Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Stanley Asphalt Hunters Chase for the Bishopscourt Cup
Race Distance: 2m4f55y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 3:40
First: Fountain House
Age: 7
Weight: 12-2
Form: 114111 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Ian John McCarthy
Trainer: Mr E Mahon
Trainer RTF% Form: 100%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 122
TS: 103
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Eyes Off Annie
Age: 7
Weight: 11-9
Form: /11-21 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Ian John McCarthy
Trainer: Miss M O’Sullivan
Trainer RTF% Form: 100%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 116
TS: 70
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Fountain House has been in exceptional form, winning four of his last five starts. His consistency and high OR make him the standout pick. Eyes Off Annie has shown promise but may lack the stamina to challenge Fountain House.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens further, Fountain House’s stamina will be even more advantageous. Eyes Off Annie could improve if the pace is slow.
Race Name: Event Power Champion Hunters Chase
Race Distance: 3m160y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 4:15
First: Its On The Line
Age: 8
Weight: 12-0
Form: 11-232 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Derek O’Connor
Trainer: Emmet Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 144
TS: 126
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Willitgoahead
Age: 7
Weight: 12-0
Form: 112130 (Strong recent form)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mr H C Swan
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 138
TS: 123
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Its On The Line has a superior OR and TS, making him the clear favorite. Willitgoahead is a strong contender but may struggle to match the favorite’s class.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms up, Its On The Line’s speed will be even more decisive. Willitgoahead could benefit from a tactical ride.
Race Name: Hanlon Concrete Irish EBF Glencarraig Lady Francis Flood Mares Chase
Race Distance: 2m4f55y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 4:50
First: Dinoblue
Age: 8
Weight: 11-7
Form: 3-2411 (Strong recent form)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mark Walsh
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 170
TS: 156
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Allegorie De Vassy
Age: 8
Weight: 11-1
Form: 4-412F (Inconsistent but talented)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 168
TS: 144
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Dinoblue’s superior OR and TS make her the clear favorite. Allegorie De Vassy has the class but needs to overcome inconsistency.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Dinoblue’s stamina will be key. Allegorie De Vassy could challenge if the pace is slow.
Race Name: QuinnBet Novice Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m4f55y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 5:25
First: Nara
Age: 5
Weight: 11-5
Form: 3-F121 (Improving form)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mark Walsh
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Trainer RTF% Form: 34%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 141
TS: 123
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Theatre Native
Age: 7
Weight: 11-2
Form: 9-3221 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Rachael Blackmore
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Trainer RTF% Form: 34%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 148
TS: 126
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Nara is improving rapidly and has a strong TS. Theatre Native is consistent but may lack the upside of Nara.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms up, Nara’s speed will be decisive. Theatre Native could benefit from a strong pace.
Race Name: Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m4f140y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 6:05
First: The Yellow Clay
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: -11112 (Exceptional consistency)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Sam Ewing
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 159
TS: 146
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Final Demand
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: 1-113 (Progressive form)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 157
TS: 142
Probability: Second Horse High
Analysis: The Yellow Clay boasts superior recent form and the highest OR in the field. Final Demand is the main danger but may need to improve to match the favorite’s cruising speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground dries out, The Yellow Clay’s tactical speed becomes even more potent. Final Demand would prefer genuinely soft ground to showcase his stamina edge.
Race Name: Boodles Champion Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m45y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 6:40
First: Constitution Hill
Age: 8
Weight: 11-12
Form: 1-11FF (Dominant when completing)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: James Bowen
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Trainer RTF% Form: 41%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 174
TS: 153
Probability: First Horse Outstanding
Second: State Man
Age: 8
Weight: 11-12
Form: 1-231F (Consistent at top level)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 170
TS: 133
Probability: Second Horse High
Analysis: Constitution Hill remains the benchmark hurdler despite recent mishaps. State Man is a worthy adversary but has consistently fallen short against the selection.
Scenario Analysis: Any significant rain would enhance State Man’s chances, while Constitution Hill’s brilliance shines on better ground. The Mullins runner needs to force the pace to test the favorite’s stamina.
Race Name: Uniquely Novice Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m45y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 7:10
First: Runcok
Age: 5
Weight: 11-12
Form: 0-3515 (Progressive profile)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Improving
OR: 139
TS: 108
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Naturally Nimble
Age: 4
Weight: 11-6
Form: 714F (Talented but inconsistent)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: J J Slevin
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 54%
RTF’s: Needs To Improve
OR: 131
TS: 115
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Runcok represents the powerful Mullins yard and has shown steady progression. Naturally Nimble possesses raw talent but needs to iron out jumping issues.
Scenario Analysis: Softening ground would suit Naturally Nimble’s stamina, while Runcok’s tactical speed is ideally suited to yielding conditions. A strongly-run race would test the younger horse’s endurance.
Race Name: Overlander INH Flat Race
Race Distance: 2m2f181y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 7:40
First: King Rasko Grey
Age: 5
Weight: 12-0
Form: 4- (Promising debut)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Miss J Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Unknown
OR: 116
TS: 42
Probability: First Horse Speculative
Second: Riskaway
Age: 5
Weight: 12-0
Form: 4-322 (Consistent performer)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mr H C Swan
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 116
TS: 73
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: King Rasko Grey represents the premier NH stable and could be anything after one educational run. Riskaway brings solid form but may lack the class of some rivals.
Scenario Analysis: Testing conditions would bring Riskaway’s stamina into play, while better ground would suit the more precocious types. The market moves will be particularly informative in this contest.
Final Summary of Best Value Selection:
Horse: The Yellow Clay
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: -11112 (Unbeaten in completed starts this season)
OR: 159
TS: 146
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Key Advantages:
- Highest official rating in the Champion Novice Hurdle
- Perfect 3/3 record at Punchestown
- Outstanding speed figures for the distance
- Thrives on yielding ground
Improvement Potential: Still relatively unexposed at Grade 1 level and open to further progression. The step up in trip appears to have unlocked significant improvement.
Race Dynamics: Should get an ideal pace setup with several front-runners in the field. His cruising speed and potent finishing kick make him exceptionally hard to pass in the closing stages.
While Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle is arguably the most talented runner on the card, The Yellow Clay represents outstanding value given his progressive profile and dominance in lesser company. His performance metrics suggest he’s ready for this class hike.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Punchestown – 02nd May 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Stanley Asphalt Hunters Chase (15:40)
- Gale Force Jet (85%)
- Fountain House (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Event Power Champion Hunters Chase (16:15)
- Its On The Line (82%)
- Big Interest (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Hanlon Concrete Irish EBF Glencarraig Lady Francis Flood Mares Chase (Grade 2) (16:50)
- Dinoblue (88%)
- Allegorie De Vassy (79%) [Flagged: <80%]
QuinnBet Novice Handicap Chase (Listed) (17:25)
- Lisnagar Fortune (80%)
- Native Speaker (76%) [Flagged: <80%]
Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (18:05)
- The Yellow Clay (84%)
- Final Demand (81%)
Boodles Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) (18:40)
- Constitution Hill (85%)
- State Man (83%)
Uniquely Novice Hurdle (19:10)
- Khrisma (80%)
- Fiver Friday (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Overlander INH Flat Race (19:40)
- King Rasko Grey (80%)
- Leader Des Bordes (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Dinoblue (16:50, Punchestown, 88%)
- Constitution Hill (18:40, Punchestown, 85%)
- The Yellow Clay (18:05, Punchestown, 84%)
- Its On The Line (16:15, Punchestown, 82%)
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Dinoblue (16:50, Punchestown)
- Constitution Hill (18:40, Punchestown)
- The Yellow Clay (18:05, Punchestown)
- Its On The Line (16:15, Punchestown)
Doubles
- Dinoblue + Constitution Hill
- Dinoblue + The Yellow Clay
- Dinoblue + Its On The Line
- Constitution Hill + The Yellow Clay
- Constitution Hill + Its On The Line
- The Yellow Clay + Its On The Line
Trebles
- Dinoblue + Constitution Hill + The Yellow Clay
- Dinoblue + Constitution Hill + Its On The Line
- Dinoblue + The Yellow Clay + Its On The Line
- Constitution Hill + The Yellow Clay + Its On The Line
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Dinoblue + Constitution Hill + The Yellow Clay + Its On The Line
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: The Yellow Clay (84%) –
- Highest Probability: Dinoblue (88%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Final Demand (81%) –
