Plumpton — Sun 21/09/25
Bet Smart & Win
Races: 6 (1–6)
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Our AI breaks down each bookmaker’s overround to uncover true fair value and identify Above-Fair (AF) plays.
How we pick winners
- Overround: 100–115% (green)
- Runners: 8–12
- Value: AF only when NP > IP
- Class: 5, 4 or 3
- Jockey: on strict whitelist
- NP: ≥ 27 and IP: below NP
1
Race 1
Overround: 111%
Class: 5
Runners: 11
Good to firm — good in places
#1 The Dark Edge (Form: 4712-F6p)
J: Daire McConville
NP: 27%
IP: 23%
17/20
85%
Details
Why we like this
- Course winner; strong spring hurdle form (Warwick win; Huntingdon 2nd).
- Chase fall is a query, but back to hurdles + class drop suits.
#3 Fine By Me (Form: 8-22748tp1)
J: Toby McCain-Mitchell
NP: 22%
IP: 18%
16/20
80%
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent; first-time cheekpieces sharpened him up.
- Trip/conditions fine after solid Newton Abbot run.
#7 Cinderello (Form: 90-4145)
J: Adam Wedge
NP: 18%
IP: 20%
14/20
70%
Details
Why we like this
- Uttoxeter win beat next-time winners; slight dip last time forgiven.
- Drop in class + conditions suit; each-way angle.
2
Race 2
Overround: 109%
Class: 5
Runners: 10
Good to firm — good in places
#7 Jet Patrol (Form: 2486168ht1)
J: Alex Chadwick
NP: 31%
IP: 28%
17/20
85%
Details
Why we like this
- Stable-debut win showed a clear step forward.
- Forgive recent odds-on miss; better ground helps.
#5 Lady Caro (Form: 251P-37)
J: Ben Jones
NP: 25%
IP: 22%
16/20
80%
Details
Why we like this
- Course form strong; workable mark in Class 5.
- Ben Jones a positive booking.
#2 G'Day Aussie (Form: -1126412t)
J: Lee Edwards
NP: 18%
IP: 20%
14/20
70%
Details
Why we like this
- Solid handicap profile; competitive at the mark.
- Step up in trip can suit the run style.
3
Race 3
Overround: 105%
Class: 4
Runners: 5
Good to firm — good in places
#1 Kajikia (Form: 103-5)
J: Harry Cobden
NP: 65%
IP: 62%
18/20
90%
Details
Why we like this
- Clear standout on form/yard; small field reduces variables.
- Needs only a clean round to oblige.
#3 Whenthemusicstops (Form: P-44)
J: Luke Scott
NP: 20%
IP: 19%
14/20
70%
Details
Why we like this
- Point-to-point glimpses; can step forward on hurdles debut.
- Stable form a mild concern; place chance.
#4 Yarborough (Form: 454)
J: Caoilin Quinn
NP: 10%
IP: 12%
12/20
60%
Details
Why we like this
- Experience helps in a weak maiden.
- Could nick a place if fav underperforms.
4
Race 4
Overround: 108%
Class: 3
Runners: 5
Good to firm — good in places
#1 Howth (Form: 113116t)
J: Stan Sheppard
NP: 35%
IP: 32%
17/20
85%
Details
Why we like this
- Recent wins; reliable at Class 3.
- Profiles as the one to beat.
#2 Aucunrisque (Form: 023-579)
J: Freddie Gordon
NP: 28%
IP: 31%
15/20
75%
Details
Why we like this
- Well handicapped; ran well in this last year.
- Track/ground fine; danger if bouncing back.
#4 Nap Hand (Form: 325-125)
J: Tom Cannon
NP: 22%
IP: 25%
14/20
70%
Details
Why we like this
- Weighted to compete; repeat of best puts him in the mix.
5
Race 5
Overround: 112%
Class: 5
Runners: 8
Good to firm — good in places
#6 No Guarantee (Form: 9-34235tv)
J: Freddie Mitchell
NP: 24%
IP: 21%
16/20
80%
Details
Why we like this
- Consistent in handicaps; due a win.
- Trip/conditions ideal for profile.
#7 Eliza Dolittle (Form: 31661-7)
J: Tabitha Worsley
NP: 22%
IP: 20%
15/20
75%
Details
Why we like this
- Course winner; can bounce back at Plumpton.
#8 Square du Roule (Form: -342285)
J: James Davies
NP: 18%
IP: 20%
14/20
70%
Details
Why we like this
- Often threatens; excusable last run; each-way value.
6
Race 6
Overround: 106%
Class: 5
Runners: 5
Good to firm — good in places
#3 Masked Mistress (Form: 314)
J: Harry Cobden
NP: 45%
IP: 44%
18/20
90%
Details
Why we like this
- Big Uttoxeter win; penalty manageable.
- Extra yardage looks a plus; top jockey booked.
#5 Nelrose (Form: 344t)
J: Jonathan Burke
NP: 35%
IP: 36%
16/20
80%
Details
Why we like this
- Solid bumper form; strong yard; main danger to fav.
#2 Arms Park (Form: Unraced)
J: Adam Wedge
NP: 12%
IP: 11%
12/20
60%
Details
Why we like this
- Capable stable; could outrun odds on debut.
NAP
Plumpton — NAP
Overround: 106%
Class: 5
Runners: 5
Good to firm — good in places
#3 Masked Mistress (Form: 314)
J: Harry Cobden
NP: 45%
IP: 44%
19/20
95%
Details
Why we like this
- Strong improvement + convincing Uttoxeter win; penalty manageable.
- Extra distance ideal; top jockey booking aligns with model edge.