Bet Smart & Win — Punchestown Race Preview
Thursday 13 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Conor Stone-Walsh
- T: Ian Patrick Donoghue
- Trip: 3m 70y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds (est. from IP): 4.74
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Proven on heavy ground and arrives in superb form, winning three of his last four. The step up to 3m on this testing surface should suit his running style, and his recent completion record is perfect. The model’s high Normalized Probability indicates strong confidence and Above Fair value. Each-way advised (4 places, 1/5).
Details
- J: Tiernan Power Roche
- T: P J Rothwell
- Trip: 3m 70y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds (est. from IP): 8.47
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Lightly raced and potentially well treated off this mark. Last season’s form shows sustained improvement and a clear aptitude for soft/heavy ground. The model flags him as a key danger at Fair value, with the seasonal reappearance the only slight question.
Details
- J: Mark Walsh
- T: Robert Tyner
- Trip: 3m 70y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds (est. from IP): 10.20
- Overround: 111.2%
Analysis
Class-dropper who is well handicapped on old form. The booking of a top jockey is a major positive and he has solid heavy-ground form. With a reliable jumping profile and NP>IP edge, he represents sound each-way value.
Details
- J: J J Slevin
- T: Thomas Gibney
- Trip: 2m 136y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds (est. from IP): 4.78
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Brings the most compelling hurdles form and a proven record on soft/heavy ground. Strong SecEff-J figures suggest he stays on powerfully up the hill and his jumping should stand up to the switch to fences. The model shows clear Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Danny Gilligan
- T: Ross O'Sullivan
- Trip: 2m 136y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds (est. from IP): 6.85
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Showed a good level of form in competitive hurdles here last season. Heavy ground is a slight unknown but his running style suggests he will cope. Yard is in good nick and the model rates him Fair value who can outrun his price.
Details
- J: Sean Flanagan
- T: Anthony McCann
- Trip: 2m 136y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds (est. from IP): 6.13
- Overround: 108.5%
Analysis
Already a chase winner with soft-ground form in the book. His latest run was solid and the step back in trip on heavy ground should help. Brings experience and a Fair value profile to a race where some rivals still have questions to answer.
Details
- J: Jordan Gainford
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 2m 2f 132y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds (est. from IP): 3.19
- Overround: 113.8%
Analysis
Standout on pedigree as a half-sister to Envoi Allen from a powerhouse yard that excels with newcomers. Soft/heavy ground should hold no fears. The model heavily favours her with a strong NP>IP edge and clear Above Fair value.
Details
- J: J J Slevin
- T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
- Trip: 2m 2f 132y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds (est. from IP): 5.75
- Overround: 113.8%
Analysis
Another well-bred filly from a leading stable. The O'Brien team rarely tilt at windmills and any pre-race support would be significant. The model marks her down as Fair value with potential to trouble the favourite.
Details
- J: Michael Kenneally
- T: Declan Queally
- Trip: 2m 2f 132y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds (est. from IP): 16.67
- Overround: 113.8%
Analysis
The only runner with winning form, having scored on heavy ground. Proven fitness and ground suitability are major assets. While the model rates the top-two newcomers higher, she offers solid place value at Fair overall value.
Details
- J: Conor Stone-Walsh
- T: Gavin Cromwell
- Trip: 1m 7f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds (est. from IP): 2.56
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Highly regarded French AQPS recruit who reportedly schools very well at home. Soft-to-heavy ground looks ideal, and the trainer/jockey combination is in top form. The model calculates a strong NP>IP edge and clear Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Danny Gilligan
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 1m 7f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds (est. from IP): 3.83
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
French winner who has already shown a good level of ability. Elliott yard is firing and he sets a clear form standard. The model gives him Fair value and rates him a strong alternative to the favourite.
Details
- J: James Smith
- T: Matthew J Smith
- Trip: 1m 7f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds (est. from IP): 11.11
- Overround: 105.8%
Analysis
Already has a reasonable level of form and should cope with the conditions. Lacks the untapped potential of the top pair but is solid and reliable, with the model viewing him as a place prospect at Fair value.
Details
- J: Donagh Meyler
- T: Noel Meade
- Trip: 1m 7f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds (est. from IP): 2.91
- Overround: 112.9%
Analysis
Boasts standout bumper form, including a third in a Punchestown Grade 1. Proven on soft ground and likely to improve again for the switch to hurdles. The model’s clear top pick with a strong NP>IP edge and Above Fair value.
Details
- J: Danny Gilligan
- T: Gordon Elliott
- Trip: 1m 7f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds (est. from IP): 4.98
- Overround: 112.9%
Analysis
Another with strong bumper form for a powerful yard. Proven on testing ground and has the engine to be very competitive. Marked as the main danger with Fair value.
Details
- J: Darragh O'Keeffe
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 1m 7f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds (est. from IP): 19.23
- Overround: 112.9%
Analysis
Has shown promise in his early hurdle starts and remains open to improvement. With the De Bromhead yard a major positive and an NP>IP edge, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at a bigger price.
Details
- J: Tiernan Power Roche
- T: P J Rothwell
- Trip: 1m 7f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds (est. from IP): 7.14
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Key selection angle is her proven ability in deep ground. Well handicapped on her best heavy-ground efforts and with a sound jumping profile, the model highlights a notable Above Fair value edge.
Details
- J: Philip Byrnes
- T: Edward Cawley
- Trip: 1m 7f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds (est. from IP): 2.49
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Arrives in excellent form following a last-time-out win and is clearly progressive. The ground is a slight unknown, but if he handles it he is the one to beat on bare form. Model rates him Fair value.
Details
- J: Conor Stone-Walsh
- T: Paul Nolan
- Trip: 1m 7f 187y
- Trainer RTF%: 9%
- Odds (est. from IP): 10.31
- Overround: 106.7%
Analysis
Lightly raced filly who remains open to improvement. Her form is working out well and she should handle the testing conditions. Represents each-way potential at Fair value.
Details
- J: Donagh Meyler
- T: Emmet Mullins
- Trip: 2m 4f 164y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (est. from IP): 2.12
- Overround: 104.7%
Analysis
Stylish Punchestown bumper winner who had a valid excuse for a below-par hurdling debut. Expected to step forward significantly back here in softer ground. The model’s strongest selection on the card with a clear NP>IP and Above Fair value profile.
Details
- J: J J Slevin
- T: Henry De Bromhead
- Trip: 2m 4f 164y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds (est. from IP): 3.18
- Overround: 104.7%
Analysis
Showed good form in a hot Leopardstown bumper and is bred to relish this longer trip and testing ground. From a top stable and the model rates him Fair value as the main threat to the favourite.
Details
- J: Danny Mullins
- T: Ms Margaret Mullins
- Trip: 2m 4f 164y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds (est. from IP): 12.50
- Overround: 104.7%
Analysis
Brings a fair level of experience and consistent efforts to the table. Should handle the ground and stay the trip well. Most likely to pick up the pieces if the top two underperform, at Fair value.
Details
- J: Harry Sexton
- T: P A Fahy
- Trip: 2m 4f 164y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds (est. from IP): 16.67
- Overround: 114.5%
Analysis
Back over hurdles from a potentially lenient mark and proven on soft/heavy ground. Course knowledge is a further plus and the model’s NP>IP reading flags strong Above Fair value for each-way players.
Details
- J: Simon Torrens
- T: Aidan Anthony Howard
- Trip: 2m 4f 164y
- Trainer RTF%: N/A
- Odds (est. from IP): 11.11
- Overround: 114.5%
Analysis
In good recent form and another who should relish the testing conditions. Looks well treated and the model marks him as Above Fair value in a wide-open race.
Details
- J: Tiernan Power Roche
- T: P J Rothwell
- Trip: 2m 4f 164y
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds (est. from IP): 11.11
- Overround: 114.5%
Analysis
Course-and-distance winner who is at his best on soft ground. Dropped to an attractive mark and representing a yard already highlighted by the model today, he offers Above Fair each-way value.
Analysis
Heavy-ground suited bumper winner who returns to Punchestown with a strong profile for this 2m4f test. The model expects a marked step forward from his earlier hurdling run, with SecEff-J pointing to a powerful finish, and the Emmet Mullins yard excellent with this type. With a significant NP>IP edge and ideal conditions, this is our Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns most strongly here. Back with confidence.