Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 1m7f216y
Racecourse: Sandown
Time of Race: 1:20
First: Sorceleur
Age: 5
Weight: 11-3
Form: 122393 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Cobden
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 61%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 118
TS: 128
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Wolf Moon
Age: 5
Weight: 11-8
Form: 7211 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Ben Jones
Trainer: Ben Pauling
Trainer RTF% Form: 42%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 123
TS: 116
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Sorceleur has strong recent form and a high Top Speed rating, making him the standout choice. Wolf Moon is improving and could challenge, but Sorceleur’s consistency gives him the edge.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Wolf Moon’s stamina may come into play, but Sorceleur’s class should prevail.
Race Name: bet365 Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 2m4f10y
Racecourse: Sandown
Time of Race: 1:50
First: Classic Anthem
Age: 7
Weight: 10-7
Form: 429221 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Sean Bowen
Trainer: Jim Boyle
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 123
TS: 119
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Eyed
Age: 8
Weight: 10-9
Form: 1F1122 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jonathan Burke
Trainer: Hughie Morrison
Trainer RTF% Form: 82%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 125
TS: 131
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Classic Anthem’s recent wins and strong form make him the favorite. Eyed has potential but may need softer ground to challenge.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground firms up, Eyed’s speed could be a factor, but Classic Anthem’s consistency should secure the win.
Race Name: bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade 2)
Race Distance: 2m6f164y
Racecourse: Sandown
Time of Race: 2:25
First: Gaelic Warrior
Age: 7
Weight: 11-8
Form: 1-2231 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 170
TS: 153
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Pic D’orhy
Age: 10
Weight: 11-8
Form: 21P-11 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Cobden
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 61%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 162
TS: 132
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Gaelic Warrior’s superior OR and TS make him the clear favorite. Pic D’orhy is consistent but may lack the class to challenge the top pick.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Pic D’orhy’s stamina could be an advantage, but Gaelic Warrior’s class should prevail.
Race Name: bet365 Select Hurdle (Grade 2)
Race Distance: 2m5f110y
Racecourse: Sandown
Time of Race: 3:00
First: Kitzbuhel
Age: 5
Weight: 11-8
Form: 12-115 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 153
TS: 116
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Lucky Place
Age: 6
Weight: 11-10
Form: 24-117 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: James Bowen
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 153
TS: 123
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Kitzbuhel’s strong form and trainer/jockey combo give him the edge. Lucky Place is consistent but may lack the finishing kick.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Lucky Place’s stamina could come into play, but Kitzbuhel’s class should secure the win.
Race Name: bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1)
Race Distance: 1m7f99y
Racecourse: Sandown
Time of Race: 3:35
First: Jonbon
Age: 9
Weight: 11-10
Form: -11121 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mark Walsh
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Trainer RTF% Form: 48%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 169
TS: 165
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Il Etait Temps
Age: 7
Weight: 11-10
Form: 2131-1 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Danny Mullins
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 160
TS: 154
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Jonbon’s exceptional OR and TS make him the clear favorite. Il Etait Temps is talented but may struggle to match the top pick’s speed.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Il Etait Temps could challenge, but Jonbon’s class should prevail.
Race Name: bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Race Distance: 3m4f146y
Racecourse: Sandown
Time of Race: 4:10
First: High Class Hero
Age: 8
Weight: 10-8
Form: P-2212 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 148
TS: 126
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Resplendent Grey
Age: 7
Weight: 10-2
Form: 112244 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Sean Bowen
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 142
TS: 145
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: High Class Hero’s strong form and trainer/jockey combo make him the favorite. Resplendent Grey is consistent but may lack the stamina for this distance.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Resplendent Grey’s stamina could be a factor, but High Class Hero’s class should secure the win.
Race Name: bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 2m3f173y
Racecourse: Sandown
Time of Race: 4:45
First: Mostly Sunny
Age: 6
Weight: 10-5
Form: 205751 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Skelton
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 49%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 115
TS: 124
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Jump Allen
Age: 6
Weight: 11-4
Form: 154312 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Cobden
Trainer: W P Mullins
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 128
TS: 106
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Mostly Sunny’s recent form and low weight make him the value pick. Jump Allen is consistent but may struggle with the weight.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Jump Allen’s stamina could come into play, but Mostly Sunny’s recent form gives him the edge.
Out of my analysis for Sandown on the 26th of April 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR (Official Rating), TS (Top Speed), and RTF’s (Ran To Form):
Horse: Mostly Sunny
Age: 6
Weight: 10-5
Form: 205751 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 115
TS: 124
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Mostly Sunny has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making him a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit him, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Mostly Sunny presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Sandown – 26th April 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
13:20 – bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle
- Give It To Me Oj (Probability: 75%)
- Serious Challenge (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]
13:50 – bet365 Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase
- Riskintheground (Probability: 78%)
- Classic Anthem (Probability: 74%) [Flagged: <80%]
14:25 – bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade 2)
- Gaelic Warrior (Probability: 85%)
- Gentleman De Mee (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
15:00 – bet365 Select Hurdle (Grade 2)
- Lucky Place (Probability: 82%)
- Take No Chances (Probability: 76%) [Flagged: <80%]
15:35 – bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1)
- Jonbon (Probability: 88%)
- Il Etait Temps (Probability: 80%)
16:10 – bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase
- Dancing City (Probability: 83%)
- Minella Cocooner (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]
16:45 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle
- Bunting (Probability: 80%)
- Push The Button (Probability: 76%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Jonbon (15:35, Sandown, 88%)
- Gaelic Warrior (14:25, Sandown, 85%)
- Dancing City (16:10, Sandown, 83%)
- Lucky Place (15:00, Sandown, 82%)
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Jonbon (15:35, Sandown)
- Gaelic Warrior (14:25, Sandown)
- Dancing City (16:10, Sandown)
- Lucky Place (15:00, Sandown)
Doubles
- Jonbon + Gaelic Warrior
- Jonbon + Dancing City
- Jonbon + Lucky Place
- Gaelic Warrior + Dancing City
- Gaelic Warrior + Lucky Place
- Dancing City + Lucky Place
Trebles
- Jonbon + Gaelic Warrior + Dancing City
- Jonbon + Gaelic Warrior + Lucky Place
- Jonbon + Dancing City + Lucky Place
- Gaelic Warrior + Dancing City + Lucky Place
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Jonbon + Gaelic Warrior + Dancing City + Lucky Place
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Dancing City (83%) –
- Highest Probability: Jonbon (88%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Bunting (80%) –
