Bet Smart & Win — Redcar Race Preview
Tuesday 04 November 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan • T: William Haggas
- Trip: 5f 217y • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Powerful yard; top jockey; NP > IP indicates value.
Details
- J: Jason Hart • T: John & Sean Quinn
- Trip: 5f 217y • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Early experience a plus; fair value; place claims.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr • T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 5f 217y • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Well-bred newcomer; fair value; forecast player.
Details
- J: Luke Morris • T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
- Trip: 7f 219y • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Well placed; strong recent win; the one to beat.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan • T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 7f 219y • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Nursery debut off workable mark; solid place chance.
Details
- J: Warren Fentiman • T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 7f 219y • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Reliable; fair value; trifecta material.
Details
- J: Duran Fentiman • T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 7f • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Well-treated; profile strong despite BF tag; shortlist.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan • T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 7f • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Solid type; jockey booking a plus; competitive.
Details
- J: Jason Hart • T: John & Sean Quinn
- Trip: 7f • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent; BF tag reflects current market; place claims.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan • T: Alan King
- Trip: 1m 2f 1y • Class: 3
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Progressive profile; Above Fair; strong fit for criteria.
Details
- J: Warren Fentiman • T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 1m 2f 1y • Class: 3
- Trainer RTF%: 41%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Good run in stronger race; fair value.
Details
- J: David Nolan • T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m 2f 1y • Class: 3
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent; fair value; big say.
Details
- J: Jason Hart • T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m 5f 218y • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Premier yard; knocking on the door; Above Fair.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez • T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 1m 5f 218y • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Yard in form; fair value; chief danger.
Details
- J: Ben Robinson • T: Adam Nicol
- Trip: 1m 5f 218y • Class: 5
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Arrives winning; fair value; can place.
Details
- J: Kaiya Fraser • T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 5f 217y • Class: 6
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
2lb lower; recent C&D spin solid; ready to strike.
Details
- J: Dale Swift • T: Seb Spencer
- Trip: 5f 217y • Class: 6
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Competitive mark; Above Fair; major player.
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds • T: Jessica Macey
- Trip: 5f 217y • Class: 6
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Consistent; first-time visor; live for the frame.
Details
- J: Warren Fentiman • T: Tina Jackson
- Trip: 5f 217y • Class: 6
- Trainer RTF%: —
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Consistent; ground suits; strong chance.
Details
- J: Cara Tuke • T: Iain Jardine
- Trip: 5f 217y • Class: 6
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Recent C&D winner; still competitive.
Details
- J: Billy Garritty • T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 5f 217y • Class: 6
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
C&D winner; respected; fair value.
Details
- J: Rhys Elliott • T: Mark Walford
- Trip: 7f 219y • Class: 6
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
In the form of her life; Above Fair; confident pick.
Details
- J: Oisin McSweeney • T: Roger Fell
- Trip: 7f 219y • Class: 6
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Last-time-out winner; danger to all.
Details
- J: Jake Dickson • T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 7f 219y • Class: 6
- Trainer RTF%: 42%
- Odds: —
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
C&D winner; fairly treated; completes shortlist.
Analysis
Top stable (Haggas), Above Fair value, ideal setup (Cl5, 7 runners, staying trip). Back with confidence.