair value as the main alternative to the favourite.
Details
- J: Rex Dingle
- T: Anthony Honeyball
- Trip: 3m 1f 157y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 105%
Analysis
Well treated now 4lb below his last winning mark and drops in grade. SecEff-J has dipped recently but his stamina for this trip is assured. Likely to race prominently. Fair value as a rebound candidate.
Details
- J: James Bowen
- T: Warren Greatrex
- Trip: 1m 7f 195y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Looked a natural over hurdles when winning on debut and still has plenty more in the locker off this mark. SecEff-J very strong; sharp turn of foot should be accentuated around Plumpton. Model’s most likely winner, though current quotes come up just Below Fair.
Details
- J: Luke Scott
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 1m 7f 195y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent and coming here off a career-best. Slight question over the drop back in trip on this sharp track, but SecEff-J is solid and he runs honestly to the line. Above Fair on the model, making him a strong each-way option.
Details
- J: Kielan Woods
- T: Alex Hales
- Trip: 1m 7f 195y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (check latest market)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent and comes here after a good second in a race that has since worked out well. SecEff-J shows strong late gains and a handy midfield-to-prominent style. However, market has tightened and he now rates Below Fair.
Analysis
Consistent and firmly on the upgrade, Goblet Of Fire produced a powerful SecEff-J finish last time and now tackles a suitable 2m4f Class 2 on good ground. The Henderson–Bowen combination is potent in this sphere and his jumping is reliably efficient. This is our Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence where the price holds around Fair or better.