Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Kildare Hunt Club Cross Country Chase for the Ladies Perpetual Cup
Race Distance: 3m90y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 2:30
First: Fralimonti Bilbery
Age: 7
Weight: 11-7
Form: P24122 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Denis Paul Murphy
Trainer: Mr J W Hendrick
Trainer RTF% Form: 100%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Knockiel Synge
Age: 11
Weight: 11-12
Form: P42843 (Consistent performances)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Peter John Flood
Trainer: Miss Georgie Benson
Trainer RTF% Form: 7%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 115
TS: 75
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Fralimonti Bilbery has shown strong recent form with consistent top-three finishes. Knockiel Synge has experience but may struggle with weight.
Scenario Analysis: If conditions soften further, Knockiel Synge’s stamina could come into play.
Race Name: Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series Final Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m3f93y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 3:05
First: Timmy Tuesday
Age: 7
Weight: 12-5
Form: 021312 (Strong recent form)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Gordon Elliott
Trainer: Mr J H Williamson
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 137
TS: 111
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Stay If U Want To
Age: 6
Weight: 10-12
Form: 227621 (Improving)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Jonjo O’Neill Jr
Trainer: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 116
TS: 123
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Timmy Tuesday has class and form, while Stay If U Want To is progressive but may lack experience.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms, Stay If U Want To could close the gap.
Race Name: Killashee Hotel Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m149y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 3:40
First: Lark In The Mornin
Age: 5
Weight: 10-9
Form: 31-570 (Potential)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Danny Mullins
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 130
TS: 119
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Serienmond
Age: 5
Weight: 10-0
Form: 024013 (Consistent)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Conor Stone-Walsh
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Trainer RTF% Form: 37%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 121
TS: 131
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Lark In The Mornin has class but inconsistent form, while Serienmond is reliable but may lack a turn of foot.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Serienmond’s stamina could be key.
Race Name: KPMG Champion Novice Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m149y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 4:15
First: Kopek Des Bordes
Age: 5
Weight: 11-12
Form: 1-111 (Dominant)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 159
TS: 146
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Salvator Mundi
Age: 5
Weight: 11-12
Form: 6-1151 (Improving)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mr P W Mullins
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 156
TS: 146
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Kopek Des Bordes is the standout, while Salvator Mundi is progressing but may lack the class.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong, Salvator Mundi could challenge late.
Race Name: Dooley Insurance Group Champion Novice Chase
Race Distance: 3m213y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 4:50
First: Ballyburn
Age: 7
Weight: 11-10
Form: 1-1215 (Classy)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 160
TS: 151
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Lecky Watson
Age: 7
Weight: 11-10
Form: 55-111 (Progressive)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Sean O’Keeffe
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 159
TS: 105
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Ballyburn is the class act, while Lecky Watson is unexposed but untested at this level.
Scenario Analysis: If the race turns tactical, Lecky Watson’s stamina could be a factor.
Race Name: Goffs Defender Bumper
Race Distance: 2m149y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 5:25
First: Leader Des Bordes
Age: 4
Weight: 11-10
Form: – (Unraced)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mr P W Mullins
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: –
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Santo Sospir
Age: 4
Weight: 11-10
Form: 1 (Promising)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mr H C Swan
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 115
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Leader Des Bordes is well-regarded, while Santo Sospir has winning form but is untested in this company.
Scenario Analysis: If the race is strongly run, Santo Sospir’s stamina could be an asset.
Race Name: William Hill Champion Chase
Race Distance: 2m98y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 6:00
First: Fact To File
Age: 8
Weight: 11-12
Form: 1-1231 (Elite)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mark Walsh
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 55%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 172
TS: 169
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Marine Nationale
Age: 8
Weight: 11-12
Form: 5-2321 (Classy)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Sean Flanagan
Trainer: Barry Connell
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 167
TS: 165
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Fact To File is the standout, while Marine Nationale is talented but may lack the tactical speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Marine Nationale’s finishing kick could be dangerous.
Race Name: Willie Coonan Memorial INH Flat Race
Race Distance: 2m149y
Racecourse: Punchestown
Time of Race: 6:35
First: Eagle Of Destiny
Age: 4
Weight: 11-3
Form: 2 (Promising)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mr B O’Neill
Trainer: P Twomey
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 114
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Starting Fifteen
Age: 4
Weight: 11-10
Form: 2 (Consistent)
Going: Yielding
Jockey: Mr Finian Maguire
Trainer: E McNamara
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 125
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Eagle Of Destiny has shown ability, while Starting Fifteen is consistent but untested.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Starting Fifteen’s stamina could be key.
Best Value for Money Selection
Out of my analysis for Punchestown on the 29th of April 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Serienmond
Age: 5
Weight: 10-0
Form: 024013 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 121
TS: 131
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Serienmond has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Serienmond presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Punchestown – 29th April 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Kildare Hunt Club Cross Country Chase (14:30)
- Fralimonti Bilbery (Probability: 80%)
- Knockiel Synge (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series Final Handicap Hurdle (15:05)
- Timmy Tuesday (Probability: 82%)
- Wilful (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Killashee Hotel Handicap Hurdle (15:40)
- Wilful (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
- Ascending Lark (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
KPMG Champion Novice Hurdle (16:15)
- Kopek Des Bordes (Probability: 85%)
- Salvator Mundi (Probability: 80%)
Dooley Insurance Group Champion Novice Chase (16:50)
- Impaire Et Passe (Probability: 80%)
- Lecky Watson (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Goffs Defender Bumper (17:25)
- Leader Des Bordes (Probability: 80%)
- Santo Sospir (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
William Hill Champion Chase (18:00)
- El Fabiolo (Probability: 80%)
- Marine Nationale (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Timmy Tuesday (15:05, Punchestown, 82%)
- Kopek Des Bordes (16:15, Punchestown, 85%)
- Impaire Et Passe (16:50, Punchestown, 80%)
- El Fabiolo (18:00, Punchestown, 80%)
Note: All selections meet the ≥80% probability threshold.
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Timmy Tuesday (15:05, Punchestown)
- Kopek Des Bordes (16:15, Punchestown)
- Impaire Et Passe (16:50, Punchestown)
- El Fabiolo (18:00, Punchestown)
Doubles
- Timmy Tuesday + Kopek Des Bordes
- Timmy Tuesday + Impaire Et Passe
- Timmy Tuesday + El Fabiolo
- Kopek Des Bordes + Impaire Et Passe
- Kopek Des Bordes + El Fabiolo
- Impaire Et Passe + El Fabiolo
Trebles
- Timmy Tuesday + Kopek Des Bordes + Impaire Et Passe
- Timmy Tuesday + Kopek Des Bordes + El Fabiolo
- Timmy Tuesday + Impaire Et Passe + El Fabiolo
- Kopek Des Bordes + Impaire Et Passe + El Fabiolo
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Timmy Tuesday + Kopek Des Bordes + Impaire Et Passe + El Fabiolo
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Impaire Et Passe (80%) –
- Highest Probability: Kopek Des Bordes (85%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Leader Des Bordes (80%) –
